NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Odds and Bets: Jeremiyah Love Is The Deserving Favorite

And the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is… Cleveland Browns quarterback Connor Roarke!

Okay, maybe not. Even in Hollywood, the Browns can’t catch a break.

Let’s talk about the real race.

If you’re betting OROY this early, the goal is to identify who’s going to make an immediate impact. Volume, role and draft capital drive this award and, historically, that means staying near the top of the board.

Over the last two decades, just three winners were drafted outside the first round:

Alvin Kamara, 3rd Round (2017)
Dak Prescott, 4th Round (2016)
Eddie Lacy, 2nd Round (2013)

That’s it.

19 offensive players went in Round 1. Only nine play fantasy-relevant skill positions.

Let’s narrow the field the right way with our 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year bets.

Betting Favorites For 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year

Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | +250

Why this wins: Immediate three-down workload and elite talent on a rebuilding team.

Players at only three positions have earned Offensive Rookie of the Year since the award’s inception. Running backs have dominated with 35 wins, followed by a dozen at each quarterback and wide receiver.

Bodes well for this year’s third overall pick, though it’s worth noting Kyler Murray and Saquon Barkley are the only preseason favorites to win OROY in the last decade. Barkley is also the last halfback to earn the honor way back in 2018, courtesy of an absurd 2,000-yard, 15-TD debut, and he’s the lone ball carrier to be drafted higher than Love since.

Arizona’s depth chart includes veterans Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, but the Cardinals and new head coach Mike LaFleur didn’t use a top-five pick on Love to have him split carries. This is about intent. The Notre Dame product averaged 1,500 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns across his sophomore and junior seasons, while drawing comparisons to fellow game-breaking, dual-threat backs like Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey.

Fernando Mendoza | QB | LV | +350

Why this wins: First overall pick who eventually starts, and a massive narrative upside if Las Vegas improves.

This is where timing is relevant.

Fernando Mendoza may not start Week 1 with Kirk Cousins in the building, but that uncertainty is also your edge. If you believe the first overall pick eventually takes over (duh), you’re better off waiting for a dip in price before jumping in. After all, Tyler Shough was the Rookie of the Year runner-up last season and only made nine starts. Voters are drawn to QBs, and Mendoza is the only one in a weak class with a visible route to at least 10 starts.

The upside is clear. Mendoza is coming off a Heisman-winning (3,500+ yards, 41 TDs, 72% competition rate) championship season for undefeated Indiana and he steps into an offense with legitimate weapons in Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty.

It also won’t hurt being coached by Klink Kubiak, who just leveled up Sam Darnold into a Super Bowl champ. A minority owner with seven Lombardi’s may even show up at a practice or two.

Quarterbacks have won four of the last seven OROY awards, including Jayden Daniels (2024) and C.J. Stroud (2023). Both improved their teams by at least seven wins from the previous season.

If Mendoza lifts the Raiders into playoff relevance fresh off a 3-14 disaster, the narrative writes itself.

Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | +500

Why this wins: Path to WR1 volume and big-play ability in a thin offense.

Wide receivers are quietly trending here, with three wins in the last five years. Tetairoa McMillan took home the honor last year for the Panthers, leading all rookies with 1,014 yards and 7 TDs after opening the season as a 14/1 longshot.

Carnell Tate has all the talent, but his Titans future is tied directly to 2025 top pick Cam Ward and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.

Despite signing Wan’Dale Robinson and returning Calvin Ridley, Tennessee doesn’t have an entrenched alpha, so the fourth overall pick, Tate, is in play to become Ward’s favorite option if the duo can build some early chemistry.

The Ohio State standout has elite hands and a dynamic ability to make plays in coverage. Tate didn’t drop a pass last season and caught 12 of 14 contested targets. He totaled 1,600+ yards and 13 TDs on 103 catches over 26 games the last two seasons and ranked among college football’s big-play leaders, despite living in the shadows of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.

Tate can break through the ceiling, but this one comes down to the environment.

Value Bet For 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | +750

Why this wins: Early-season lead-back workload in a run-heavy offense.

It’s hard to be tempted to dive too far down DraftKings’ odds board for OROY. As it is, we went from breaking down a trio of top-five picks to looking at the final first-round selection.

Jadarian Price was Jeremiyah Love’s backup at Notre Dame and now he’ll share a backfield with Zach Charbonnet for the defending champs.

With Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker gone and Charbonnet recovering from a torn ACL, there’s a real chance Price opens the season as the lead back in a run-heavy scheme.

That matters. And he’s not just a placeholder.

Price averaged 700+ rushing yards and scored 20 touchdowns in his final two seasons for the Fighting Irish, averaging 6.0 yards per carry in college while rarely working as a pass catcher.

If Charbonnet is sidelined into midseason, Price only has to hold off Emanuel Wilson and George Holani for the starting job. The touches will absolutely be there. The question after Charbonnet returns is whether the rookie will get enough looks to keep pace with the competition.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Published May 4, 2026, 9:52 ETUpdated May 4, 2026, 9:52 ET