Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet For Week 9: Bench Caleb Williams?

Bring on Week 9! And then there were 10 who evaded the chopping block. Now try and keep the good times rolling—and not the heads—without Jaylen Warren and the recent dominator Tony Pollard. Can you survive without them on your roster through their bye week? If you don't have them, maybe you'll be bidding on them in a few days.

So to help you to keep surviving the chop in Guillotine Leagues™️, Matthew Freedman, Kendall Valenzuela and Pete Overzet got together for a round table discussion with several player recommendations for this week. Also, make sure to consult our fantasy football rankings, fantasy football projections and DvP Tool when setting your lineup. Happy chopping!

Week 9 Guillotine Leagues Cheat Sheet

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 9?

Freedman: Woody Marks (Texans) at Chargers

No. 1 RB David Montgomery (groin) might return this week off the bye … but I'm skeptical, and Marks has been serviceable over the past two games in his stead (8.9 fantasy points per game, 162 yards, 0 TDs on 34 carries, 4 targets, 70% rush share, 56% route rate, 70 Utilization Score). Although the Texans are on the road, they're coming off an extended break and playing in an indoor stadium with turf. Marks could get extended action as a -5 favorite, and the Chargers are No. 27 in defensive rush DVOA (0.2%).

Via my Week 9 RB Favorites

Pete: Jonah Coleman (Broncos) vs. CAR

Maybe the Broncos will end up trading for Jonathan Taylor, but until then it is the Coleman show at RB. He handled 52% of the rushing attempts vs. the Chiefs last week, but more excitingly, he owned all of the high-value touches–4-of-5 attempts inside the 5-yard line and a 56% route share.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 9?

Freedman: Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs. Giants

With WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) out the past two weeks, Lemon has stepped up to serve as the team's No. 1 WR (95% route rate, 25% target share, 31% air yard share, 78 Utilization Score). Thankfully for fantasy investors, he has converted his usage into respectable production (12.5 fantasy points per game, 13-124-1 receiving, 17 targets) after doing little in Weeks 1-6 (3.5 fantasy points per game, 18-127-0 receiving, 28 targets). With Smith and Wicks uncertain again, Lemon could be truly viable in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Via my Week 9 WR Favorites

Pete: Stefon Diggs (Commanders) vs. Rams

The Commanders will be chucking this entire game, and Diggs has a 23% target share on the year as Jayden Daniels' leading WR. Diggs has the underneath role–7.8-yard route depth from the slot (73%)–which gives him a solid floor. He might not go for 30, but he's going to get you 10+ and secure your advancement to Week 10.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 9?

Freedman: Caleb Williams (Bears) vs. Buccaneers

Williams has been efficient this year (70.9% completion rate, 8.5 AY/A), but in three games since returning from injury in Week 6, his production has been modest (17.5 fantasy points per game, 860 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INTs with 11-22-0 rushing). Plus, he has had negative splits as a home favorite (15.5 fantasy points per game, 59.1% completion rate, 7.2 AY/A vs. 17.9, 62.5%, 7.1 otherwise). Williams has been strong outside division (19-7-1 ATS, 39.1% ROI), and the Bears have had the No. 3 HFA over the past 16 games (+7.26), but they also have a diminished HFA against the Bucs because they play in conference on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Plus, the Bears have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and they're on their third road game in four weeks. Over the past month, the Bucs have an obscene nine INTs with a league-best 12 on the season. Although HC Todd Bowles is a suboptimal in-game strategist, his defense is one of the league's best units.

Via my Week 9 QB Fades

Pete: Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Giants. I don't care if this is a "revenge" game, but Barkley is playing hardly any snaps and now Joe Milton is the QB. He's a fringe FLEX play now, not a RB1 you can confidently trust in this format.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway"?

Freedman: Malik Willis (Dolphins) vs. Lions: The Dolphins are in a favorable spot. This will be their fifth week out of the past seven not on the road, and the Dolphins have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Since the Week 6 bye, Willis has played with promise (20.8 fantasy points per game, 419 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT with 9-39-1 rushing), and for the season he has been the No. 4 QB in designed rush share (9%) and scramble rate (9%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). On defense, the Lions could be without four starters in EDGE DJ Wonnum (concussion), LB Jack Campbell (neck), CB D.J. Reed (hip), and FS Brian Branch (concussion). I'd consider starting Willis in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Via my Week 9 QB Favorites

Pete: Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs. Saints

There's no floor here, but the Saints give up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. I'm willing to YOLO start Judkins and pray for 60+ yards and a TD.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 9?

Freedman: Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Jaguars: QB Lamar Jackson (thumb, previously ankle) exited Week 4 early, missed the next three games, and then suffered a potentially season-ending injury on his first snap of Week 8. With a partial/absent Jackson, Henry has been a shell of himself over the past five games (11.7 fantasy points per game, 368 yards, 3 TDs vs. 24.1, 339 yards, 6 in Weeks 1-3). What's worse: In Week 8, No. 2 QB Tyler Huntley (toe) also suffered an injury, so the Ravens will be rolling with undrafted rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano. On top of that, they could also be without LG John Simpson (back), RG Olaivavega Ioane (knee), and RT Roger Rosengarten (ankle). With short time to prepare before Thursday Night Football, the Ravens are +8.5 dogs, and Henry as a dog of at least a TD has had notable splits across his career (12.0 fantasy points per game, 68.3 yards, 0.83 TDs vs. 15.5, 98.2, 0.85 otherwise).

Via my Week 9 RB Fades (NEED URL)