Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For Week 16.

Week 16. Christmas.

Goodwill on Earth, and peace to all, etc., etc.

I’m cutting the introduction off here because I’m in a bit of a time crunch.

I need to figure out what gift I’m getting my wife and fast or I might not make it to Week 17.

Cheers to you and yours.

May the gifts you get be better than the ones you give -- let’s face it, you probably suck at giving gifts -- and may the pigskin powers grant you the greatest gift of all this holiday season: An unencumbered path to the next round of the fantasy playoffs. 

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 16

Here are my preliminary Week 16 favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …

• Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
• Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
• Must be added if they are on waivers.
• Possess underappreciated upside.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Appear in my DFS player pool.
• Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
• Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my eye with their player projections.
• Stand out in our player prop tool.

Some notes.

• Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday afternoon), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
   
• Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
   
• Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
   
• Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 9:30 pm ET on Tuesday, Dec. 19, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 QBs

Josh Allen (Bills) at Chargers

• Bills: -12.5
• O/U: 44
• TT: 28.25

Life has not been easy on Allen this year. He’s No. 2 in the league with 14 INTs, and he lost OC Ken Dorsey (dismissed) after Week 10.

And yet Allen has played good ball: He’s No. 3 in QBR (69.7, per ESPN) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.7 FPPG). If the Bills had even just one more win on their record, he would be a legitimate MVP candidate.

He’s still very much “Josh Allen.”

The Chargers are at home and have extra rest off Thursday Night Football, but they could be in disarray after the firing of defensive HC Brandon Staley and DL coach Jay Rodgers following an embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders last week in which the Chargers allowed Day 3 rookie QB Aidan O’Connell to pass for 248 yards and four TDs. 

The Chargers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.0 FPPG).

You can target Allen on Underdog Fantasy in Week 16 as well, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE!

Justin Fields (Bears) vs. Cardinals

• Bears: -4.5
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 24.5

Fields has not progressed as a passer (6.6 AY/A last year, 6.4 this year), and his sack rate continues to be egregiously high (10.6%), but he’s still an elite runner: Since returning in Week 11 from a thumb injury that forced him from Week 6 and sidelined him for Weeks 7-10, Fields has 49-251-1 rushing in four games.

And he was much better this past week than his raw numbers suggest.

With that kind of rushing workload and production, he has a high weekly floor -- and the Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.190).

Zach Wilson (Jets) vs. Commanders

• Jets: -3
• O/U: 37
• TT: 20

No. 1 QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR) is almost certain not to return this year with the Jets now eliminated from playoff contention, so Wilson (concussion) will draw another start if he’s able to clear the league’s protocol.

If not, we’ll probably see Trevor Siemian or maybe even Brett Rypien.

None of these guys is good -- but all of them might be good enough as desperado plays in 2QB/Superflex leagues against the Commanders, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.4).

The past five QBs to face the Commanders have all had top-10 fantasy finishes.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 RBs

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys

• Dolphins: -1.5
• O/U: 51
• TT: 26.25

Despite sharing significant work with explosive rookie RB De’Von Achane -- more on him in a bit -- the 31-year-old Mostert has dominated this season.

With 12-plus opportunities in every game this season, Mostert has an elevated floor, and with his high-end efficiency (4.9 yards per carry, 5.5 yards per target) and scoring prowess (league-high 20 TDs from scrimmage) he has a vaulted ceiling.

The Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (45.3%) and on back-to-back East Coast games.

Travis Etienne (Jaguars) at Buccaneers

• Jaguars: Pick’Em
• O/U: 43
• TT: 21.5

Etienne’s decline in usage is concerning. In the first eight weeks of the season, he had an 81% snap rate, 72% rush rate, and 64% route rate, but since the Week 9 bye those numbers have dropped to 66%, 62%, and 54% (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Unsurprisingly, his production has dipped since the bye: 399 yards and two TDs in six games. That’s not terrible, but it’s not ideal.

Still, the Jaguars could rely heavily on Etienne this week with QB Trevor Lawrence (concussion) uncertain to play.

The Buccaneers are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (43.4%) and could be without LB Devin White (foot).

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs. Panthers

• Falcons: -1.5
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 23

Robinson had a hilariously dreadful 14 yards on seven carries and three targets last week. In a vacuum, there’s nothing terrible with 1,124 yards and seven TDs in 14 games for a rookie. But Robinson’s season has been devastatingly disappointing.

Even so, he has 15-plus opportunities in all but two games this year: His injury impacted Week 7 … and last week. I think it’s reasonable to expect a bounceback performance for Robinson -- especially given all the heat HC Arthur Smith is getting.

The Colts are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (23.3).

Derrick Henry (Titans) vs. Seahawks

• Titans: +2.5
• O/U: 42
• TT: 19.75

The Titans are live to win as short home underdogs, and -- despite his subpar season (77.6 scrimmage yards per game) and what we saw out of him last week (10 yards, zero TDs on 20 opportunities) -- Henry has still done well this year in seven home starts (669 yards, seven TDs) and five victories (477 yards, six TDs).

At home, Henry has a decent chance to go off -- and HC Mike Vrabel as a dog at Nissan Stadium is 12-8 ATS (15.5% ROI) and 12-8 ML (53.2% ROI, per Action Network).

Henry is no longer the player he once was (125.7 scrimmage yards per game in 2019-22), but he has 12-plus opportunities in every game but one and could approach 20 touches in this spot.

The Seahawks are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.017).

Ezekiel Elliott (Patriots) at Broncos

• Patriots: +6.5
• O/U: 34.5
• TT: 14

Elliott disappointed last week, but I expect No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) to miss another game given that he didn’t practice at all last week. Hence, Zeke.

Since Week 13, when Stevenson exited with an injury after 17 snaps, Elliott has an 83% snap rate, 74% rush share, 66% route rate, and 24% target share, which he has leveraged into 278 yards and a TD on 50 carries and 19 targets.

The Broncos are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.3).

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys

• Dolphins: -1.5
• O/U: 51
• TT: 26.25

As I noted earlier in talking about Raheem Mostert, the Cowboys are terrible against the run: Last week they allowed the Bills to rush for 266 yards, and they could be without run-stuffing DT Johnathan Hankins (knee, ankle) for another game.

There might be room for multiple backs to go off against the Cowboys this week, and Achane certainly has the talent to maximize his opportunities. Since returning in Week 13 from a knee injury, Achane has 236 yards and two TDs on 33 carries and 16 targets in three games.

And in his six games with a snap rate of at least 35%, Achane has looked like the second coming of Chris Johnson with 70-607-7 rushing and 19-147-2 receiving on 26 targets. His talent is unreal.

Aaron Jones (Packers) at Panthers

• Packers: -4.5
• O/U: 36
• TT: 20.25

Jones returned to action last week from a knee injury that had sidelined him since Week 11, and he had a nice-ish 69 yards on 17 opportunities, a 50% snap rate, 76% rush share, and 32% route rate.

No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon (thumb) could miss another week, which gives Jones a good chance to replicate last week’s usage against the Panthers, who are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.017) and without LB Shaq Thompson (leg, IR).

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 WRs

A.J. Brown (Eagles) vs. Giants

• Eagles: -12 
• O/U: 42
• TT: 27

Ever since Brown made his displeasure known following his four-target, one-reception performance in Week 11, he has seen 45 targets.

His production hasn’t been elite with that usage (27-301-1 receiving), but as long as his volume holds the gaudy stat lines will eventually appear.

He’s No. 1 in the league with an 80.6% WOPR, and since joining the Eagles last year he has a robust 9.8 yards per target.

The Giants are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.4).

Stefon Diggs (Bills) at Chargers

• Bills: -12.5
• O/U: 44
• TT: 28.25

Since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller in Week 11, Diggs has just 18-173-1 receiving on 35 targets in four games.

In Weeks 1-10, Diggs had 73-868-7 receiving on 102 targets (with a two-point conversion) in 10 games.

Aug 20, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) runs with the ball after making a catch against the Denver Broncos during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The move to Brady has probably benefited the team, but not Diggs.

Still, this is a “keep the faith” matchup.

Last week the Chargers allowed 8-101-1 receiving on 12 targets to Davante Adams, and for the season they’re No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.5).

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) vs. Jaguars

• Buccaneers: Pick’Em
• O/U: 43
• TT: 21.5

Only two players this year have 1,000-plus yards and double-digit TDs receiving: Tyreek Hill -- and Evans.

In 2019, I made the case for why Evans will be in the Hall of Fame, and I stand by it now: With 10 straight seasons of 1,000 yards receiving to open his career, Evans has been one of the consistently best WRs of his era, and with 9.4 yards per target this year he’s still as explosive as ever.

The Jaguars could be without No. 1 CB Tyson Campbell (quad) and FS Andre Cisco (groin), both of whom were out last week.

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Cardinals

• Bears: -4.5
• O/U: 44.5
• TT: 24.5

Since QB Justin Fields returned to action in Week 11, Moore has 28-330-2 receiving on 40 targets and 3-20-1 rushing in four games. In total, he has 881 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in his nine full games with Fields.  

The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.8%).

DK Metcalf (Seahawks) at Titans

• Seahawks: -2.5
• O/U: 42
• TT: 22.25

Metcalf is a boom/bust player, but in nine games since the Week 5 bye he has 38-674-5 receiving on 76 targets. And he has been incredibly hot over the past six games with 28-488-5 receiving on 49 targets.

No. 1 QB Geno Smith (groin) should return to action this week, and the Titans are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.123) and SR (48.4%) and without CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring, IR).

Puka Nacua (Rams) vs. Saints

• Rams: -4
• O/U: 46.5
• TT: 25.25

Nacua is yet to have fewer than seven targets in any game this year, and -- with 1,163 yards receiving -- he has a shot to break Ja’Marr Chase’s rookie record (1,455).

Since the Week 10 bye, when QB Matthew Stafford returned from injury, Nacua has 386 yards and two TDs on 39 targets and six carries in five games.

With No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp finally looking healthy (16-226-2 receiving on 19 targets over the past two weeks), Nacua has a diminished ceiling, but he also has an inherently elevated floor and might benefit from not being the focal point of the pass defense.

The Saints are without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR) and FS Marcus Maye (shoulder, IR).

Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs. Commanders

• Jets: -3
• O/U: 37
• TT: 20

Without QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR), this has been something of a lost campaign for Wilson, but he’s still No. 2 in the league with a 45.8% air share, 32.1% target share, and 80.2% WOPR. 

The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.205).

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) at Buccaneers

• Jaguars: Pick’Em
• O/U: 43
• TT: 21.5

Since WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) exited Week 13 early, Ridley has garnered 33 targets in three games. His production has been putrid (13-118-0 receiving), but I’m expecting positive regression given the sheer volume he’s recently seen.

The Buccaneers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.1) and could be without CB Carlton Davis (groin), who missed last week.

Amari Cooper (Browns) at Texans

• Browns: -2
• O/U: 40
• TT: 21

Cooper exited Week 13 early with a concussion and rib injury, but he returned to action in Week 14, and in his two games since with QB Joe Flacco, he has a 98% route rate and 23% target rate, which he has leveraged into 11-186-1 receiving on 22 targets. 

Since joining the Browns last year, Cooper has 8.8 yards per target in HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense despite dealing with inconsistent and mediocre QB play. He’s still one of the league’s best WRs.

Given that the Texans play sides in their defensive backfield, Cooper is likely to match up most with CB Steven Nelson, who has allowed 9.8 yards per target this year (per PFF).

Tee Higgins (Bengals) at Steelers

• Bengals: -2
• O/U: 37
• TT: 19.5

No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) exited last week early, and in his absence, Higgins led the team with eight targets, which he turned into a game-winning 4-61-2 receiving.

I doubt Chase will play this Saturday given the truncated recovery window, so Higgins should continue to operate as the top pass-catching option in an offense that hasn’t fallen off despite the absence of QB Joe Burrow (wrist, IR).

In his one healthy game against the Steelers last year, Higgins had 9-148-0 receiving on a season-high 13 targets.

Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs. Lions

• Vikings: +3
• O/U: 47
• TT: 22

Addison has a limited ceiling with No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson back from his hamstring and rib injuries, but he’s a strong No. 2 option in his own right and can exploit the softer coverage Jefferson affords him.

In the four games in which Addison and Jefferson have both had a snap rate of at least 65%, Addison has 21-299-4 receiving on 28 targets, and his 9.0 yards per target for the season speaks to his playmaking skill set.

The Lions could be without CB Jerry Jacobs (hamstring), who exited Week 15 early.

Joshua Palmer (Chargers) vs. Bills

• Chargers: +12.5
• O/U: 44
• TT: 15.75

Without Keenan Allen (heel), Palmer last week functioned as the No. 1 WR for the Chargers, leading the unit in targets (albeit with only four) and the team in receiving production (113 yards, one TD).

Granted, much of that came when the game was out of hand -- but the Chargers are big underdogs and could have an extended stretch of garbage time this week.

Given that the season is all but over for the 5-9 Chargers, we might not see Allen in this game, so Palmer could once again be the No. 1 WR, and the Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR) and might also be without SS Micah Hyde (neck stinger), who missed last week.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 TEs

Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Bengals

• Jaguars: Pick’Em
• O/U: 43
• TT: 21.5

After scoring zero TDs in Weeks 1-12, Engram has hit paydirt thrice and added 205 yards on 27 targets in three games since Week 13, when WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) suffered a season-ending injury.

The Buccaneers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (10.7) and could be without SS Ryan Neal (hip), who missed last week.

David Njoku (Browns) at Texans

• Browns: -2
• O/U: 40
• TT: 21

Njoku hasn’t fully lived up to the first-round draft capital the Browns invested in him in 2017 -- but he has exhibited plenty of explosiveness (7.5 yards per target) since HC Kevin Stefanski joined the team in 2020, and since the Week 5 bye, he has been a key contributor with 53-566-5 receiving on 88 targets in 10 games.

And in his three games with QB Joe Flacco, Njoku has 18-212-3 receiving on 28 targets. Flacco has unlocked Njoku.

The Texans might be without SS Jimmie Ward (concussion), who exited Week 15 with an injury.

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) vs. Bengals

• Steelers: +2
• O/U: 37
• TT: 17.5

Freirmuth has done little (9-63-0 receiving on 16 targets) since Week 13 when backup Mitchell Trubisky entered the game as an injury fill-in for QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) -- but this week at least we’ll (hopefully) see something different (if not better) with the (temporary) elevation of No. 3 QB Mason Rudolph to the starting job.

But regardless of the QB situation, it’s unlikely that Freiermuth will do worse than he has done recently -- and he might do better: He had 9-120-0 receiving on 11 targets in Week 11 against the Bengals who are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.1) following the offseason departure of SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates. 

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)