QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Drake Maye Leads Freedman's Fades

Week 4 Matchup Downgrades In My QB Rankings: Matthew Stafford at Eagles & Malik Willis at Vikings

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Eagles and Vikings are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Eagles: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-8.3)
• Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback SR (33.6%) and pass DVOA (22.9%)

Here be dragons.

Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Eagles: Before the season started, one of my 2026 NFL best bets was that Stafford would win MVP (+1400). Sadly, the 38-year-old veteran hasn't played up to that level so far (872 yards passing, 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.3 AY/A with 8-11-0 rushing), and the Week 4 setup is tough for the 1-2 Rams: They have traveled almost 20,000 miles this season (a league-worst mark), they're playing their second straight road game, and they're traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff against the Eagles, who have an amplified home-field value against the Rams, who are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). On top of that, Stafford could once again be without No. 1 WR Puka Nacua (hip).

Malik Willis (Dolphins) at Vikings: Willis hasn't been great this season (627 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 6.5 AY/A with 17-101-1 rushing), but he has been serviceable for superflex and 2QB leagues (No. 23 QB with 13.7 fantasy points per game). Still, he has massively disappointed as a rusher: He has the talent to be the league's most prolific running QB, but right now he ranks outside the top five in designed rush share (9%), scramble rate (10%), and goal-line rush share (0%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And his setup is suboptimal: This will be his third road game in four weeks, and the Dolphins grant a maximized home-field advantage to the Vikings because they're out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). And it almost certainly doesn't help him that the Dolphins are dealing with injuries to RBs De'Von Achane (knee) and Jaylen Wright (foot) and WR Caleb Douglas (ankle). I definitely would not even think about Willis in Guillotine Leagues™.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 4 Quarterback Rankings: Dak Prescott at Texans & Drake Maye at Bills

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the QB."

Right now, I have the Cowboys projected as the No. 3 offense as a general baseline; the Patriots, No. 17. But this week the Cowboys are No. 17 in implied team total (22.5 points), and the Pats are No. 25 (21).

Downgrades warranted.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Texans: This is a tough spot for the Cowboys, who are playing their third away game in four weeks and have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). Prescott has played well through the gauntlet (21.4 fantasy points per game, 730 yards passing, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 7.9 AY/A with 10-59-0 rushing), but the edge is against him: Outside division, he has underwhelmed across his career (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI, per Action Network). And then there's the actual matchup with the Texans, who have struggled this season … and are still No. 2 in defensive dropback SR (39.8%).

Drake Maye (Pats) at Bills: This is my fourth straight week to feature Maye as a QB fade. What can I say? 1) I've been right, and 2) it's a helluva bit at this point. It's almost humorous how pathetic Maye has been this season (9.2 fantasy points per game, 585 yards passing, 1 TD, 6 INTs, 4.2 AY/A with 15-82-0 rushing). In terms of travel, the Pats are significantly disadvantaged: This is their third road game in four weeks, and they've accumulated considerably more miles than the Bills (7,347 vs. 2,580 for the season), who are playing their third straight home game. Without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle, IR), RG Michael Onwenu (ankle) and No. 3 G Greg Van Roten (thigh), Maye seems likely to see his season-opening slump extend into Week 4.

Situational Downgrades In My Week 4 QB Rankings: Kirk Cousins vs. Chiefs & Jordan Love at Buccaneers

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Kirk Cousins (Raiders) vs. Chiefs: I've been impressed with the 3-0 Raiders, who are No. 7 in scoring (29.3 points per game), and that's in large part to Cousins, who has looked like the pre-Achilles tear version of himself (19.7 fantasy points per game, 661 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 7.7 AY/A). But this is not the spot to start him with confidence: The Chiefs are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs (12.7), and they've drastically reduced home-field advantage for the Raiders because they are in the same division and play on a similar grass surface. This week, Cousins could be without two supporting starters in WR Jack Bech (forearm and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin).

Jordan Love (Packers) at Buccaneers: The Packers have a three-day rest advantage off Thursday Night Football, but that's outweighed by the fact that this is their third game in four weeks on the road, where Love has underperformed expectations (11-18-1 ATS, -26.6% ROI), especially since last year (2-9 ATS, -65.6% ROI). Plus, the Bucs are at home for their third straight game. The Packers offense could be without five starters: RB Josh Jacobs (Commissioner Exempt List), WR Jayden Reed (neck), LG Aaron Banks (toe), RG Jacob Monk (undisclosed), and RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee). Not great.

Week 4 QB Rankings: Offensive Injury Downgrades: Brock Purdy vs. Broncos & Geno Smith at Bears

Here are a couple of QBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Brock Purdy (Niners) vs. Broncos: Purdy has been awesome. He's playing at an MVP level (27.3 fantasy points per game, 789 yards passing, 9 TDs, 1 INT, 11.1 AY/A with 10-93-1 rushing), and he already has two top-5 fantasy finishes to his name this season (Weeks 2-3, 28.5 & 31.3 points). But despite playing their third consecutive home game, the 49ers have been literally around the world and back compared to the Broncos (15,749 miles vs. 2,053), who are No. 5 in defensive dropback SR (42.7%). But most importantly, No. 1 WR Mike Evans (ribs) is uncertain, WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR) are out, and Pro Bowl LT Trent Williams (neck) is questionable.

Geno Smith (Jets) at Bears: The Bears have had the No. 5 home-field advantage over the past five years (+4.72, per NFElo), and it's boosted by the fact that the Jets are out of division/conference and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, they're playing their third road game in four weeks while the Bears are at home for a third consecutive matchup. Additionally, the Jets could be without three core skill-position contributors in RB Breece Hall (thigh), WR Adonai Mitchell (finger), and TE Mason Taylor (thumb), as well as LG Dylan Parham (knee). Smith's reunion with the Jets has gone well so far (17.0 fantasy points per game, 783 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 8.5 AY/A with 13-36-0 rushing), but eventually he'll look like the guy the Seahawks and Raiders parted ways with over the past two years.

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)