Upgrades For Week 4 Running Back Rankings: Aaron Jones Turns Back The Clock

Let's get into the Week 4 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

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Week 4 Running Back Rankings

Week 4 Matchup Upgrades: Christian McCaffrey vs. Broncos & Bucky Irving vs. Packers

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Broncos and Packers are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

• Broncos: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.107)
• Packers: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.6)

Bang a gong.

Christian McCaffrey (Niners) vs. Broncos: McCaffrey hasn't been quite the usage all-star this year that he was last year (98 Utilization Score vs. 86, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but he has still put up back-to-back top-5 fantasy finishes over the past two weeks, and his overall production has been more than acceptable (17.2 fantasy points per game, 270 yards, 3 TDs on 35 carries, 17 targets). Despite playing their third consecutive home game, the 49ers have been literally around the world and back compared to the Broncos (15,749 miles vs. 2,053), so the setup isn't perfect, but I expect McCaffrey to get his production as the focal point of the offense without No. 1 WR Mike Evans (ribs) as well as WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR).

Bucky Irving (Bucs) vs. Packers: It's not ideal that Irving will be without QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) for Week 4 … but in Weeks 1-3, the Packers were destroyed by RBs (470 yards, 6 TDs on 87 carries, 10 targets) on offenses with QBs Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Geno Smith and Michael Penix. Those guys are probably better than undrafted rookie backup Jalon Daniels, but an RB doesn't need to be attached to an elite QB to have success against the Packers, who could be without LB Edgerrin Cooper (head). The No. 11 RB in Utilization Score (80), Irving has seemingly regained his rookie-year form (241 yards, 1 TD on 40 carries, 15 targets), and I like his setup: The Bucs are at home for their third straight game, and the Packers are on their third road game in four weeks.

Week 4 Scoring Upgrades: James Cook vs. Patriots & Derrick Henry vs. Titans

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Bills are No. 1 in implied team total (27.5 points); the Ravens, No. 2  (27.0).

Upgrades warranted.

James Cook (Bills) vs. Patriots: QB Josh Allen (knee) is technically uncertain to play, but I expect him to suit up given that 1) he completed the game this past week and 2) the Bills still have the slate's highest total. For the season, Cook has once again looked like one of the league's best RBs (362 yards, 2 TDs on 58 carries, 8 targets, 82 Utilization Score), and in terms of travel, the Pats are significantly disadvantaged: This is their third road game in four weeks, and they've accumulated considerably more miles than the Bills (7,347 vs. 2,580 for the season). Plus, the Pats are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (0.003) and could be without EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) and DT Christian Barmore (shoulder).

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Titans: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! … Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!" Henry has continued to dominate in 2026 (24.1 fantasy points per game, 339 yards, 6 TDs on 66 carries, 5 targets), and now he gets his first-ever #RevengeGame against the Titans as a massive favorite (-10.5) at home, where they have an amplified advantage because the Titans are out of division and on grass (vs. turf). Not everything is perfect: The Ravens could be weary from the road (4,808 travel miles this week, 10,653 over the past month), and they could be without LT Ronnie Stanley (toe). Even so, I can't imagine Henry not smashing the 0-3 Titans.

Week 4 Home Favorite Upgrades: D'Andre Swift vs. Jets & Aaron Jones vs. Dolphins

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs. Jets: QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is uncertain to play, but even without him, the Bears offense put up 27 points against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Against the Jets, who are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+3.5), the Bears should have no problem putting up points, and Swift should be more or less his usual self (17.4 fantasy points per game, 321 yards, 3 TDs on 54 carries, 9 targets, 82 Utilization Score). The Bears have had the No. 5 home-field advantage over the past five years (+4.72, per NFElo), and it's boosted by the fact that the Jets are out of division/conference and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, they're playing their third road game in four weeks while the Bears are at home for a third consecutive matchup.

Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs. Dolphins: Over the past two weeks, with No. 1 RB Jordan Mason (thumb, IR) unavailable, Jones has dominated the backfield (81% snap rate, 83% rush share, 52% route rate, 80 Utilization Score) and put up numbers (197 yards, 0 TDs on 40 carries, 6 targets). This week, he's home in Minnesota, where the Vikings had the No. 5 home-field advantage last year. Additionally, the Vikings have a fully maximized home edge against the Dolphins, who are out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Without No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (ankle), the Vikings offense could funnel more through the backfield, and QB Kyler Murray has been strong against non-divisional opponents throughout his career (36-22 ATS, 21.0% ROI, per Action Network). Best of all, the Dolphins are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.4).

Week 4 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Chuba Hubbard vs. Lions & Jaylen Warren at Browns

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs. Lions: Last week, without No. 2 RB Jonathon Brooks (abdomen, IR), Hubbard easily controlled the backfield (84% snap rate, 83% rush share, 69% route rate, 85 Utilization Score), and for the season his production has been on par (16.2 fantasy points per game, 261 yards, 3 TDs on 41 carries, 9 targets). Now without WRs Jalen Coker (quadriceps) and Xavier Legette (knee), the team might rely on Hubbard all the more against the Lions, who are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.045).

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) at Browns: No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (toe) neither practiced nor played last week, and in his absence Warren had a position-high 93% snap rate, which he leveraged into the type of production and usage Warren stans have long been clamoring for (176 yards, 0 TDs on 17 carries, 4 targets, 91 Utilization Score). I like the edge the Steelers have against first-year Browns HC Todd Monken needing to prepare on short rest, and home-field advantage for the Browns is greatly diminished in this spot because the Steelers are in division and play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium.

Week 4 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Bijan Robinson at Saints & David Montgomery vs. Cowboys

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Saints: If you have Robinson, you're clearly starting him. He's awesome (23.7 fantasy points per game, 467 total yards, 3 TDs on 66 carries, 16 targets). This note is just to say that I expect him to be in the "Jahmyr Gibbs tier" this week. With the return of QB Michael Penix (knee) last week, the Falcons scored 35 points, and now they have a three-day rest-and-prep advantage against the Saints, whose home-field advantage is cut down to the core because the Falcons play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. The Saints are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (14.9%), and they could be without EDGE Anfernee Jennings (knee), NT Christen Miller (toe) and LB Pete Werner (neck).

David Montgomery (Texans) vs. Cowboys: I'm not sure if Montgomery is still good at football. Week 1 was nice enough (79 yards, 3 TDs), but Weeks 2-3 left much to be desired (72 yards, 0 TDs), and the Texans are a pitiful 0-3. Montgomery's usage isn't sufficient to get a sicko like me excited (55% snap rate, 56% rush share, 42% route rate, 65 Utilization Score). But the Texans are playing their third home game in four weeks, and the Cowboys have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). The Cowboys are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (45.7%), and LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) hasn't played since Week 1. That's good enough. It's dirty, but I'd be fine starting Montgomery in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

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