Worst-Case Scenarios For The 2026 NFL Rookie Class In Fantasy Football

I try to be an optimistic guy. Hopefully, that comes across in the many articles I’ve written about this year’s rookie draft class so far.

But this time of year, when every player is in the “best shape of their lives”, and every rookie has turned into the second-coming of LaDainian Megatron Montana, it’s good to remind people that rookies are risky, especially in fantasy.

So I’m putting down the rose-colored glasses and taking a brief detour through Negative Town to help recalibrate our expectations. Because when you’re on the clock, ready to draft one of these guys, you might think “eh, what’s the worst that could happen?” And I need you to know…it could be much worse than you think.

Worst Possible Outcomes For The 2026 Rookie Class In Fantasy Football

Fernando Mendoza | QB | LV

Worst-Case Scenario: Sad sack Baker Mayfield from his Cleveland days.

Remember when Baker showed up to a post-game press conference looking like he was preparing for the role of John Candy in a community theater rendition of Planes, Trains and Automobiles? That, folks, is what two seasons of playing for the Cleveland f**king Browns will do to a guy.

And playing in Vegas isn’t that much better. Sure, it’s sunnier. Yes, you can catch the Backstreet Boys at the Sphere on your nights off. But at the end of the day, Jalen Nailor is still your WR1, and if anything happens to Brock Bowers, you’re gonna WISH you looked as happy as Baker did at that press conference. Mendoza projects as a decent quarterback, but he’s not the “tide to lift all boats” type.

Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI

Worst-Case Scenario: Lesser-used Ashton Jeanty.

As much as I want to invoke the name Trent Richardson for an easy provocation, I just can’t do it. But there are shades to the worst parts of Jeanty’s rookie situation appearing in the Arizona desert. And I can’t be sure that they’re mirages.

What if Jacoby Brissett’s contract dispute bleeds into the regular season? What if we get a whole bunch of Carson Beck under center? Would the rookie QB be able to utilize Trey McBride as the dominant threat he’s supposed to be? And if not, does every defense just form a brick wall in front of the rookie running back?

Also, Jeanty’s only threat in the backfield was Zamir White. Love has to contend with noted touchdown vulture and hopeful-turned-scorned free agent pickup Tyler Allgeier. Jeanty only paid off last year because he got so much volume. If Love doesn’t get the same workload and the passing game stagnates … we could be in for some devastation.

Carnell Tate | WR | TEN

Worst-Case Scenario: Follows in the upsetting tradition of first-round Titans WRs.

Tate might be the most pro-ready receiver in this draft class, but no first-round rookie receiver is truly ready for life as a Tennessee Titan.

Treylon Burks, Corey Davis, Kendall Wright … the Titans sure know how to pick ‘em, don’t they? That trio averaged 44 catches, 482 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in their rookie seasons. And I rounded up.

When your biggest success story in the first round over the last 25 years is Kenny Britt, respectfully, an organization should do the honorable thing and wait until the second round to even consider drafting a receiver.

Maybe Tate transforms from Ohio State’s second fiddle into Tennessee’s top … cello? But it wouldn’t shock me to see Calvin Ridley, who hit a career-high yards per reception last season, squeeze one last gasp of greatness out of his career. Or for the electric Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor to stay very involved. And Brian Daboll is sure going to like having the familiar, do-everything Wan’Dale Robinson on this crew. Point being … Tate could get boxed out of the massive target share we all want for him.

Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO

Worst-Case Scenario: Never-ending “Questionable” game day status.

Laughing at someone else’s pain isn’t cool. So let me just say I really hope Tyson goes on to have a long and healthy career in the NFL. But …

The trifecta ligament tear at Colorado (ACL, MCL and PCL) plus the recent hamstring injury that sidelined him for the NFL Combine raises some questions about his durability. The worst thing for fantasy wouldn’t be for Tyson to miss a chunk of time with these injuries. If that’s the case, you just put him on your bench and try to find a fill-in.

The worst thing would be for Tyson to have constant flare-ups, but try to play through them, causing lineup decision headaches on a weekly basis. We all want another Julio Jones, but not in that way.

Ty Simpson | QB | LAR

Worst-Case Scenario: Spends his rookie contract holding a clipboard.

Stafford signed an extension to keep him with the team through 2027, which means Simpson should hypothetically be the guy in 2028 (or sooner, if Stafford gets hurt). But … what if Stafford doesn’t get hurt?

What if that cryochamber he locked himself in last offseason is some top secret NASA sh*t that truly fixed Stafford’s back? What if he keeps playing on one-year extensions until he’s a 42-year-old starting QB who still dresses like a freshman beer pong champion?

Simpson’s college profile does not bode well for NFL success, even if he gets to start soon. And he’s certainly not the bona fide rookie talent that can push an above-average veteran out of the way.

Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ

Worst-Case Scenario: The Jets can’t refine his raw materials.

“Super athletic, raw, developmental tight end with untapped upside if he can just put it all together.” I’ve definitely never heard that exact description used to describe a doomed tight end before.

Certainly not for Noah Fant. Or O.J. Howard. Or Mike Gesicki. Or Irv Smith Jr. Or …

Makai Lemon | WR | PHI

Worst-Case Scenario: Character actor instead of leading man.

As a card-carrying Lemonhead (we meet on Tuesdays, bring your own donuts), it makes me physically nauseous to even think about the worst-case scenario for the new Eagle. But I have to be fair and balanced.

Just because Philadelphia drafted him in the first round, that doesn’t mean he’s locked into a leading role. Lemon doesn’t have the physical stature of Tate or Tyson, and the Eagles loaded up with solid receiving talent in free agency. This will also be a brand-new offense (with Saquon Barkley lingering), and nothing is set in stone.

Also … we all saw the Combine interview. We caught the creepy, dead-eyed, serial-killer vibes. You have to be extremely well-adjusted to play for Nick Sirianni, and folks, we can only hope that Lemon has that quality.

KC Concepcion | WR | CLE

Worst-Case Scenario: Background extra instead of character actor.

This is essentially the same argument as Lemon’s, except Concepcion has to play for the Browns. With Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson as his quarterback.

Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ

Worst-Case Scenario: Begging for scraps of stale bread.

Dwain McFarland already listed Terrace Marshall as one of this man’s statistical comps, so this feels like kicking a guy while he’s down.

Instead of talking bad about Cooper, I’m just going to hype up Garrett Wilson, the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL. This guy has slogged his way through four years of QB sewage and still comes out the other end smelling like 1,000-yard seasons. You think he’s going to step aside even a little now that he finally has semi-competent quarterback play?

Besides, Geno Smith is an improvement, not a magician.

Jadarian Price | RB | SEA

Worst-Case Scenario: Just another rotational back on the Seattle carousel.

I can’t fathom a world where Price doesn’t see some decent action at the start of the season while Zach Charbonnet rehabs his ACL. He should be given all the work he can handle so the team knows whether he can be their lead back of the future.

And yet, this is the Seahawks. That’s not what they do. There is nothing this organization loves more than a committee. Emanuel Wilson is gonna get a bunch of snaps. George Holani is gonna get a bunch of snaps. If you show up to an open practice and impress a member of the coaching staff walking by in the parking lot, YOU will get a bunch of snaps. It’s the Seahawks way.

Players Mentioned in this Article

Published Jun 28, 2026, 6:55 AM ET