Fantasy Football ADP Check: Chase Brown And More Targets At Cost

The NFL Draft is a few short days away, which means things are going to change quite a bit in the fantasy landscape.

Fantasy football ADP is always shifting, but it’ll be especially drastic this time next week. So before the rookies all find their next homes, let’s take a look at my five favorite players to click in Underdog drafts right now.

Five Targets At Their Current Fantasy Football ADPs

Chase Brown | RB | CIN

Underdog ADP: 22nd overall, RB13

Despite the slow start to last season, Brown finished as fantasy’s RB7 on a points per game basis (16.3). Turns out having Joe Burrow healthy at quarterback has a positive impact on your offense.

Who knew?

During Weeks 3-12, the Bengals' offense looked like a shell of its former self without its star quarterback. And although things did improve once Joe Flacco saved our fantasy rosters, it still wasn’t the same. With Burrow sidelined during that stretch, Brown averaged just 13.5 PPR points per game, ranking as fantasy’s RB20. He still averaged 5.7 targets per game, but only found the end zone twice during that span. As I highlighted in my touchdown regression candidates column, scoring opportunities were a lot harder to come by with Burrow sidelined.

Weeks 3-12 (without Burrow):

36% drives with a score (20th)
21% drives with a TD (23rd)
15% rushing TD rate (32nd)
59.4 plays per game (21st)

Again, Flacco’s presence did give this offense a much-needed boost, as the Bengals climbed to 11th in percentage of drives with a TD (11%) and sixth in percentage of drives with a score (46%) from Weeks 6-12. And Brown improved with Flacco, averaging three more fantasy points per contest.

But his final form was about to be reached.

Burrow returned in Week 13, and once he did, those who selected Brown in the second round of summer drafts finally received the reward they were waiting for. During that stretch, Brown averaged 22.3 PPR PPG, trailing only Bijan Robinson. The Bengals' offense was back.

Weeks 13-18 (with Burrow):

47% of drives with a score (6th)
34% of drives with a TD (6th)
29% rushing TD rate (24th)
68.0 plays per game (1st)

Fast forward to 2026, and Brown is currently coming off draft boards as the RB13, behind players like Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley and Jeremiyah Love. I’ll comfortably take Brown over all four running backs.

DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI

Underdog ADP: 38.1, WR18

If you want Smith on your best ball rosters, you may be running out of time.

We all know an A.J. Brown trade feels inevitable and once it happens, Smith’s price is going to rise, although we should really have been drafting him under the assumption that Brown wouldn’t be in Philadelphia anyway.

Smith has always been a stellar wideout, but truly elite volume has limited his fantasy ceiling. Since the Eagles added Brown in 2022, Smith has posted TPRR rates of 22%, 19%, 20% and 22%. We did see a 136-target season from Smith back in 2023, leading to 95 catches, 1,196 yards, 7 touchdowns and a WR9 fantasy finish. 130-plus targets should be well within reach for Smith if he’s the WR1 in Philadelphia. In five games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Smith’s averages are, as you’d expect, strong:

9.0 targets
6.2 receptions
87.8 receiving yards
16.2 PPR PPG
25.5% TPRR

Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN

Underdog ADP: 47.7, WR24

At first, I didn’t exactly know how to feel about Waddle in Denver. But after giving it a lot more thought, I have come to a decision.

I’m all in.

We’ve only truly seen Waddle in an alpha role twice throughout his career—as a rookie in 2021 and to end last season with Tyreek Hill sidelined. From Week 5 on last year, Waddle posted 25% target share and TPRR. The fantasy production was underwhelming (WR27), but that was in a slow-paced, run-heavy, low-scoring Miami offense. Last year, the Dolphins ranked 32nd in plays per minute (1.9), 31st in plays per game (55.6) and 24th in dropback rate over expected (-3%).

Waddle now joins a Denver offense that ranked third in dropback rate over expected (4%), and he should see far more designed targets in Sean Payton/Davis Webb’s offense. During his time in Miami, Waddle was mostly used on post routes, while the motion/screen/designed looks went to Hill. Over the past two seasons, Waddle has seen a total of 10 screen targets. Expect that to change immediately, as Waddle is now playing in a Broncos offense that averaged 4.5 screen attempts per game, good for the third-most in football.

Jaxson Dart | QB | NYG

Underdog ADP: 85.9, QB11

The Giants finally gave Dart the keys to the offense in Week 4, and once he took over, he flashed some serious fantasy upside. His 13% designed rush share was second among all signal callers, and during that span, Dart averaged 20.5 points per game (8th). And over the course of the season, Dart averaged the third-most fantasy points per dropback (0.66), proving how valuable rushing is for both floor and ceiling.

And he did all of this without top wideout, Malik Nabers.

This offseason, the Giants have done everything to put the right pieces around him. They hired an experienced head coach in John Harbaugh, while adding Isaiah Likely and Darnell Mooney to provide more weapons. And once the NFL Draft is over, they’ll likely have brought in at least one more high-upside pass catcher. Currently coming off draft boards as QB11, Dart’s rushing prowess gives him top-five upside.

Just please, please start going out of bounds.

Mark Andrews | TE | BAL

Underdog ADP: 144.8, TE17

Look, I get it. I’ve talked about how much I love Andrews to bounce back ad nauseam. But the current value makes him such an easy player to draft, and arguably my overall favorite.

Over the last few seasons, Andrews has been more of a part-time player, largely due to the emergence of Isaiah Likely. But in games where Likely has been sidelined, we’ve seen Andrews return to a much more fantasy-friendly role in the Baltimore offense. In four games without Likely since 2024, Andrews has run 79.2% of the routes, while sporting a 15% target share and 15.2% TPRR. And perhaps more importantly, Andrews accounted for 27% of the Ravens’ end zone targets with Likely sidelined for the first three weeks of last season.

Meanwhile, here are Andrews’ rates with Likely active since 2024:

64% of routes
60% of snaps
8.6 PPR PPG

With Likely joining John Harbaugh in New York (as well as Charlie Kolar heading to Los Angeles), Baltimore’s tight end room is suddenly depleted, giving Andrews the chance to flirt with more of an every-down role. The combination of a healthy Lamar Jackson and an uptick in routes makes Andrews an ideal bounce-back candidate.

Players Mentioned in this Article

ChaseBrown
RBCIN
PPG
14.2
Proj
222.7
DeVontaSmith
WRPHI
PPG
9.7
Proj
183.7
JaylenWaddle
WRDEN
PPG
10.0
Proj
187.8
JaxsonDart
QBNYG
PPG
17.0
Proj
295.8