QB ATS Value
Compare the difference in the start and backup value to the spread.
What are QB spread values, and why should you care?
QBs are the most impactful NFL players on their teams, and their value against the spread (ATS) is of great importance in the betting market.
In this table, we provide the ATS value of every starting QB relative to that of his backup.
Example: Let's say that a starter is injured in practice and his backup will fill in for him in the coming game. If we have the starter's ATS value listed as "+6" then that would mean we project him to be worth six points to his team -- and to bettors -- compared to his backup.
In the event of a QB injury, this table can be used as a resource to help bettors project spreads, handicap matchups, and navigate the ATS market.
How is the value of each QB against the spread determined?
Each QB's value against the spread is determined by -- among other factors -- his expected points added and completion percentage over expected (per RBs Don't Matter), QBR (per ESPN), QB Elo (per NFElo), and adjusted yards per pass attempt (per Pro Football Reference) as well as team EPA and success rate.