Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet For Week 4

Welcome to Week 4! Are you enjoying the "best sweat in fantasy football" that we've been telling you about? If you've been on the chopping block on Sunday night and survived, you're fully entrenched. It's all smooth sailing from here. Not!

We want more, so to help you to keep surviving the chop in Guillotine Leagues™️, Kendall Valenzuela, Matthew Freedman and Pete Overzet got together for a round table discussion with several player recommendations for this week. Also, make sure to consult our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections when setting your lineup.

Week 4 Cheat Sheet for Guillotine Leagues™️

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 4?

Freedman: Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs. Dolphins

Over the past two weeks, with No. 1 RB Jordan Mason (thumb, IR) unavailable, Jones has dominated the backfield (81% snap rate, 83% rush share, 52% route rate, 80 Utilization Score) and put up numbers (197 yards, 0 TDs on 40 carries, 6 targets). This week, he's home in Minnesota, where the Vikings had the No. 5 home-field advantage last year. Additionally, the Vikings have a fully maximized home edge against the Dolphins, who are out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Without No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (ankle), the Vikings offense could funnel more through the backfield, and QB Kyler Murray has been strong against non-divisional opponents throughout his career (36-22 ATS, 21.0% ROI, per Action Network). Best of all, the Dolphins are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.4).

Via my Week 4 RB Favorites

Kendall: David Montgomery vs. Cowboys

Yeah, yeah I'm back on David Montgomery, but I swear it has to work this time … right? He's had a combined 11.2 fantasy points over the last two weeks, but now he gets to face a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed on planned rush plays. Woody Marks is definitely involved, but I think there's enough to go around in this matchup.

Pete: Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs. Giants

This seems hard to believe, but Tyler Allgeier has already been discarded. In Week 3, Love played 63% of the snaps, earned a 78% rush share, and 69% of short-yardage work for a 91 Utilization Score and 21.9 points. Now he gets a juicy matchup vs. the Giants. The floor and ceiling are great.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 4?

Freedman: Devaughn Vele (Saints) vs. Falcons

No. 1 WR Chris Olave is the headliner, but Vele also deserves some shine. Using the absence of No. 2 WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring, IR) to strengthen his position in the offense (10.2 fantasy points per game, 15-172-1 receiving, 22 targets, 93% route rate, 68 Utilization Score), Vele has an opportunity to exploit this matchup: The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (43.4%), and No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (groin, IR) is out. If you're desperate, I'm fine with starting Vele in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Via my Week 4 WR Favorites

Kendall: Josh Downs vs. Commanders

With Alec Pierce on IR, I think everyone should be as excited as ever to start Josh Downs. Washington has five secondary players with a passer rating allowed of 118.8 or higher. In Week 3, Downs locked down a 29% target share and over the last two games has an 81 Utilization Score.

Pete: Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) vs. Bengals

He's one of two full-time WRs in this offense and he earned 31% of the targets in Week 2. Now he gets the best game environment of the week (highest total on the slate) to continue racking up points.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 4?

Freedman: Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Rams

The 2-1 Eagles right now (in my opinion) are one of the fakest teams in football. They have a negative point differential (-14) and a horrendous market record (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI, per Action Network). This is the kind of thing that can happen when you have your … counting … seventh offensive playcaller in seven years. On top of that, this offseason the Eagles fired longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland and brought in OC Sean Mannion, who had no playcalling experience and just two years as a coach. It's no wonder the Eagles are underwhelming. As for Barkley, we've seen better days (6.5 fantasy points per game, 180 yards, 0 TDs on 34 carries, 6 targets, 50 Utilization Score), and we probably won't see them return this week against the Rams, who are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-5.0). If you have Barkley, you're starting him in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week. You can't bench him. But at the same time … you definitely won't feel good about starting him.

Via my Week 4 RB Fades

Kendall: Jalen Hurts vs. Rams

This is just not a good spot for this Eagles team coming off a defeating loss against the Bears. There is just something wrong with this offense—they rank No. 31 in the NFL in three-and-punt percentage and have inconsistencies across the board. For Hurts, he's facing a Rams defense that ranks second in yards allowed per passing attempt (5.2) and ninth in Total QBR allowed (53.2). The plus here is that Hurts has that dual-threat ability that can help fantasy managers, I'm just not going to look at his Guillotine League points until Monday just in case he breaks some hearts.

Pete: Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Texans

Williams' Utilization is great, but he gets a brutal matchup here vs. the toughest rush defense in the league. Houston gives up the smallest fantasy boost (-8.1) to opposing RBs of any team in the league. Unless he scores a TD, we could be in for a dud here.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway?"

Freedman: Bryce Young (Panthers) vs. Lions

Last week Young had his worst performance of the season (14.6 points, 291 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 54.2% completion rate, 5.5 AY/A), which honestly is a vast improvement on the bad performances he used to have. I still think much of what we've seen out of Young this year is circumstantial … but he has gotten progressively better throughout his career, and to this point he has played like one of the league's best QBs (No. 4 with 23.7 fantasy points per game, 939 yards passing, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 8.2 AY/A with 3-16-1 rushing). Even though I believe those numbers are inflated, and I wish WR Jalen Coker (quadriceps) weren't dealing with an injury, I now feel comfortable enough to expect Young to exploit a good matchup … and this one is great: The Lions are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (33.5), and they're missing SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR). I'm fine with starting Young in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Via my Week 4 QB Favorites

Kendall: Darren Waller vs. Lions

This just goes more in line with the fact that the Panthers are facing the Lions in Week 4. Darren Waller is a touchdown-dependent tight end, but he has been scoring and now is going against a Detroit team that's allowing a league-worst 299.3 pass yards per game.

Pete: Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs. Dolphins

The floor is dangerous here, but Addison could feast against this hapless Miami squad–especially if Justin Jefferson isn't at 100%. Addison had the fifth most air yards in Week 3 and should be able to get loose for a few big plays in this one.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 4?

Freedman: Colston Loveland (Bears) vs. Jets

On the one hand, Loveland has been terrible this season (2.0 fantasy points per game, 5-34-0 receiving, 9 targets). On the other hand, he was his best last week (5.1 points, 4-31-0 receiving, 4 targets). And yet … still terrible. He's No. 5 on the team in target share (9%) and air yards (7%). Right now, he's simply not an important part of this offense, which might once again be without No. 1 QB Caleb Williams (hamstring), and the matchup isn't friendly: The Jets are No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.3).

Via my Week 4 TE Fades

Kendall: Mike Evans vs. Broncos

If Mike Evans is able to play, I worry about him going up against this Denver Broncos defense. They are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to wide receivers.

Pete: Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs. Dolphins

The flip side of the Addison call. If JJ doesn't play, you are at chop risk. If he does play, but isn't 100%, you are at chop risk. We still haven't seen him and Kyler Murray for an extended duration either. Lots of risk here.