Fantasy Football Strategy Mailbag: Target Jordan Love, Kyler Murray And More

It's Fourth of July Week—happy birthday, America—and while some are taking it easy during this lull in the NFL calendar, we're still grinding away because we know that many are ramping up their fantasy football research. So we took your questions from SiriusXM, and here we go.

Weekly Fantasy Football Mailbag

What are some offenses you're drafting late?

My first one is the Vikings. Training camp will give us a clearer picture on if Kyler Murray will be the QB1 for this squad come September, but truly how could they go back to what J.J. McCarthy gave them? The Vikings went from 347 yards (12th) and 2.6 TDs (9th) per game to 275 (28th) and 1.9 (26th). I still believe that Kevin O'Connell is a quarterback whisperer, McCarthy was just the exception.

Murray is one of my favorite late-round quarterbacks to target, especially because of his dual-threat ability. He can still be dangerous on the ground, especially considering that last season he averaged his most rushing yards per game (34.6) since his ACL injury. And he has a good group of weapons around him. Justin Jefferson is the receiver you'll have to pay up for, but considering he's coming off of career lows in yardage (1,048), touchdowns (2) and catch rate (60%), he's going to be hungry this season. While I'm not entirely sold on this backfield, the prices for Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are hard to ignore, especially considering that we've seen mobile quarterbacks like Murray boost their offense's running back rush yards before contact frequently over the seasons.

I'm also really into drafting these Packers players. I've been on record saying I love drafting Jordan Love (no pun intended). He was injured last season and didn't attempt that many passes— all things I believe will change in 2026. We have no updates on Josh Jacobs' legal situation, but even before that it felt like the offense needed a shift anyway. The targets will be more condensed with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden, and the return of Tucker Kraft should help elevate Love.

Any players you've changed your tune on these last few weeks?

This one might be a reach, but I wanted to highlight Tyler Warren simply because of the range he's going in. In the 6th round there are five high-end quarterbacks being drafted and Warren sits firmly in the middle of that round. So not only could you be passing on an elite QB, but Warren's production is going to be reliant on a healthy Daniel Jones … that in and of itself seems risky.

Jones was really damn good to start the season—through the first seven games he led the league in dropback success rate (56.1%) and EPA per dropback (0.30), and had a 71.0% completion percentage. Then the Achilles injury happened in Week 14. In 12 games when Jones was healthy we saw Warren score 5 touchdowns and averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. In five games without Jones, Warren fell to 6.3 points per game and didn't score.

The other part, though, is that it's freaking Warren, who is an absolute beast. No matter if Jones goes down again or stays healthy, Warren will be consistently targeted and will benefit from Michael Pittman Jr. not being around anymore. I've started coming around to taking him more, but he's one of the final tight ends I will take before just simply punting on the position.

What's some advice you'd give to a first-time Guillotine Leagues™️ player?

First of all, have fun because it is such a fun format! One piece of advice is to avoid the "hopeful upside plays," like rookies. Yeah, you might be hopeful that a certain player is going to be back to 100% by the time Week 4 rolls around, but you know who that doesn't help? You when you're chopped after a player gets you a zero on the score sheet.

While regular fantasy leagues allow you to stash players on IR or the bench, in Guillotine Leagues™️ you are fully exposed every single week. There's no bench, which means any player you draft at the beginning will have to get you through the first week and hopefully beyond. It can work if you draft an injured player, but you want to avoid stacking risky guys together.

The same concept applies to rookies. If you're ever drafting with me on Underdog you know that I am a sucker for those later-round rookies because the upside is so enticing, but here it's almost something to try and avoid. Sure, rookies can hit their stride early, but many times it takes them a few weeks to really find their footing and time is not on your side in this format. Taking a calculated risk on someone like Jordyn Tyson or even Jadarian Price, rookies who look like they will have a big workload is one thing. But hoping that Omar Cooper or Eli Stowers even get playing time is another. Avoid zeros at all costs, because it could be the matter of one or two points that can get you chopped. Just finding players with strong or certain workloads to get you through the first few weeks can be enough.

In all, target players with a weekly high floor. If you're in an 18-team Guillotine League, your goal for Week 1 is to finish 17th or better. In Week 2? You've got it, finish 16th or better. Finishing first in any week gains you nothing but a pat on the back (more than likely from yourself because your leaguemates will not care, lol).

If you want to see the five players I've downgraded in Guillotine Leagues, you can find it here.