Upgrades for Week 9 Quarterback Rankings: Brock Purdy Is Back

Let's get into the Week 9 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

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Week 9 Quarterback Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Joe Burrow	CIN	ATL
2	Josh Allen	BUF	MIN
3	Brock Purdy	SF	LV
4	Drake Maye	NE	GB
5	Jared Goff	DET	MIA
6	Trevor Lawrence	JAC	BAL
7	Dak Prescott	DAL	IND
8	Caleb Williams	CHI	TB
9	Matthew Stafford	LA	WAS
10	Jayden Daniels	WAS	LA
11	Jordan Love	GB	NE
12	Patrick Mahomes	KC	NYJ
13	Malik Willis	MIA	DET
14	Sam Darnold	SEA	ARI
15	Kirk Cousins	LV	SF
16	Tyler Shough	NO	CLE
17	Kyler Murray	MIN	BUF
18	Bo Nix	DEN	CAR
19	C.J. Stroud	HOU	LAC
20	Michael Penix	ATL	CIN

Week 9 Matchup Upgrades: Jared Goff at Dolphins & Malik Willis vs. Lions

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Dolphins and Lions are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.288)
Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.6)

Bang a gong.

Jared Goff (Lions) at Dolphins: There's a lot I actually don't like this week about Goff. He's outdoors, where he's had notable splits with the Lions (15.3 fantasy points per game, 7.7 AY/A vs. 18.0, 8.2 indoors). This is the second straight game for the Dolphins at home, where they have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, Goff has had modest production since the Week 6 bye (14.0 fantasy points per game, 479 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT), and he might be without C Cade Mays (ankle). But all of that probably won't matter … because he's playing the Dolphins.

Malik Willis (Dolphins) vs. Lions: As I just noted in the Jared Goff blurb, the Dolphins are in a favorable spot. Not only do they have a fully amplified HFA, but this will also be their fifth week out of the past seven not on the road. Since the Week 6 bye, Willis has played with promise (20.8 fantasy points per game, 419 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT with 9-39-1 rushing), and for the season he has been the No. 4 QB in designed rush share (9%) and scramble rate (9%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). On defense, the Lions could be without four starters in EDGE DJ Wonnum (concussion), LB Jack Campbell (neck), CB D.J. Reed (hip), and FS Brian Branch (concussion). I'd consider starting Willis in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 9 Scoring Upgrades: Brock Purdy vs. Raiders & Dak Prescott at Colts

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (30.5 points); the Cowboys, No. 2 (28.75).

Upgrades warranted.

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Raiders: I imagine the 49ers will be a popular survivor pick this week. They're favored against a non-divisional/conference opponent by more than TD at home off the bye. In fact, this will also be their sixth week out of the past eight not on the road, and the Raiders are on their second straight road game after playing on the East Coast last week. The 49ers will likely get some of their injured pass catchers back after the extended break, and the Raiders are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.0%). For the season, Purdy has played like an MVP (21.4 fantasy points per game, 1,748 yards passing, 15 TDs, 4 INTs with 32-161-1 rushing).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Colts: Prescott has suboptimal splits for his career on the road outside division (16.2 fantasy points per game, 6.8 AY/A vs. 20.3, 8.2 in all other games), and his performance over the past four games (17.7 fantasy points per game, 981 yards passing, 6 TDs, 4 INTs with 11-35-1 rushing) hasn't matched what we saw in Weeks 1-3 (21.4 points per game, 730 yards passing, 7 TDs, 1 INT with 10-59-0 rushing). But the Colts have lost four straight games, and in those losses they allowed 29.5 points per game. After trading away DT DeForest Buckner last week, they yielded 42 points to the Jaguars. The Colts are in full-on tear-it-down mode, which gives Prescott a chance at a bounceback performance.

Week 9 Indoors Upgrades: Joe Burrow vs. Falcons & C.J. Stroud at Chargers

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature and precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs. Falcons (in Madrid): Oh, baby. Burrow has been an assassin away from home (33-15-1 ATS, 31.1% ROI), outside division (40-18-2 ATS, 31.0% ROI) and indoors (7-1 ATS, 66.1% ROI, per Action Network). After a slow start in Weeks 1-2 (15.7 fantasy points per game, 461 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT with 6-19-0 rushing), Burrow has been great since Week 3 (28.9 fantasy points per game, 1,654 yards passing, 17 TDs, 5 INTs with 14-51-2 rushing) and utterly exceptional since the Week 6 bye (35.7 fantasy points per game, 754 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs with 5-22-1 rushing). Although they're getting back EDGE James Pearce from suspension this week, the Falcons could be without three starters in EDGE Samson Ebukam (hamstring), LB Divine Deablo (forearm) and CB Billy Bowman (hamstring).

C.J. Stroud (Texans) at Chargers: Stroud's first few games were rather mellow (15.1 fantasy points per game), but overall he's enjoying a bounceback season (64.8% completion rate, 8.3 AY/A), and his past four games have been legitimately great (21.1 fantasy points per game, 1,073 yards passing, 8 TDs, 1 INT with 11-26-1 rushing). Although the Texans are on the road, they're coming off the bye and playing in an indoor stadium with turf, and the Chargers could be without CBs Donte Jackson (hamstring), Deane Leonard (concussion), and Rodney Shelley (hamstring) on top of SS Derwin James (hamstring, IR).

Week 9 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Trevor Lawrence at Ravens & Bo Nix at Panthers

Here are a couple QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Ravens: Lawrence has played at an MVP level this season (65.7% completion rate, 9.3 AY/A), especially since the team's first European game in Week 5 (23.5 fantasy points per game, 847 yards passing, 9 TDs, 2 INTs with 9-46-0 rushing). HC Liam Coen has crushed as a favorite (10-4 ATS, 37.6% ROI), and the Ravens could be without CB Nate Wiggins (neck) and FS Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) in addition to EDGE Tavius Robinson (pectoral, IR).

Bo Nix (Broncos) at Panthers: The setup isn't great. The Broncos are traveling east for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, the Panthers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and they have a boosted HFA because they are outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). But with HC Sean Payton calling plays, Nix has been markedly better over the past two weeks (22.8 fantasy points per game, 444 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with 10-77-1 rushing), and the Panthers could be without EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and CB Will Lee (hamstring) on top of CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR), Mike Jackson (groin, IR) and Akayleb Evans (triceps, IR).

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.