Fantasy Football Takeaways From Week 3: Jeremiyah Love Leads The Utilization Report

5. George Kittle Played a Full-Time Role: UPGRADES to TE3

The 49ers took their time ramping Kittle up over the first two weeks coming off a late-season Achilles injury from 2025. In Week 3, they removed the restrictor plate and let Kittle peg the speedometer.

The veteran TE notched a season-high 86% route share, and he dominated the 49ers' passing attack with a 28% target share, notching 7 looks. Kittle was the TE2 on the week with 26.2 fantasy points and a sky-high Utilization Score of 93.

With the 49ers receiving corps incredibly banged up, Kittle should be the No. 1 passing-game option over the short term.

• Mike Evans: Ribs/Oblique → TBD timeline to return (week-to-week)
• Demarcus Robinson: High Ankle → Week 7 return
• Christian Kirk: Calf → Week 5 return
• De'Zhaun Stribling: Ankle surgery → Out indefinitely

And the upside of the San Francisco offense will keep Kittle in the high-end TE1 conversation even once his teammates return.

Kittle was the TE4 last year with 13.6 PPG and the TE1 in 2024 with 15.8 PPG. Those are realistic outcomes for 2026, and if healthy, the ceiling is even higher. He has an elite YPRR of 3.11 with a 29% TPRR. Those are high-end TE1 numbers.

Kittle UPGRADES to my TE3 overall for the rest of the season. He only trails Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.

6. Jets and Saints RB Injuries: Week 4 Fantasy Impact

Is Braelon Allen The Clear-Cut RB1 in New York If Breece Hall Is Out?

Hall left the game with a thigh injury and did not return in Week 3. We are awaiting more information from an MRI, but his short-term availability is highly in doubt.

Through three games, Allen has been the only other RB to see playing time for the Jets, despite Isaiah Davis being active every contest. After Hall departed from the game against the Lions, Allen bogarted the backfield to himself.

Over the final two drives (16 snaps), Allen handled 100% of the snaps and attempts, while tallying a 62% route share. Over that span, the team played Allen on all eight of their two-minute offense plays.

We could see more of a puff-puff-give rotation with Davis with a full week to prepare. Davis is a good receiving back, and could make sense as a complementary option in that capacity. But Allen's role in the two-minute offense last week is bullish.

The next two games on the schedule are against the Bears and Browns, both of which have been solid against the run. But then the Jets get the Patriots and Miami, per our fantasy football strength of schedule tool, where you can now see fantasy boost allowed:

I expect Allen to see a 60-65% snap share, operating as the primary early-down back in games without Hall. He is probably in line to deliver a 50% route participation rate as well. Historically, that sort of profile is an RB2 in fantasy.

I prefer Allen over Gordon for the short-term, but Allen doesn't have a chance to take over a season-long role. Hall is the RB1 as soon as healthy.

Allen is available in 81% of Yahoo Leagues and UPGRADES to RB2 status while Hall is out. If Hall heads to IR, I would consider 15-20% of FAAB. If Hall avoids IR, he is a 7.5-12.5% type option if you need an RB2.

Davis is available in 99% of Yahoo Leagues and UPGRADES to RB4 territory while Hall is out. He is a min-bid option who is talented enough to surpass Allen if he struggles.

How Will The Saints Backfield Look if Travis Etienne Jr. is Out?

Etienne aggravated an existing hamstring injury that knocked him out of Week 3 action. His status for Week 4 is in serious jeopardy, and he could miss longer, but we are awaiting more info.

After Etienne exited, the Saints used a three-headed backfield with Alvin Kamara leading the way over a five-series sample.

• Kamara: 48% snaps, 60% attempts, 42% routes, 0% targets
• Kendre Miller: 31% snaps, 40% attempts, 26% routes, 12% targets
• CJ Donaldson: 21% snaps, 0% attempts, 11% routes, 0% targets

None of these backs have been efficient this season.

• Kamara: 2.8 YPC, 5.6% explosive rush rate, 33% TPRR, 0.57 YPRR
• Miller: 3.4 YPC, 0% explosive rush rate, 23% TPRR, 0.38 YPRR
• Donaldson: 2.8 YPC, 0% explosive rush rate, 6% TPRR, -0.13 YPRR

Based on the information available to us, Kamara is the favorite to lead the team in routes and targets while splitting the early-down work with Miller. Miller could see more of the rushing workload in a game where the Saints aren't trailing, like Week 3.

The Saints have averaged 1.18 yards per attempt before contact (12th) on RB attempts. So, while the run game has been lackluster, there is theoretical room for improvement.

But the biggest plus for the backfield is volume. The Saints averaged 70.7 regulation plays per game—ranking first in the NFL. Their 11.08 seconds remaining on the play clock at the snap in neutral situations ranks third, along with their 2.3 plays per minute.

That bodes well for Kamara, who is most likely to benefit on a pass-leaning offense with a 4% dropback rate over expected (DBOE). Right now, the best path to value is in the passing game for Saints RBs.

Kamara is available in 57% of Yahoo leagues and UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 territory in games without Etienne. FAAB: 5-15% in deeper leagues. But that will move up if Etienne goes to IR.

Miller is available in 99% of Yahoo leagues and UPGRADES to mid-range RB4 status in contests where Etienne is out. FAAB: 2.5-7.5% in deep-bench formats.

7. Josh Downs is Due For a Blowup Game

Downs has an 88% route participation rate through three games, dwarfing his 67% and 75% marks in 2025 and 2024. And his elite target-earning ability has not taken a hit with more playing time. 

The 2023 Round 3 draft pick is tied with Tyler Warren for the team lead in target share at 24%, averaging 10.9 PPG. 

In Week 3, with Alec Pierce (heel) on IR, the Colts' passing attack consolidated around Downs, Warren, and Keenan Allen. Downs notched a 29% target share. He has an 81 Utilization Score in each of the last two outings, with 14.2 and 12.7 fantasy points.

Historically, WRs with a Utilization Score in his range have averaged 16.4 PPG. Half of them posted WR1 seasons, with WR2 campaigns as the floor.

Downs is operating heavily from the slot (60%) with elite marks in play-action targets (25%) and motion at the snap (24%). With a steady diet of in-breaking routes and an 8.1 average route depth, the Year 3 WR is in play for targets often.

• Slant Routes: 16%
• Crossing Routes: 12%
• In Routes: 12%
• Post Routes: 7%
• Screen Routes: 5%

Shane Steichen is dialing up the cheat codes for his young WR, and it is only a matter of time before we get an eruption game. And we could get multiple over the next three weeks, thanks to a fantastic schedule where he has two choice fantasy boost matchups:

Downs UPGRADES to low-end WR2 territory while Pierce is out and is a strong WR3 upon his return.

8. Utilization Score Underperformers

The Utilization Score is made up of the fantasy data points that have historically correlated the most strongly with future fantasy success. It is a similar but different concept compared to expected fantasy points. How it differs:

• Accounts for snaps and routes in addition to attempts and targets.
• Accounts for catchable targets and catchable air yards.
• The underlying role accounts for ~75% of a player's Utilization Score.
• Uses fantasy points per game (PPG) as a proxy for talent (i.e., has the player done something with their opportunities). Fantasy PPG is worth ~25% of a player's Utilization Score.

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

Brown started hot with 18.8 fantasy points in Week 1, but has cooled with 11.2 and 8.9 over the last two games. But his underlying Utilization hasn't changed.

He is still receiving high-end RB1-caliber snap shares (71%) and rush shares (78%). Those marks rank seventh and fourth, respectively. And he ranks 17th in target share at 11%.

Even with raw opportunity data, Brown ranks strongly.

• Attempts per game: 16.3 (13th)
• Routes per game: 19.7 (7th)
• Targets per game: 3.7 (15th)

The Bengals rank ninth in average play clock remaining at the snap with 9.89 seconds. But they rank 20th in plays per game at 59.3. This is still a high-octane offense, but they are getting their bearings with some new scheme twists. But I expect them to rebound. In the last two healthy seasons with Joe Burrow, they averaged 63.5 (8th in 2024) and 65.3 (9th in 2022).

The team is also hurting at the WR position with Andrei Iosivas and Colbie Young out. Brown had a 14% target share in games with Burrow in 2025. That provides us with another out for improvement.

Even if Brown's role remains unchanged along with the offensive plays per game, his 79 Utilization Score compares with RBs that have averaged 15.4 PPG. Of that cohort, 41% were RB1s. 

Over the next four games, Brown has two strong matchups:

Brown is HOLDING STEADY as a low-end RB1 with elite playing time in a good offense. He is a BUY-LOW candidate worth asking your leaguemates about.

Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Panthers

McMillan is averaging 9.8 PPG, which could have your local manager shook. 

But Bryce Young registered his third strong passing-yardage output in Week 3 and has now thrown for 361, 287, and 291 yards. The Panthers rank second in the NFL in DBOE at 10% under new play caller, Brad Idzik.

Unless we think McMillan's rookie scouting profile was wrong and his rookie-season underlying data was a mirage, this is a player we want to buy. Personally, I want to focus on the positives. In two of three games, McMillan has reached a 25% target share—despite extra attention from defenses.

Idzik is playing McMillan more from the slot at 25%, and 33% of his targets have come on play action—an elite mark. With an average route depth of 9.4 yards and a strong diet of routes over the middle of the field, McMillan is due for a bounceback game.

• Crossing Routes: 13%
• Slant Routes: 9%
• In Routes: 7%
• Post Routes: 7%

The Panthers have two plus matchups and one hard one over their next four contests.

McMillan is HOLDING STEADY as a strong WR2 who offers mid-range WR1 upside, with Young ranking No. 1 in passing YPG at 313.

9. Utilization Score Overperformers

Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Jaguars

Tuten notched a rushing TD in Week 3 after Trevor Lawrence went down, allowing his young teammate to punch it in. That led to 17 points for Tuten in the fantasy box score.

But his Utilization remained unchanged. Ultimately, his volume was boosted by a game script in which the Jaguars dropped back to pass only 50% of plays thanks to a massive lead over the hapless Patriots.

There is a world where Tuten breaks fantasy football in a larger role. But for now, the team seems intent on splitting the backfield four ways:

• Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Short-yardage split (61% of SDD snaps and 50% of attempts inside the five-yard line)
• Lequint Allen: Long-down-and-distance (LDD) snaps (48%) plus the two-minute offense with 100% of the snaps.
• Ameer Abdullah: Change-of-pace RB getting 13% of designed attempts.

Tuten has been extremely efficient, ranking highly among RBs with at least 30 totes this season.

• Average yards after contact: 4.28 (2nd)
• 10-plus yard attempts: 13.9% (5th)
• Missed tackles forced rate: 34.9% (2nd)

I was bullish on Tuten this preseason, fading his small-sample rushing efficiency last year and leaning into his collegiate profile instead. That part is working out, but we need more opportunities (16 per game). It would be nice to get more high-leverage work in scoring position and in the two-minute offense.

Through three games, Tuten's role has been steady. That has translated to a 58 Utilization Score. Historically, his comparisons have averaged 10.9 PPG, with 0% securing an RB1 season. Only 22% finished as RB2s.

When you add it all up, Tuten profiles as an RB3 until he breaks free from the Jaguars committee approach. Don't get me wrong, I am still into Tuten. But if one of my league mates believes he is an ascending player worth a high-end RB2 price tag, I am willing to sell.

Jake Ferguson | TE | Cowboys

Jake Ferguson has scored 20.3 and 9.3 points over the last two games thanks to three TD receptions. He is in an incredible offense, so I am not saying the TDs will completely dry up. But his 11% target share and 69% route share are reasons for concern.

Historically, TEs with similar Utilization Scores have averaged 10.1 PPG with significant weekly volatility.

Ferguson ranks as the TE14 in PPG, but there are plenty of other options to consider for the rest of the way. He is a mid-range TE2.

10. Waiver Wire Roundup

QB Waiver Wire Options For Week 4 Fantasy Football

• Sam Darnold | Seahawks: Darnold is the most-added QB based on early waiver wire data after scoring 27.8 points in Week 3 against the Commanders. Darnold has proven capable of these outbursts over the last two years, but the Seahawks are still a run-balanced offense (-3% DBOE) that wants to lean on their defense. That will make Darnold a game-script-dependent QB. Darnold has a tough schedule over the next month. 

But the 49ers, Chiefs, and Bears could push the Seahawks to pass more. Darnold is available in 63% of Yahoo leagues. He is a mid-range QB2.

• Streamers for Week 4: Daniel Jones (WAS), Kirk Cousins (IND), CJ Stroud (DAL - if Nico Collins is back), Marcus Mariota (IND)
   
• Longview Players Your Leaguemates Could Cut: Kyler Murray

RB Waiver Wire Options For Week 4 Fantasy Football

• Ollie Gordon II | Dolphins: 97% available (See No. 4 above).
   
• Braelon Allen | Jets: 81% available (See No. 6 above).
   
• Jaylen Wright | Dolphins: 99% available (See No. 4 above).
   
• Keaton Mitchell | Chargers: Mitchell scored 13.7 points in Week 3 against Buffalo. It was his largest role of the season, handling 36% of snaps, 31% of attempts, and collecting a 10% target share on a 37% route share. The explosive playmaker could carve out some standalone value with Omarion Hampton struggling early. Mitchell is available in 68% of Yahoo leagues and is an RB4 with RB2 contingent upside.
   
• Tier 1 Handcuffs: Emmett Johnson (64%), Mike Washington Jr. (56%)
   
• Tier 2 Handcuffs: Brian Robinson Jr. (78%), Samaje Perine (96%), Seth McGowan (98%)
   
• SICKO STASHES: Tyler Goodson (Was the RB2 behind Javonte Williams in W3; Emari Demercado was a healthy scratch)
   
• Longview Players Your Leaguemates Could Cut: Kaelon Black, Chris Rodriguez Jr.

WR Waiver Wire Options For Week 4 Fantasy Football

• Keenan Allen | Colts: With Pierce on IR, Allen is part of a consolidated attack with Downs and Tyler Warren. He notched a 76% route share and 26% target share in Week 3 against Houston, scoring 18.3 fantasy points. He is a mid-range WR4 who is available in 79% of Yahoo leagues.
   
• Malik Washington | Dolphins: Washington has an 89% route share and 29% target share this season. He is also working downfield more than previous seasons with a 10.8 average depth of target (6.5 average route depth), which opens the door to more big plays. He operates from the slot on 42% of snaps with a 14% motion-at-the-snap rate. The Dolphins are a low-volume passing attack, but Washington could provide bye-week coverage in PPR formats. He is a borderline WR4 with WR3 potential and is available in 80% of leagues.
   
• Chris Bell | Dolphins: With Caleb Douglas out, Bell stepped into the starting role, playing 73% of the passing plays. He had a 16% target share and scored 10.7 points. Bell is a YAC monster and a great fit attacking in-breaking routes off play action in the Dolphins' scheme. I think he is the best WR on the team, but it is hard to know what his role will look like in the short term when Douglas returns. Bell is a WR5-6 option with WR2 upside should he end up in a full-time role. He is available in 96% of leagues and is a strong long-view option in deep leagues. 
   
• SICKO STASHES: Christian Kirk, Tre Harris
   
• Longview Players Your Leaguemates Could Cut: KC Concepcion

TE Waiver Wire Options For Week 4 Fantasy Football

• Kenyon Sadiq | Jets: 82% available (See No. 2 above).
   
• Darren Waller | Panthers: Waller has led the Panthers TE room with 56% and 57% route shares in the last two games. He has upped his targets each week (6%, 10%, 20%). But last week, he benefited from Jalen Coker leaving the game early and Xavier Legette not playing. He is a strong red-zone weapon with upside should his role grow. Waller is a mid-range TE2 and is available in 86% of leagues.

Team Trends To Monitor In Fantasy Football

We now have three weeks of data for most teams, making it a good time to examine team-level trends that affect fantasy production. You can find the data across all 32 NFL teams in the Team Styles tab of the Utilization Report tools.

Redzone Drive Rate vs. Touchdowns Drive Rate: Percentage of drives that reach the red zone versus how often the team is scoring a touchdown per drive. Large deltas indicate room for positive or negative regression.

• Texans: 17.6% (35.3% vs 17.6%)
• Cardinals: 16.1% (35.5% vs 19.4%)
• Chiefs: 15.6% (46.9% vs 31.3%)

Dropback Over Expected (DBOE): How often teams pass the ball compared to their peers when considering the score differential. This is year-to-date data until Week 5, when we flip to the last five.

• Packers: 11%
• Panthers: 10%
• Buccaneers: 6%
• Steelers: 6%
• Bengals: 6%
• Cowboys: 5%
  ___
• Ravens: -7%
• Giants: -8%
• Vikings: -8%
• Falcons: -14%

Neutral Playclock: Teams that are leaving more or less time on the play clock when the score is within three points (neutral situations). The NFL average is 8.3 seconds. This is year-to-date data until Week 5, when we flip to the last five.

• Falcons: 11.39
• Raiders: 11.20
• Saints: 11.08
• Cowboys: 10.95
• Browns: 10.54
• Chiefs: 10.46
  ___
• Titans: 5.79
• Giants: 5.76
• Commanders: 5.46
• Dolphins: 3.95

Play action pass rate: Teams that are utilizing play action the most per dropback, which adds value to WRs and TEs on a per-route basis in fantasy. This is year-to-date data until Week 5, when we flip to the last five.:

• Bills: 42%
• Lions: 36%
• Seahawks: 36%
• Colts: 35%
• Ravens: 33%
• Chiefs: 33%
  ___
• Cardinals: 20%
• Bengals: 19%
• Saints: 19%
• Packers: 19%
• Eagles: 14% (2 games)

Personnel: When teams deploy more heavy personnel with extra TEs and RBs on the field, there is less target competition for the actual pass-catchers who remain on the field. For example: WRs saw a 29% boost in PPR points per route with two WRs on the field vs. three WRs over the last three seasons. This is year-to-date data until Week 5, when we flip to the last five. Game scripts can impact this data over small samples.

21 Personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) – large boost

• 49ers: 43%
• Chargers: 31%
• Seahawks: 24%
• Raiders: 23%

22 Personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) – large boost

• Giants: 24% (21 + 22 = 38%)
• Raiders: 18% (21 + 22 = 41%)
• Vikings: 11% (21 + 22 = 29%)

11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) – negative boost

• Eagles: 76% (2 games)
• Titans: 72%
• Saints: 70%

12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) – small boost

• Bengals: 38%
• Bears: 35% (2 games)
• Jaguars: 31%
• Ravens: 30%
• Falcons: 30%

13 Personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) – large boost

• Rams: 42%
• Bills: 32% (12 + 13 = 52%)
• Ravens: 18%
• Bears: 18% (2 games)

Offensive Lines: Pressure rates are huge for QBs. Most signal callers who are constantly harassed will struggle to find consistent fantasy value. QBs partially own pressures, so it isn't all an offensive line issue. The NFL average pressure rate is 36% over the last three seasons.

Yards before contact matters for RBs. Backs who get better blocking have a better chance to thrive in fantasy. The NFL average for yards before contact is 2.54 over the last three years.

Pressure Rate Allowed:

• 49ers: 24%
• Falcons: 24%
• Cardinals: 26%
• Bengals: 29%
• Titans: 29%
  ___
• Browns: 44%
• Chargers: 44%
• Bears: 44% (2 games)
• Ravens: 44%
• Packers: 45%
• Panthers: 48%

Average Yards Before Contact Rushing

• Bills: 2.83
• 49ers: 2.56
• Bears: 2.49 (2 games)
• Rams: 2.46
• Panthers: 2.03
  ___
• Commanders: 0.81
• Jets: 0.81
• Raiders: 0.72
• Browns: 0.60
• Jaguars: 0.55