2023 Team Preview: New England Patriots

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the New England Patriots, looking at key questions like:

1. Was 2022 just a down year for Mac Jones or a sign of even worse things to come?
2. Will Rhamondre Stevenson (again) be featured as the offense’s three-down workhorse?
3. Is there a WR or TE worth overly pursuing in this crowded passing game?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Patriots will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable Offseason Moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

The Patriots are no exception. While head coach Bill Belichick is back for his 24th year in New England, often criticized defensive coordinator turned play-caller Matt Patricia is now working with the Eagles. His replacement: former Patriots OC turned Texans head coach turned Alabama OC, Bill O’Brien.

Maybe Belichick and O’Brien’s history together brings out the best of both, although the Houston years weren’t exactly anything to write home about, considering O’Brien never led a top-10 offense in terms of yards or points despite having the likes of Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal.

The good news is that BOB did show a willingness to post a higher pass rate over expectation (PROE) and neutral situation pace than the 11th- and 17th-ranked 2022 Patriots:

• 2020: +5.4% PROE (No. 6); 30.27 seconds per play (No. 15)
• 2019: +1.2% (No. 9); 30.49 (No. 14)
• 2018: -0.9% (No. 18); 30.99 (No. 15)
• 2017: -4% (No. 23); 29.57 (No. 8)
• 2016: -3.1% (No. 27); 30.5 (No. 16)

Additionally, the Patriots have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left New England in some way, shape or form this offseason:

• QB: Longtime backup QB Brian Hoyer left to join Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas. The Patriots signed ex-Cardinals/Ravens QB Trace McSorley (one-year, $940,000) to compete for the backup job.
• RB: Early-down RB Damien Harris was signed away by the Bills, leading to the Patriots taking on ex-Jaguars/Jets RB James Robinson (two-year, $4 million) to a team-friendly deal that includes just $150,000 guaranteed.
• WR: No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers joined former OC Josh McDaniels with the Raiders, while on-and-off starter Nelson Agholor signed with the Ravens. This led to New England handing ex-Steelers/Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (three-year, $25.5 million) the sort of deal that *should* lead to a featured job.
• TE: The Patriots traded $50 million TE Jonnu Smith to the Falcons, where he’ll reunite with former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Solution: Sign ex-Dolphins “TE” Mike Gesicki (one-year, $4.5 million) to work alongside incumbent starter Hunter Henry.

The Patriots didn’t add any fantasy-relevant players to the squad until Day 3. Even then, it took until the sixth round for LSU WR Kayshon Boutte (6.187) and Liberty WR Demario Douglas (6.210) to hear their names called. The former WR, in particular, has more upside than most late-round picks; just realize the history of draft capital tells us not to expect too much from these sorts of assets more times than not.

QBs

• Mac Jones (Ian’s QB32)
• Bailey Zappe (QB41)

Jones looked like the Patriots’ future under center after leading them to 10 wins as a rookie. His counting numbers weren’t out of this world, but at a minimum, it was fair to be optimistic about what he could do with better weapons and more experience.

Then 2022 happened. 

Blame everything on Matt Patricia all you want; either way, it wasn’t pretty.

The main problem in fantasy land is that far right column: Jones wasn’t even close to someone managers could rely on during 2021 when things were right, so simply getting back to the good ole days won’t be enough to expect meaningful counting numbers in 2022.

Credit to O’Brien for helping Deshaun Watson average 22 fantasy points per game during their time together, but the results from the rest of his QBs were rather horrendous.

• Brian Hoyer: 15.2 fantasy points per game in 2015
• Ryan Fitzpatrick: 15 in 2015
• Case Keenum: 11.5 in 2014
• Brock Osweiler: 11.2 in 2016
• T.J. Yates: 8.5 in 2017
• Ryan Mallett: 7.1 in 2014-2015
• Tom Savage: 6.2 in 2016-2017

It’s arguable that those mid-2010s Texans offensive environments with DeAndre Hopkins and either older Andre Johnson or younger Will Fuller were better than what Jones is entering in 2023.

Dec 24, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) checks with head coach Bill Belichick, left, and senior football advisor Matt Patricia, second from left, during the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Head coach Bill Belichick said he “absolutely” feels the same about Jones this year as he did prior to training camp in 2022. This comes after reports that Belichick had shopped the former first-round QB earlier in the offseason.

Throw in a potentially shorter leash than usual with the starting job after Bailey Zappe proved to be competent in 2022, and Jones deserves to be ranked as the lowest starting QB. 

He should be behind guys like Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Ryan Tannehill and even Baker Mayfield, who each either theoretically possess more fantasy-friendly dual-threat ability or have already proven capable of supplying higher highs in the box score than the Patriots’ QB1.

RBs

• Rhamondre Stevenson (Ian’s RB10) 
• Pierre Strong Jr. (RB55)
• James Robinson (RB62)

Stevenson racked up 1,461 total yards and six touchdowns during his breakout 2022 campaign, displaying plenty of skill as both a rusher (13th in PFF rushing grade) and receiver (14th) along the way.

The man made more than a few plays that made his fantasy truthers very proud.

The only potential problem is: History tells us not to get overly comfortable with the Patriots backfield. The Patriots’ No. 1 running back in PPR points per game since 2010 has been as follows (minimum 8 games):

• 2022: Stevenson (RB10)
• 2021: Damien Harris (RB20)
• 2020: Rex Burkhead (RB35)
• 2019: James White (RB23)
• 2018: White (RB9)
• 2017: Burkhead (RB18)
• 2016: LeGarrette Blount (RB15)
• 2015: Blount (RB38)
• 2014: Shane Vereen (RB31)
• 2013: Vereen (RB8)
• 2012: Stevan Ridley (RB20)
• 2011: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB30)
• 2010: Green-Ellis (RB20)

Plenty of good, but also lots of turnover. The good news for Stevenson is his expected status as the primary pass-down back puts him with the list’s better company.

Of course, it wasn’t like Stevenson was simply fed a workhorse role from Week 1 last season. The Patriots’ backfield was largely a walking graveyard all year:

• James White: Retired in August before the season.
• Ty Montgomery: Suffered an ankle injury in the final game of the preseason, played – and out-snapped Stevenson – in Week 1, then was placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. He missed the rest of the season.
• Damien Harris: Suffered separate hamstring and thigh injuries that limited him to just 11 games. Note that Harris had more carries (94) than Stevenson (88) in the eight games that he was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps.

Credit to Stevenson for holding off the likes of Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor, but this was far more of a committee backfield with the top dogs healthy than most likely remember.

Of course, Harris is now a member of #BillsMafia, and the Patriots did little to add any sort of real competition to the room. Even former Jaguars and Jets RB James Robinson is on just a two-year, $4 million contract that includes just $150,000 in fully guaranteed money.

Jan 8, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs behind the block of center David Andrews (60) on Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

New OC Bill O’Brien also showed a decent enough tendency to feature his lead back in Houston, handing the likes of Arian Foster (298 touches), Lamar Miller (299, 274, 235) and Carlos Hyde (255) solid workloads over the years. This even persisted over the last two seasons with Alabama, as Brian Robinson (306 touches) and Jahmyr Gibbs (195 in 12 games) were heavily leaned on as their backfield’s lead option.

Ultimately, Stevenson is tough to keep out of the position’s top-10 options in both half- and full-PPR scoring thanks to his stranglehold on the backfield’s fantasy-friendly pass-down work. His per-game receiving production was up there with the league’s best backs in 2022:

1. Austin Ekeler (12.3 PPR points per game from purely receiving)
2. Christian McCaffrey (11.1)
3. Jerick McKinnon (9.5)
4. Leonard Fournette (9)
5. Joe Mixon (8.3)
6. Alvin Kamara (7.9)
7. Aaron Jones (7.6)
8. D’Andre Swift (7.5)
9. Stevenson (6.9)

Still, this is about the point in drafts where I’m more willing to start eating up WRs than diving too deep into the RB position. Things get absolutely gross at receiver after the first seven to eight rounds; I haven’t been taking Stevenson in the third *if* already blessed with one of the position’s top dogs in round one or two.

The potential for Strong to seize a good amount of Harris’ early-down work makes him a sneaky-solid late-round dart, although it’s far from a given for guys like Ty Montgomery, Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor also wouldn’t factor in. Be careful about drafting any amount of Robinson, considering early 52-man roster projections have him on the outside looking in.

WRs

• JuJu Smith-Schuster (Ian’s WR45)
• Tyquan Thornton (WR81)
• DeVante Parker (WR95)
• Kayshon Boutte (WR103)
• Kendrick Bourne (WR121)

The expectation is that JuJu will essentially take over the Jakobi Meyers role, which produced an average of 6.7 targets per game over the past three seasons.

Give the tik-toker credit for rebounding with a 78-933-3 receiving line with the Chiefs in 2022. His 9.2 yards per target were the most he averaged since his rookie season. Most impressive was JuJu's ability after the catch.

He ranked seventh among 80 qualified WRs in yards after the catch per reception (5.9) during his first season in Kansas City, and the production wasn’t overly fluky as evidenced by his sixth-place ranking in yards after the catch above expectation (Next-Gen Stats).

The Patriots have all sorts of targets up for grabs with Meyers (Raiders), Nelson Agholor (Ravens) and Jonnu Smith (Falcons) out of the picture. They could also save $6.2M by releasing DeVante Parker at any point. Overall, New England boasts top-five marks in vacated air yards and targets; this is an objectively great landing spot as far as available opportunity goes.

Smith-Schuster is still just 26 years old and once again finds himself in an offense with few other proven avenues to go with the football. Of course, a big season is contingent on OC Bill O'Brien 1.) Getting Mac Jones to look more like the guy we saw in 2021 vs. 2022, and 2.) Making life a bit more fantasy-friendly for a Patriots WR group that ranks 28th in expected PPR points over the past three seasons.

Jan 1, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (9) runs the ball against the Denver Broncos during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I was surprised to see my ranking on JuJu come in above consensus (WR51 ADP). But either way, he’s at the point in fantasy drafts where the RB value far surpasses anything at WR. For this reason, I’ve been reluctant to get overly exposed to someone who didn’t exactly ball the hell out (WR36 in PPR points per game) last season despite being in arguably the best situation possible. So Smith-Schuster’s positional ranking is fine, but give me the low-end RB3 with guys like A.J. Dillon, Brian Robinson, Devon Achane, and more ahead of him.

As for the other New England WRs:

• Thornton: Boasts the best 2023 leap potential thanks to his status as a 2022 second-round pick with a different field-stretching skill set than just about anybody else on this roster. He’s the only Patriots WR I’ve gone out of my way to draft in the later rounds.
• Parker: Flashed some patented grown man catches and posted 5-156-0 and 6-79-2 performances last season, but ultimately commanded just 4.1 targets per game in his 11 contests in which he played at least 25 snaps.
• Boutte: Sixth-round rookie looks to be on the outside looking in on three-WR sets and isn’t guaranteed to make the team.
• Bourne: Looked like the offense’s best WR at times in 2021, only to be in and out of the starting lineup in 2022 while failing to provide the same elite-level efficiency.

Reminder: This offense also traditionally loves to keep the TE position involved as well.

TEs

• Hunter Henry (Ian’s TE22)
• Mike Gesicki (TE23)

Despite his 95th-percentile athleticism, Gesicki relies on volume to generate fantasy points. Even in his 2021 breakout season (106 targets), he hit uninspiring marks of 1.45 yards per route run (13th among TEs) and 3.2 yards after the catch per reception (20th), and 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per target (13th).

Maybe reuniting with the man who recruited him to come to Penn State back in the day produces the first locked-in starting job of Gesicki’s career, but that will have to come at the expense of Henry, who saw his production slip in 2022 (41-509-2) after a productive 2021 (50-603-9) campaign.

Jan 15, 2023; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki (88) celebrates a touchdown reception against the Buffalo Bills during the first half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

It’s unclear if the Patriots will reduce one of JuJu, Thornton or Parker to a part-time role in order to make both Henry and Gesicki full-time options. The former’s status as the league’s eighth-highest-paid TE on an annual basis ($12.5 million per year) is certainly stronger than the latter ($4.5 million per year).

Ultimately, Gesicki has always been more of a WR than a TE and isn’t even guaranteed to start in this offense, let alone finish among the top-three target getters. It’d make sense if he’s a bit more involved than Jonnu Smith was last season – which isn’t great for Henry – making the most-likely answer to which Patriots TE to draft in fantasy this season: No.

2023 Win Total: 7.5 (-125 juice on the over)

Belichick has posted 7-9, 10-7 and 8-9 records in the post-TB12 era. The team certainly had some bad breaks with the whole Jakobi play, late-game fumble vs. the Bengals and non-Henry TD on Thanksgiving.

That said, this offense was bad last season. They ranked just 24th in EPA per play and never looked like a group capable of helping out the league’s second-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play.

Suddenly the AFC East is far from sad, with Jones clearly standing out as the division’s worst QB at this point in time. Throw in a rough draw in landing the NFC East on their 2023 schedule and the main reason for optimism and change being … the return of Bill O’Brien?

I’m taking under 7.5 wins for a football team that wasn’t particularly good in 2022 and hasn’t done enough since to make me believe major change is on the way.

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