Upgrades For Week 9 Running Back Rankings: Quinshon Judkins' Heavenly Matchup

Let's get into the Week 9 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

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Week 9 Running Back Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	MIA
2	Kenneth Walker	KC	NYJ
3	Christian McCaffrey	SF	LV
4	Bijan Robinson	ATL	CIN
5	Javonte Williams	DAL	IND
6	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	DEN
7	Kyren Williams	LA	WAS
8	Bhayshul Tuten	JAC	BAL
9	Bucky Irving	TB	CHI
10	James Cook	BUF	MIN
11	Josh Jacobs	GB	NE
12	D'Andre Swift	CHI	TB
13	Chase Brown	CIN	ATL
14	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	GB
15	Jonah Coleman	DEN	CAR
16	Derrick Henry	BAL	JAC
17	Jonathan Taylor	IND	DAL
18	Saquon Barkley	PHI	NYG
19	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	NO
20	Ollie Gordon	MIA	DET
21	Ashton Jeanty	LV	SF
22	Jo'quavioius Marks	HOU	LAC
23	Tyler Allgeier	ARI	SEA
24	Cam Skattebo	NYG	PHI

Week 9 Matchup Upgrades: Christian McCaffrey vs. Raiders & Quinshon Judkins at Saints

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Raiders and Saints are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Raiders: No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (11.3%)
Saints: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.9)

Bang a gong.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Raiders: McCaffrey (hamstring) suffered a dreaded soft-tissue injury in Week 7, but he returned to the game, did well (19.0 fantasy points, 100 yards, 1 TD on 7 carries, 7 targets), and then got to rest over the Week 8 bye, so I'm not worried too much about his Week 9 availability. For the season, McCaffrey has more or less been his reliable self (18.1 fantasy points per game, 640 yards, 8 TDs on 84 carries, 42 targets, 89 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). For this week, the 49ers are -9.5 favorites against a non-divisional/conference opponent at home off the bye. In fact, this will be their sixth week out of the past eight not on the road, and the Raiders are on their second straight road game after playing on the East Coast last week.

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) at Saints: The setup isn't great. The Saints are coming off the bye, they've played away from New Orleans just twice since Week 3, and they have a boosted HFA because the Browns are outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this is their third road game in four weeks. But even with the return of No. 2 RB Dylan Sampson in Week 7, Judkins has still dominated as the team's primary ballcarrier (14.4 fantasy points per game, 153 yards, 2 TDs on 28 carries, 3 targets, 68% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share). While Judkins is not a lock for volume as a road dog, this is the kind of matchup that can overcome game script, especially since the Saints could still be without DT Nathan Shepherd (illness) in addition to DT Bryan Bresee (knee, IR).

Week 9 Scoring Upgrades: Javonte Williams at Colts & Kenneth Walker vs. Jets

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Cowboys are No. 2 in implied team total (28.75 points); the Chiefs, No. 4 (28.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) at Colts: Williams was a fantasy favorite of mine last week, and that didn't work out too well (6.2 fantasy points, 57 yards, 0 TDs on 24 carries, 2 targets), but at least the volume was there (74% snap rate, 70% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 55% route rate), and for the season he has been a dependable mid-range RB1 (15.9 fantasy points per game, 632 yards, 9 TDs on 134 carries, 24 targets, 80 Utilization Score). The Colts have lost four straight games, and in those losses they allowed 29.5 points per game. After trading away DT DeForest Buckner last week, they yielded 42 points to the Jaguars. Plus, the Colts are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (3.8%).

Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) vs. Jets: I publicly faded Walker in Weeks 7-8, and fortunately (for me) he had his two worst games of the season (9.1 fantasy points per game, 141 yards, 0 TDs on 35 carries, 10 targets). But I'm back on him this week as a -9.5 favorite at Arrowhead Stadium: His usage over the past two weeks has still been strong (77% snap rate, 95% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 59% route rate, 82 Utilization Score), and he has had big splits as a home favorite in his brief tenure with the Chiefs (26.8 fantasy points per game, 169.3 yards, 1.3 TDs vs. 17.2, 98.3, 1.0 otherwise). The Jets could be without EDGEs David Bailey (groin) and Joseph Ossai (ankle) on top of NT T'Vondre Sweat (knee, IR) and DT David Onyemata (groin, IR).

Week 9 Home Favorite Upgrades: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Packers & Kendre Miller vs. Browns

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Packers: Stevenson hasn't been generational this season (10.9 fantasy points per game, 579 yards, 3 TDs on 96 carries, 27 targets, 69 Utilization Score), but he has at least been functional. The Pats have the No. 2 HFA over the past 16 games (+8.54, per NFElo), and it's boosted against the Packers because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). The Packers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, but they're No. 27 in defensive rush SR (42.8%), and they're banged up in the front seven without EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP), DTs Javon Hargrave (Achilles, IR) and Jonathan Ford (calf, IR) and LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles, IR). The Pats should have a reasonably run-friendly game script as -2.5 home favorites.

Kendre Miller (Saints) vs. Browns: With No. 1 RB Travis Etienne (hamstring, IR) on the sideline, Miller has been the team's primary ballcarrier ahead of veteran Alvin Kamara since Week 5 (40% snap rate, 55% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share vs. 37%, 24%, 0%). His production hasn't excited (7.1 fantasy points per game, 128 yards, 1 TD on 38 carries, 7 targets), but this week he could get extended action off the bye as a -3 favorite at home, where the Saints have a boosted HFA because the Browns are outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). On top of that, this is the third road game in four weeks for the Browns, who are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (43.5%). I'd consider starting Miller in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 9 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Braelon Allen at Chiefs & Woody Marks at Chargers

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Braelon Allen (Jets) at Chiefs: This is just to say that, although the Jets are optimistic No. 1 RB Breece Hall (quad) will return in Week 9, they also hoped he'd play in Week 8, and he didn't. In fact, he last played in Week 3, and in his absence Allen has been a menace over the past five games (15.2 fantasy points per game, 574 yards, 2 TDs on 93 carries, 17 targets, 84 Utilization Score). Hall might miss one more game, or the Jets might limit him in Week 9 because he hasn't played in over a month or because they could want to keep him healthy in case they decide to trade him. It's less than ideal for Allen that the Chiefs are No. 4 in defensive rush SR (34.8%) and that the Jets are +9.5 road dogs, but Allen has the three-down skill set to survive any game script (82% rush share, 58% route rate since Week 4).

Woody Marks (Texans) at Chargers: No. 1 RB David Montgomery (groin) might return this week off the bye … but I'm skeptical, and Marks has been serviceable over the past two games in his stead (8.9 fantasy points per game, 162 yards, 0 TDs on 34 carries, 4 targets, 70% rush share, 56% route rate, 70 Utilization Score). Although the Texans are on the road, they're coming off an extended break and playing in an indoor stadium with turf. Marks could get extended action as a -5 favorite, and the Chargers are No. 27 in defensive rush DVOA (0.2%).

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.