Week 10 Fantasy Football Receiver Score Buys & Fades: Looking Up For Josh Downs in KC
Zain Dhanani high points the Week 10 edition of Receiver score, featuring players to buy and fade.
I’ve been waiting to see Josh Downs with a better QB. Now he gets Patrick Mahomes, and I’m buying.
As always, this analysis informs my weekly fantasy football rankings and our rest-of-season rankings. Also, make sure to check out our fantasy football projections.
Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Buying
Josh Downs—Buy as a WR3
Downs averaged 8.3 receiving PPR points per game in his nine games in Indianapolis (low-end WR5). Receiver Score had him at 12.8 (low-end WR2). He ran 90% of the routes and drew 52 targets against 64.4 expected. He was targeted on 24.6% of his routes in 2024-25 and 16.9% this year. I’m buying him as a WR3 with Mahomes.
Mahomes ranks second out of 29 QBs with at least 150 aimed targets in catchable rate (82.9%), compared to Daniel Jones at 26th (72.2%). Inside 10 yards, Mahomes is at 91.2% and Jones is at 83.4%. At 10-19 yards, it’s 68.2% to 58.9%. Downs saw 45 of his 52 aimed targets inside 20 yards.
Downs’ own catchable rate was 76.9%, almost exactly league average (76.6%). Applying Mahomes’ rates at each depth to the same 52 targets gets you about 42 catchable balls. Downs got 40. I’m more interested in the targets he wasn’t getting in Indianapolis.
Downs is fifth out of 113 qualified WRs in average separation grade. His win rate is 13.7%, 47th in that same group. Fifteen of his 40 wins got one of the top two grades, and just 8 of his 292 routes got a negative grade.
The man coverage split is the one I’d build around. Downs was in the 94th percentile in separation and 88th in win rate against man. He was at 2.25 yards per route (69th percentile) and drew a target on 31% of his routes. Against zone he still graded well for separation (89th percentile), but was at 0.91 yards per route (19th percentile) and got a target on 15% of his routes.
Give him the slants and outs. He won on 6 of his 14 slants and 5 of his 11 outs against man. Those two routes accounted for 133 of his 144 yards against man all season. On third down, he averaged 3.31 yards per graded route against man and 0.43 against zone. That’s where I’d start with him in Kansas City.
There was a real drop-off. His average separation grade fell from 0.198 in Weeks 1-5 to 0.123 in Weeks 6-9. His win rate went from 16.0% to 10.8%. The grade hit a low of 0.042 in Week 7 and got back to 0.194 in Week 9. All 6 of his targets Sunday were first reads, but he dropped 2 and finished with 24 yards.
I’m with KC Sports Network on getting him involved underneath from the slot. Once he’s up to speed, I’d also use him at Z with Rashee Rice inside and Xavier Worthy outside on the line when all three are out there. Starting Downs off the line gives him room to get into his route and lets Reid move him across the formation. He averaged 1.81 yards per route when in motion at the snap in Indy (19% of his routes), compared to 1.00 without it.
Downs’ separation grade at Z this year was 0.225 on 40 routes, better than his 0.139 from the slot. He only managed 0.63 yards per route at Z, though. He was at 1.61 on 83 Z routes in 2024-25 and earned targets there at about the same rate as he did in the slot. I’d give him some of Worthy’s outs (2.19 yards per route for Downs, 0.84 for Worthy this year). Worthy has done more with the crossers (3.67 to 0.53) and can still run the deeper routes when he’s healthy.
I still think the guy who earned targets on nearly a quarter of his routes the last two years is there. The Chiefs can use him on those third downs against man, but they’ll have to call some different stuff to get more out of him. Mahomes targets his WRs on outs and slants at about two-thirds the league rate. He throws crossers at nearly 1.5 times the league rate, and flats and screens account for 23% of his WR targets. Worthy has 32 targets under 10 air yards this year, including 14 on flats and screens. That’s where I’d start looking for extra targets for Downs.
I have more questions about what he’ll do against zone. Downs had 7 targets and 27 yards on 87 routes against Cover 2 and Cover 4, and Kansas City sees two-high about as often as Indianapolis did. I’d still move him inside on passing downs and see if he can earn some of Worthy’s short work there.
I think Downs can win two-WR snaps ahead of Worthy once he’s settled. Kansas City has used two TEs on a third of its dropbacks, and Rice and Worthy were both on the field on 72 of its 164 two-TE snaps through Week 9. The 164 includes runs and games Rice missed. That’s a meaningful part of the offense for Downs to earn. I’d like to see some Downs and Rice with Downs inside. He drew 7 targets on 21 slot routes with two TEs in Indianapolis and just 3 on 32 outside. Rice has averaged 4.20 yards per route at Z with two TEs (15 routes). When Rice comes off, I’d pair Downs with Worthy and keep Worthy outside.
Kansas City is throwing 4.4 percentage points over expectation, but it’s averaged fewer dropbacks than Indianapolis (36.4 to 38.0). Once Worthy is back, I have Downs at 9.5-11.1 receiving PPR points per game (high-end WR5 to high-end WR4) if he runs 80% of the routes without picking up any of Worthy’s designed targets. Give him about 3 of Worthy’s short targets a game in that same role and it goes to 8-9 targets and 13.9-15.3 points per game (high-end WR2 to low-end WR1). He’d be ahead of Rice and Travis Kelce in targets in that case. If Worthy keeps the two-WR snaps, Downs is closer to 7.4-8.8 points per game (WR5+ to mid-tier WR5). Even with the extra short targets, I get 11.7-13.0 per game (mid-tier WR3 to low-end WR2) over the next 8 when I include the time it takes him to learn the offense.
It’s important to see the range of outcomes when modeling the different roles. If I can give up a lower-end WR3 like Denzel Boston, Tre Tucker, Jordan Addison, or Antonio Williams to acquire him, I am interested. If he wins that two-WR role, high-end WR3 is still my most likely outcome.
Jordyn Tyson—Buy
Tyson caught 4 passes for 30 yards in his debut, good for 7.0 receiving PPR points on a 4.9 expectation. He fumbled his first catch near the goal line and still ran 14 of his 16 routes after halftime. Kellen Moore said the workload was about what he expected coming off the hamstring injury. Tyson played just 18 snaps, and half of them came in the fourth quarter of a close game.
He ran 8 routes from the slot and 8 outside, with motion at the snap on 5 of them. Tyler Shough found him twice on 4 drags for 18 yards. Tyson had 3 first-read targets and got 3 targets on third down. The Saints can keep using him that way as his snaps go up. Shough has targeted his WRs on crossers 21% more often per route than league average, and he throws slants even more often relative to the league (29%).
At 70% of the routes, Receiver Score gives Tyson 4.9 targets and 8.7 points per game (mid-tier WR5). Plug in the median production per route from the 12 top-15 rookie WRs we looked at and it’s 10.0 (high-end WR5). I think Tyson can earn at that rookie rate. He got looks from both alignments in his first game, and there’s a job for him on the routes Shough already throws. At those rookie rates, 80% of the routes gets him to 11.5 points per game (low-end WR3) and 90% gets him to 12.9 (low-end WR2).
Tank Dell—Add or Buy
Dell scored 20.5 receiving PPR points on 10.1 expected in his second game back. He’s averaged 12.9 receiving points through those two games. He went from 20% of the routes in his first game to 55% against the Chargers, and got 39.1% of Houston’s first-read targets. His 63-yard TD came in the second quarter of a one-point game. DeMeco Ryans said the Texans got the coverage they wanted and took the shot to Dell.
The role looks a lot like the one he had before the injury. He ran 15 of his 22 routes outside and six off play-action Sunday, with a 16.6-yard average target depth. C.J. Stroud has the deepest average target of any QB in my sample (10.4 yards), and 60% of his throws at least 20 yards downfield have been catchable. Dell’s 3 big catches were a hitch for 43, a go for 32 and the out-and-up for 63. That’s 138 of his 148 yards in two games.
I think Dell is still good. He has 6 route wins in 25 graded reps since coming back, and Houston is giving him the same verticals, deep breakers and outs he ran before the injury. We’ve barely seen him against man so far (3 of his 28 routes), but he’s done this in a full-time role before. He got a target on 24% of his routes in 2023 with a 72% route share, and on 19% in 2024 with an 81% route share.
All 22 routes Sunday came with three WRs out there. He can get to 70% by running more of those routes in place of Kayshon Boutte and Marvin Harrison Jr., and the model gets him to 5.5 targets and 11.3 points per game there (low-end WR3). At his 2023 production per route, that’s closer to 12.9 (low-end WR2). I’d like to see him stay on with Nico Collins in two-WR sets. Xavier Hutchinson has been getting that work, and splitting it with him gets Dell to about 80% of the routes, 6.4 targets and 13.1 points per game (mid-tier WR2).
Dell is my first waiver add (23.5% rostered on ESPN). I’d spend 10-15% of FAAB and start flexing him once he’s running about 65% of the routes. If he starts taking some of those two-WR snaps, there’s a WR2 here.
Konata Mumpfield—Add in deeper leagues
Mumpfield averaged 2.2 receiving PPR points per game on 2.9 expected over the last 3 games with Davante Adams out. Puka Nacua got 41 targets in those games and Mumpfield got 5 on 66 routes. He did more in the two games without Nacua earlier in the year (10 targets on 63 routes with Adams still playing). Sean McVay expects Nacua to miss at least a month. We haven’t seen the Rams play a game without both of them.
The snaps I care about are the ones with three TEs and one WR. The Rams have used three TEs more often than three WRs in each of the last three games. They still had 64 dropbacks with three WRs and 33 with three TEs because they throw far more often when they spread out. Nacua ran 31 of those 33 lone-WR routes. Mumpfield already ran 98% of the Rams’ routes with three WRs over that stretch, but he’s run noly three routes with three TEs all season. If he takes that spot and stays on with Tutu Atwell when they go to two WRs, he can run nearly every route.
I’d start with outs. Mumpfield has 103 of his 162 yards on 22 outs, and Matthew Stafford targets his WRs on those routes 21% more often per route than league average. Mumpfield has been productive outside against man (93 yards on 31 routes). I have a hard time seeing him earn like a lead WR against zone, where he’s 96th of 107 WRs in targets per route with zero yards on 66 combined digs, deep breakers and verticals. He’s earned 4 targets on 67 routes against press, and he got 4 on just 9 routes when he was in motion at the snap. I’d move him around even when he’s the only WR and give him a chance to get to those outs without a corner in his face at the line.
I have Mumpfield at 6 targets and 10.0 points per game if he leads the room and runs 80% of the routes. At the Rams’ recent pace of 34 dropbacks a game (41 for the season), it’s 9.0. If they use even more three-TE sets and split the lone-WR routes, it’s 7.6 (low-end WR5).
Give me Tyler Higbee first if I need a TE in a 12-team league. Over the last two seasons, he’s had a 31% target share with Stafford at QB and Nacua off the field (119 routes).
Mumpfield is probably a WR4, that you stash and see if he has any juice.
Mack Hollins—Deep-league stream
Hollins scored 12.6 receiving PPR points on 9.7 expected in his first game off IR and ran 74% of the routes. He got 5 first-read targets, but 9.2 of his points came after Green Bay went up by at least 21. Before that he had 14 yards on 3 targets and 23 routes. Across all 5 games he’s averaged 9.7 points per game (high-end WR5) on 6.7 expected.
Hollins is good at the job the Patriots need him to do. He’s earned 23 targets on 92 outside routes (16.7 expected), and he’s at 2.83 yards per route outside against zone. He ranks 8th of 107 WRs in grade per route against zone and has 147 yards against Cover 4 and Cover 6. He’s drawn only 2 targets on 32 slot routes and has 17 yards on 23 routes against man.
Drake Maye takes 3.23 seconds to throw on average and has the second-deepest average target in the league (10.2 yards). I like what Hollins can do on the longer-developing routes with Maye. He’s gained 47 yards on 10 deep breakers against zone, and he’s caught 7 of 9 targets from 10-19 air yards for 118 yards. He’s caught only 2 of 7 throws of 20-plus air yards.
Hollins stays on with two WRs more often than Douglas, and I think he’ll keep doing that against Detroit. Romeo Doubs is on IR, and Brown is traveling to Germany with his playing status still up in the air. I have Hollins at about 5 targets and 10.0 points per game with both out, and 6.8 (WR5+) if Brown plays. New England has a bye next week and Doubs is eligible to come back after it. Mack Hollins probably has only one more week of relevance with reinforcements due back soon.
DeMario Douglas—PPR flex while Brown is out
Douglas has averaged 12.4 receiving PPR points per game (low-end WR2) on 8.5 expected over his last three games. He got 8 first reads on Sunday (26.7% of New England’s) and had 77 of his 102 yards before Green Bay went up by 21. He’s run 84% of the routes in the two games without Brown and Doubs, and he was still in the slot on 89% of his routes against the Packers.
Douglas averaged 12.7 air yards per target in each of his last two games, and New England had him moving at the snap on 34% of his routes Sunday. Hitches, deep breakers and verticals are still the routes he runs most. He’s done more with his crossers and digs (173 yards on 48 routes), and Maye’s WRs are averaging nearly 16 yards per target on digs and other in-breakers. I’d keep sending Douglas across the field when teams play man.
I think Douglas is a good slot receiver. He’s won on 40% of his graded routes against man, and he ranks 4th of 79 WRs at 3.49 yards per route against it. He’s been good against press, too, (2.90 yards per route, 9th of 100). Zone is still three-quarters of his routes and he’s won on only 6.7% of them. His slot routes were worth about 0.30 expected points per route in Weeks 1-4 and about the same over his last three games. He’s making more of those routes (0.74 to 1.74 yards per route), and the injuries have given him more of them.
The two-WR snaps are where the injury returns hurt him. He’s run a route on 94% of New England’s dropbacks with three WRs and just 22% with two WRs and two TEs. I’d like to see him keep some of those two-WR snaps when Brown is back. Until then, I have him at 11.6 points per game with both starters out (low-end WR3), 8.7 (mid-tier WR5) with Brown back and 6.8 (WR5+) once both are healthy. I’d flex him in PPR if Brown sits in Munich and try to move him for Dell during the bye. Give me Dell for the rest of the season.
Players Mentioned in this Article
Presented by
Published Updated