Upgrades For Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Travis Kelce, George Kittle Back Among Elite

Upgrades For Week 4 Tight End Rankings: Travis Kelce, George Kittle Back Among Elite

Matthew Freedman dropped his favorite tight end plays for fantasy football in Week 4.

Published

Let's get into the Week 4 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

  • Favorable betting factors and situational spots
  • Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
  • Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

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Week 4 Tight End Rankings

RankPlayer
1Brock Bowers
2Trey McBride
3Dalton Kincaid
4George Kittle
5Travis Kelce
6Sam LaPorta
7Tyler Warren
8Juwan Johnson
9Tucker Kraft
10Harold Fannin
11Kenyon Sadiq
12Isaiah Likely
13Colston Loveland
14Dalton Schultz
15Mark Andrews

Week 4 Matchup Upgrades: Darren Waller vs. Lions & T.J. Hockenson vs. Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TE.

  • Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+10.1)
  • Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (60.0%)

Bang a gong.

Darren Waller (Panthers) vs. Lions: Waller has been a fringe functional contributor to open the year (9.4 fantasy points per game, 10-112-2 receiving, 13 targets), but his overall usage has been modest (52% route rate, 13% target share, 10% air yard share, 17% end zone target share, 59 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). This week, though, he could see more action, as the Panthers might be without WRs Jalen Coker (quadriceps) and Xavier Legette (knee). As for the matchup, the Lions are missing SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR). If you're desperate, I'm fine with starting Waller in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) vs. Dolphins: Hockenson hasn't done much this season (6.0 fantasy points per game, 9-76-1 receiving, 13 targets, 59 Utilization Score), but Week 4 could offer him new opportunities, given that No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) is uncertain to play and No. 2 TE Josh Oliver (biceps) is out. Plus, I like his setup: The Vikings are indoors in Minnesota, where they had the No. 5 home-field advantage last year (+9.51, per NFElo), and they have a fully maximized home edge against the Dolphins, who are out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Finally, QB Kyler Murray has been strong against non-divisional opponents throughout his career (36-22 ATS, 21.0% ROI, per Action Network). 

Week 4 Scoring Upgrades: Travis Kelce at Raiders & Mike Gesicki vs. Jaguars

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."

This week, the Bengals are No. 2 in implied team total (27.0 points); the Chiefs, No. 5 (26.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Raiders: The clock has turned back to 2022. The Chiefs are 3-0, they've scored 24+ points in every game, and Kelce has been one of the league's best TEs (14.0 fantasy points per game, 14-231-2 receiving, 18 targets, 86 Utilization Score). Although the Chiefs are on the road for their second straight game, at least they're indoors, and they've drastically reduced home-field advantage for the Raiders because they are in the same division and play on a similar grass surface. The Raiders are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (18.2) and could be without FS Treydan Stukes (concussion).

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) vs. Jaguars: Gesicki's usage has been ordinary (53% route rate, 10% target share, 15% air yard share, 40% end zone target share, 57 Utilization Score), but he has run reasonably hot with his production (13.8 fantasy points per game, 8-115-2 receiving, 10 targets), and that hot streak could continue here, as the Jags are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (55.9). Plus, the Bengals have a boosted home-field advantage in this spot because the Jags are on turf (vs. grass) and outside division … and QB Joe Burrow has traditionally slayed non-divisional opponents (40-16-1 ATS, 36.2% ROI). 

Week 4 Offensive Injury Upgrades: George Kittle vs. Broncos & Dalton Schultz vs. Cowboys

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

George Kittle (49ers) vs. Broncos: I highlighted Kittle as a TE favorite last week, and he went off (23.2 fantasy points, 6-82-2 receiving, 7 targets), so … I'm doing it again. In his two games since Week 2 without No. 2 TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR), Kittle has been especially lethal (10-162-3 receiving, 11 targets, 91 Utilization Score). Despite playing their third consecutive home game, the 49ers have been literally around the world and back compared to the Broncos (15,749 miles vs. 2,053), so the setup isn't perfect, but No. 1 WR Mike Evans (ribs) is uncertain, and WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR) are out. I expect Kittle to continue to krush.

Dalton Schultz (Texans) vs. Cowboys: This is the fourth straight week that Schultz has been one of my TE favorites. To borrow from The Hangover: "You never walk away from the table when you're on a heater." That didn't go well last week (4.5 fantasy points, 3-30-0 receiving, 3 targets), but we're focusing on the process, and it's hard to be too negative about Schultz given the extent to which he has vastly exceeded expectations (10.0 fantasy points per game, 19-205-0 receiving, 25 targets, 80 Utilization Score). The setup is good: The Texans are playing their third home game in four weeks, and the Cowboys have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). The matchup is even better: The Cowboys are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+6.0), and LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring), SS Jalen Thompson (hamstring), FS Malik Hooker (forearm), and No. 3 S P.J. Locke (foot, IR) could all be out. Most importantly, the Texans could once again be without No. 1 WR Nico Collins (hamstring).

Week 4 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Tyler Warren vs. Commanders & Oronde Gadsden at Seahawks

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Tyler Warren (Colts) vs. Commanders (in London): Warren's year-to-date production is somewhat uninspiring (10.1 fantasy points per game, 18-89-2 receiving, 22 targets with 2-5-0 rushing), but what's encouraging is that last week without No. 1 WR Alec Pierce (heel, IR), he had strong usage (93% route rate, 29% target share). Maybe he can carry that forward against the Commanders, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+9.4) and seem likely to be without LBs Frankie Luvu (groin) and Leo Chenal (neck), and S/CB Nick Cross (illness).

Oronde Gadsden (Chargers) at Seahawks: The 0-3 Chargers have yet to score even 20 points in a game. They're on the road for a second straight week. And they're facing the Seahawks, who have versatile S/CB Nick Emmanwori (No. 2 in 2025 DROY voting). Not great for Gadsden, who did literally nothing last week (0-0-0 receiving, 3 targets). Still, TEs Charlie Kolar (forearm) and David Njoku (knee, IR) are out for the Chargers, and last week SS Julian Love (calf) and FS Ty Okada (hamstring) were out for the Seahawks. To quote Guns N' Roses quoting Bob Dylan: "I feel I'm knockin' on heaven's door." 

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

  • Tue AM: Publish
  • Thu AM: Refresh
  • Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
  • Sat PM: Update
  • Sun AM: Revise
  • Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Travis Kelce
    TravisKelce
    TEKCKC
    PPG
    14.0
    Proj
    8.5
  2. George Kittle
    GeorgeKittleQ
    TESFSF
    PPG
    13.8
    Proj
    10.7
  3. Dalton Schultz
    DaltonSchultz
    TEHOUHOU
    PPG
    10.0
    Proj
    7.2
  4. Oronde Gadsden
    OrondeGadsden
    TELACLAC
    PPG
    4.3
    Proj
    8.3

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