2023 Team Preview: Denver Broncos
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Denver Broncos, looking at key questions like:
- Can Russell Wilson rebound after a disastrous 2022 campaign?
- Who is the RB to target between Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine?
- Which Broncos WRs other than Jerry Jeudy can emerge in fantasy?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Broncos will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
The Nathaniel Hackett “era” is mercifully over almost as soon as it began. Longtime Saints head coach Sean Payton is the new man in charge of Broncos country. He’s joined by former Saints QB coach (and more recently Chargers offensive coordinator) Joe Lombardi and former Broncos head coach (and more recently Cardinals defensive coordinator) Vance Joseph.
It’s hardly a given that Payton’s offense in Denver this coming season will be a carbon copy of what he did in New Orleans. Still, it’d make sense if Payton were to once again deploy a balanced offense.
Payton’s pass rates over expected (PROE) during his final six seasons with the Saints were as follows:
- 2021: -6.2% (No. 29)
- 2020: -3.8% (No. 24)
- 2019: +4% (No. 3)
- 2018: -1.5% (No. 20)
- 2017: -1.4% (No. 18)
- 2016: +1.9% (No. 7)
The Saints ranked second, 15th, 13th, 23rd, 28th, and 14th, respectively, in neutral situation pace during that span. Pending a true return to form from Wilson, there might be a limited amount of pass-game volume to go around on this crowded offense.
Additionally, the Broncos have made plenty of changes to their roster since the start of free agency in March. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Denver in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: Backup Brett Rypien left for the Rams, and the Broncos signed Jarrett Stidham to replace him on a two-year, $10 million deal with $5 million guaranteed.
- RB: Backups Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers), Mike Boone (Texans), Latavius Murray (Bills) and Marlon Mack (unrestricted free agent) are all out. Instead, Denver signed Samaje Perine to a two-year, $7.5 million contract ($3 million guaranteed) and added Tony Jones on a one-year, $940,000 deal.
- WR: Freddie Swain departed for Miami, and the Broncos added Marquez Callaway on a small one-year, $1.1 million deal.
- TE: Andrew Beck and Eric Saubert signed with the Texans and Dolphins, respectively, and Eric Tomlinson remains an unrestricted free agent. Instead, Denver signed blocking TE Chris Manhertz to a two-year, $6 million contract and traded for Adam Trautman, who played for Payton in New Orleans.
The Broncos only had one fantasy-relevant draft pick, Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims (2.63), who should have a good chance to contribute early if the history of draft capital has taught us anything.
QBs
- Russell Wilson (Ian’s QB18)
- Jarrett Stidham (QB55)
Wilson’s first year in Broncos country marked just the third time in his career that he failed to throw for at least 25 TDs, and his rushing yards per game dipped under 20 for the second season in a row.
The 242 million dollar question is: can new head coach Sean Payton get “Mr. Unlimited” back to cooking like it’s pre-2022 again? Here are Wilson's fantasy points per game (PPG) since he entered the league:
- 2022: 15.0 (QB18)
- 2021: 17.3 (QB13)
- 2020: 22.5 (QB6)
- 2019: 20.5 (QB5)
- 2018: 18.7 (QB11)
- 2017: 21.7 (QB1)
- 2016: 16.8 (QB15)
- 2015: 21.0 (QB3)
- 2014: 20.6 (QB3)
- 2013: 16.9 (QB11)
- 2012: 17.4 (QB9)
Back-to-back finishes outside of the top-12 fantasy QBs is hardly ideal for someone who will be turning 35 years old in November. The history of QBs running less as they get older also doesn't help matters for “DangeRuss” in 2023.
Of course, Wilson did ever so briefly flash a fantasy ceiling towards the end of last year, posting three top-five fantasy QB finishes in his final four starts of 2022. This isn’t a “2015 Peyton Manning” or “2020 Drew Brees” situation where we have to worry about the veteran’s ability to still throw the deep ball.
We’re all well aware that the floor is low for Wilson in 2023, but that's more or less where his ADP is priced! With a current QB18 ADP (132.3 overall), Wilson is going two-plus rounds behind guys like Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, both of whom were valued similarly heading into last season.
You don’t need to go out of your way to draft Wilson in 2023, but his cheap ADP makes him an alluring dart throw, and he also has late-round stacking partners with Marvin Mims and Greg Dulcich both regularly available in the double-digit rounds.
In the course of his career as an NFL head coach, Payton has only overseen one passing attack that failed to rank in the top-11 most efficient units in net yards per attempt. Don’t be surprised if a more sound offensive scheme and healthier surrounding talent help Wilson get back to cooking at least a little bit in 2023.
RBs
- Javonte Williams (Ian’s RB34)
- Samaje Perine (RB37)
Any discussion on Williams has to start with how he's recovering from last year’s devastating season-ending knee injury. I wrote the following on Williams in my offseason injury report roundup:
“Tore both the ACL, LCL and PCL in his knee. While Broncos GM George Patton said Williams is “on track” for Week 1, Dr. Jeff Mueller notes this is the rising third-year back’s best-case scenario. The “worst case” scenario is a 12 to 14-month recovery with a slow ramp up a la what J.K. Dobbins went through last season.
Beat writer reports indicate that Williams could be out “well into” the 2023 season, and Dr. Porras notes that since 2010 five of 13 qualified running backs with ACL and PCL tears occurring between August and November still started the next season on the PUP list.
Further hurting matters: One of Matthew Berry’s 23 interesting things he heard at the combine: “There is a VERY wide range of possibilities regarding his (Williams) return. There is a chance he is healthy to start the year. There is a chance he misses multiple games. And there is actually a chance he misses all of next year. I was told he is currently a lot more hurt than the team is letting on publicly and that the Broncos are secretly nervous.”
Of course, that was from back in March, and some recent updates have painted a slightly more positive outlook for Williams.
First, it was revealed that Williams worked in a limited capacity at OTAs. Payton also noted that Williams is “doing well” and that he’s “optimistic” about the progress being made.
These still aren't exactly resounding endorsements about Williams’s ability to suit up in Week 1, but a closer analysis on the recovery from Dr. Jeff Mueller is enough to feel good about this not exactly resembling J.K. Dobbins’s complicated return from injury in 2022.
Of course, Payton has already gone on the record about his preference for using two RBs. It’s likely, if not inevitable, that the newly-signed Perine will also be heavily involved in this offense. Payton has never fed a RB 250-plus carries in a single season in his tenure as head coach.
Nobody is debating how awesome Williams was at breaking tackles as a rookie. His efficiency numbers were nothing short of phenomenal in 2021:
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) rushing grade: 76.0 (No. 13 among 30 qualifying RBs)
- Yards per carry: 4.4 (No. 11)
- Yards after contact per carry: 3.42 (No. 4)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.31 (No. 1)
- Explosive run rate: 0.12 (No. 7)
And yet, Perine could play on quite a few fantasy-friendly pass-first situations considering the veteran’s ability to keep Joe Mixon on the bench on third downs over the years.
Add in the potential for Williams to be limited in terms of playing time and the possibility of a slower recovery from the knee injury, and I’ve had a tough time drafting him at ADP in the same range as potential workhorses like Rachaad White and James Conner. Even guys like Alvin Kamara and Zach Charbonnet, who have similar upside and workload concerns, are available just behind Williams at his current RB29 ADP (93.9 overall).
Meanwhile, Perine is a prime “flex with benefits” option going in the same range as RBs like A.J. Dillon and Antonio Gibson, both of whom have similar potential to provide weekly RB3 production and major injury upside if Aaron Jones or Brian Robinson were to miss time.
I’ve been happy to scoop up Perine at his RB35 ADP (106.6 overall), but the entire RB3 tier in his ADP range is full of great values considering that they’re all priced after the top-50 WRs. In fact, Perine is my sixth most-drafted RB as of this writing after having completed about 85 best ball drafts. Be sure to check out Fantasy Life’s new (and free!) Best Ball Hub tool to get awesome analysis on your best ball lineups and player exposures.
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WRs
- Jerry Jeudy (Ian’s WR21)
- Courtland Sutton (WR49)
- Tim Patrick (WR73)
- Marvin Mims (WR74)
Jeudy continued to flash the sort of high-end route-running ability that has been on display ever since he entered the league in 2022. Maybe he didn't display his lethal double moves quite as often in 2022, but this was still a player who made his presence felt on more than a few occasions throughout the season.
Last year, Jeudy's 2.18 yards per route run was tied for 12th among WRs, and his 77.9 PFF receiving grade ranked 21st, so he has the underlying efficiency numbers of a stud WR…if Denver's overall offense can improve. Regardless, Jeudy’s end-of-season boom shouldn’t be ignored. Here are Jeudy's receiving lines and positional rankings in PPR over the final five games of 2022:
- Week 14: 8-73-3, WR1
- Week 15: 7-76-0, WR22
- Week 16: 6-117-0, WR14
- Week 17: 7-38-0, WR28
- Week 18: 5-154-0, WR3
Of course, Payton’s new offense won't necessarily feature Jeudy ahead of Sutton or even Patrick (seriously). It also remains to be seen whether Wilson can rebound from his career-worst 2022 campaign or if a Broncos offense that ranked dead last in scoring last season can improve and return to being a fantasy-friendly environment.
Ultimately, I’m in on Jeudy at his WR21 ADP (41.1 overall), going alongside fellow WRs on questionable offenses like Christian Watson, Drake London, and Terry McLaurin. Don’t be afraid to bet on Jeudy, who's still just 24 years old, to finally boom in a major way heading into his first NFL season without a QB change.
Buying into Sutton, even at a much lower ADP, is far more difficult for me. His 72-1,112-6 receiving line back in 2019 was undoubtedly good, but back-to-back disappointing seasons of 58-776-2 and 64-829-2, respectively, have left a lot to be desired.
Oct 17, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) attempts to catch the ball as Los Angeles Chargers cornerback J.C. Jackson (27) defends in the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
This fact has not been lost on Payton, although offseason trade rumors have gone nowhere to this point.
Sutton was just the WR42 in PPR PPG in 2022, and his vastly inferior per-route metrics compared to Jeudy on the same offense last year has me fading the soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran. Contested-catch phenoms like Sutton can look fantastic one year, but the cliff can come quickly and harshly in fantasy land (see Bryant, Dez and Golladay, Kenny).
As for the rest of the Broncos WRs, Mims has the speed to break some big plays even if he's not a Week 1 starter as a rookie. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had this to say about Mims in his ever-excellent draft guide, “The Beast”:
“Overall, Mims must prove himself vs. press-man coverage and expand his route-running inventory with improved stem balance/footwork, but his bread and butter will always be his field-stretching speed and finishing skills. He will add an explosive element to an NFL offense as a rotational rookie receiver and punt returner.”
As for Patrick, he was spotted already sitting courtside with Wilson and Payton, and Patrick is expected to slide back into a starting role after missing all of 2022 with a torn ACL. Already a full participant at OTAs, Patrick will look to return to form to the solid seasons he had in 2020 (51-742-6) and 2021 (53-734-5). Denver is paying him too much not to, as Patrick is currently one of just 29 WRs with a total contract value of at least $30 million.
There's also K.J. Hamler and Marquez Callaway to consider. Hamler could be on the outside looking in after the team’s decision to use Day 2 draft capital on Mims, especially after Hamler suffered a torn pec in March that's expected to sideline him for four to six months. And while Callaway set career-high marks in receptions (46), receiving yards (698), and TDs (6) with Payton in 2021, his miniscule one-year contract indicates that he's mostly a depth signing.
And finally, it's unlikely but possible that Kendall Hinton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey could factor into the equation as well. Of the Denver WRs not named Jeudy or Sutton, I’ve been most willing to throw late-round darts at Patrick and Mims. Patrick seems cemented as a starter in three-WR sets if healthy, and Mims's field-stretching ability could provide boom weeks in best ball land.
TEs
- Greg Dulcich (Ian’s TE16)
Hamstring problems didn’t help Dulcich start or end his rookie season in style, but five top-12 PPR weekly TE finishes in between were helpful to his loyal fantasy managers.
Despite being akin more to a WR than a TE, the 2022 Broncos were willing to feature Dulcich on a near-every down basis. He played at least 70% of the offense’s snaps in all but three games and never finished under the 59% mark. Of course, we'll see if Dulcich can replicate that kind of snap share under Payton.
Jimmy Graham was an elite fantasy TE back in the day, but he was the only Saints TE to average over 12 PPR PPG during Payton’s tenure in New Orleans from 2006 to 2021. And 2019 Jared Cook (12.0) and 2015 Ben Watson (11.9) were the only other TEs who averaged over 9.5 PPR PPG with Payton, so there's a wide range of outcomes for Dulcich in 2023.
Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich (80) runs after the catch during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
On a scale of Jimmy Graham to Coby Fleener, I’m nervous about Dulcich's usage and production being closer to Fleener than Graham, at least for this coming year. Dulcich was the third-worst run-blocking TE in 2022 per PFF, so he doesn’t necessarily profile as an every-down option even if he leads all Denver TEs in targets and receiving stats in 2023.
A quick look at every target thrown his way as a rookie does reveal that several of Dulcich's biggest plays resulted from brutal coverage busts. However, it's also worth noting that Dulcich did show off the sort of athleticism to threaten defenses downfield. It’s also legal for Dulcich, like many players at the position, to get better in his second season.
Ultimately, I’m fine with Dulcich’s current TE14 ADP (138.2 overall), although I still prefer later-round options like Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at cost and even straight up.
It’s cool that Payton sees Dulcich filling the offense’s “joker” role in a similar manner as guys like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and Alvin Kamara, but the flip side of that coin is that Dulcich might be too much of a tweener to have a full-time TE role. After all, it's not the best sign that the Broncos went out of their way to sign Manhertz and trade for Trautman this offseason, both of whom are more traditional in-line TEs.
2023 Win Total: 8.5
- -105 on the over
2021 and 2022 marked the only seasons of Wilson’s career where he failed to win at least nine games. Payton also won nine or more games in 10 of his 15 years in New Orleans.
On defense, pretty much all of the blue-chip defensive pieces from 2022 remain in place, so this team probably only needs an average offense in order to flirt with this win total.
Facing a last-place schedule with winnable cross-conference matchups against the NFC North, I’ll take over 8.5 wins for a squad with little room to go but up despite their tough divisional matchups against the Chiefs and Chargers.
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