WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Rashee Rice Headlines Receivers To Fade

Let's get into the Week 4 WR rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

Week 4 WR Rankings (The Top 36)

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Rank	Player
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2	Ja'Marr Chase
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown
4	CeeDee Lamb
5	Chris Olave
6	Drake London
7	Garrett Wilson
8	Zay Flowers
9	DeVonta Smith
10	Christian Watson
11	Davante Adams
12	Parker Washington
13	Tetairoa McMillan
14	George Pickens
15	Tee Higgins
16	Rashee Rice
17	Matthew Golden
18	Jaylen Waddle
19	Malik Nabers
20	Deebo Samuel
21	Josh Downs
22	DJ Moore
23	Ladd McConkey
24	Jordan Addison
25	Michael Wilson
26	Nico Collins
27	DK Metcalf
28	Terry McLaurin
29	Jameson Williams
30	Luther Burden
31	Devaughn Vele
32	Stefon Diggs
33	Emeka Egbuka
34	Romeo Doubs
35	Keenan Allen
36	Denzel Boston

Matchup Downgrades In My Week 4 WR Rankings: Rashee Rice at Raiders & Tre Tucker vs. Chiefs

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Raiders and Chiefs are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

Raiders: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.127)
Chiefs: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (16.7)

Here be dragons.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Raiders: If I told you before the season started that the Chiefs would open 3-0 while scoring 24+ points in every game, you'd probably assume that Rice would have some gaudy statistics. Wrong (10.5 fantasy points per game, 13-190-1 receiving, 17 targets, 21% air yard share, 0% endzone target share, 60 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). This isn't a terrible spot for the Chiefs: At least they're indoors, and they've drastically reduced home-field advantage for the Raiders because they are in the same division and play on a similar grass surface. But with new RB Kenneth Walker on the team, the offense no longer needs to funnel through Rice via the short passing game.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs. Chiefs: In Week 2, Tucker had one of his peak performances (20.4 fantasy points, 5-119-1 receiving, 7 targets) … but then No. 1 TE Brock Bowers returned in Week 3 from a knee injury, and Tucker resumed his supplementary role. He is indeed the No. 1 WR for the Raiders (78% route rate, 28% air yard share), and on most 3-0 teams, that would mean something … but not the Raiders, who use RBs and TEs to drive their offense. Maybe without WR Jack Bech (forearm), Tucker will see a slight increase in usage, but even so, the Chiefs are still No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (-155.8%). I wouldn't even dream about starting Tucker in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Week 4 Scoring Downgrades In My WR Rankings: Deebo Samuel vs. Broncos & George Pickens at Texans

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the WRs."

Right now, I have the 49ers projected as the No. 1 offense as a general baseline; the Cowboys, No. 3. But this week the 49ers are No. 10 in implied team total (24.5 points), and the Cowboys are No. 18 (22.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Deebo Samuel (49ers) vs. Broncos: Last week, No. 1 WR Mike Evans (ribs) exited early, and WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR) were out. Even so, the 49ers scored 36 points … and yet Samuel had literally no targets. OK, yes, he got some ground work (2-14-0 rushing) … and he did score an 80-yard TD on a cool designed hook-and-ladder play. So, fine, he actually had a decent day (15.4 fantasy points). But still … no targets. The 49ers absolutely do not need to involve Samuel in the offense to win, and he has a tough matchup this week against the Broncos, who are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-6.3) and have a significant travel edge (2,053 miles this season vs. 15,749 miles for the 49ers).

George Pickens (Cowboys) at Texans: The setup is suboptimal for the Cowboys, who are playing their third away game in four weeks and have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). On top of that, Pickens hasn't exhibited the explosiveness this year that he had last year (10.4 yards per target vs. 6.0), which has resulted in modest production (7.7 fantasy points per game, 16-150-0 receiving, 25 targets). Outside the division, QB Dak Prescott has underwhelmed across his career (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI, per Action Network), so this feels like a poor spot for Pickens to get going. And then there's the actual matchup with the Texans, who have struggled this season … and are still No. 2 in defensive dropback SR (39.8%).

Situational Downgrades In My WR Rankings For Week 4: Garrett Wilson at Bears & Christian Watson at Buccaneers

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Bears: The Bears have had the No. 5 home-field advantage over the past five years (+4.72, per NFElo), and it's boosted by the fact that the Jets are out of division/conference and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, they're playing their third road game in four weeks while the Bears are at home for a third consecutive matchup. Wilson could dominate as he did last week (10-107-1 receiving, 13 targets) if RB Breece Hall (thigh), WR Adonai Mitchell (finger), and TE Mason Taylor (thumb) are out. He's certainly talented enough to do so. But his matchup is unforgiving against the Bears, who are No. 4 in defensive dropback SR (41.3%) … and at some point QB Geno Smith will regress.

Christian Watson (Packers) at Buccaneers: I really don't want to be down on Watson. I might be a calloused and curmudgeonly unemotional wet blanket … but I still like to have fun, you know? And Watson has been fun this year (20.3 fantasy points per game, 17-284-4 receiving, 29 targets, 90 Utilization Score). Plus, the Packers have a three-day rest advantage off Thursday Night Football … but that's outweighed by the fact that this is their third game in four weeks on the road, where QB Jordan Love has underperformed expectations (11-18-1 ATS, -26.6% ROI), especially since last year (2-9 ATS, -65.6% ROI). Plus, the Bucs are at home for their third straight game, and they're No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (-57.2%).

Week 4 WR Rankings: Offensive Injury Downgrades: Luther Burden vs. Jets & Denzel Boston vs. Steelers

Here are a couple WRs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Luther Burden (Bears) vs. Jets: This is my fourth straight week to feature Burden as a WR fade, and I gotta say … no real regrets yet. Last week was an improvement to be sure (16.3 fantasy points, 7-61-1 receiving, 11 targets with 1-7-0 rushing), but for the season his production has been paltry (9.3 fantasy points per game, 15-156-1 receiving, 23 targets with 2-9-0 rushing), and he has essentially split No. 1 WR duties with veteran journeyman Kalif Raymond (both have a 67 Utilization Score). I know the Bears scored 27 points last week with No. 3 QB Case Keenum, and that was cool … but it will be a net negative for Burden and the entire offense if No. 1 QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is out once again, and the matchup isn't friendly: The Jets are No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-7.5).

Denzel Boston (Browns) vs. Steelers: The Browns are home for a second straight week and have actually put up 20+ points in back-to-back games under new HC Todd Monken … but he's in a tough spot as a first-year coach on a short week, and home-field advantage for the Browns is greatly diminished because the Steelers are in the division and play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. I must say that I've been impressed so far with the rookie Boston (12.7 fantasy points per game, 9-195-2 receiving, 15 targets, 94% route rate, 50% air yard share, 60% endzone target share) … but the Browns could be without the entire right side of their OL: C Elgton Jenkins (concussion), RG Teven Jenkins (back), and RT Tytus Howard (knee). That's a situation I'd just rather avoid.

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.