RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 5 Fantasy Football: Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Falcons and Vikings are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

• Falcons: No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.307)
• Seahawks: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-4.9)

Here be dragons.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) at Falcons: I love Henry. In each of the three previous weeks, I featured him as a favorite, and this season he's having another of his typical awesome campaigns (21.8 fantasy points per game, 418 yards, 7 TDs on 89 carries, 7 targets). But this week we have cause for caution. On the one hand, QB Lamar Jackson is usually his best on the road (35-22 ATS, 19.0% ROI, per Action Network), and the Ravens have a one-day rest-and-preparation edge over the Falcons, who are coming off Monday Night Football. On the other hand, Jackson (ankle) is uncertain with an injury, LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) and Cs Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle, IR) and Ethan Pocic (knee, IR) are out, and the Ravens are yielding a maximized home-field advantage to the Falcons because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). This could end up being one of Henry's occasional 60-yard, no-TD duds.

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Vikings: Last week, without erstwhile No. 1 RB Travis Etienne (hamstring, IR), Kamara looked (a little) like his former self (20.3 points, 58 yards, 2 TDs on 7 carries, 7 targets, 72 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). I would expect him to be the clear leader in the Saints backfield again this week, and there's a lot to like about his setup: The Saints are on their third straight home game whereas the Vikings are playing their third road game in four weeks. But the Saints have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and they're down LT Kelvin Banks (ankle, IR) while facing the defense that has dragged the Vikings to a 4-0 record and is No. 1 in scoring (12.8 points per game). I wouldn't feel comfortable starting Kamara in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Week 5 Scoring Downgrades In My RB Rankings: Christian McCaffrey at Seahawks & Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week the 49ers are No. 16 in implied team total (22.0 points), and the Eagles are No. 28 (18.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) at Seahawks: McCaffrey hasn't been quite the usage all-star this year that he was last year (98 Utilization Score vs. 87), and that's reflected in his good (but not great) production (16.5 fantasy points per game, 340 yards, 4 TDs on 50 carries, 22 targets). So expectations should probably be adjusted down for McCaffrey anyway … and then there's the matchup against the Seahawks, who are No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA (-37.5%) and last year largely held McCaffrey in check across their three games (273 yards, 0 TDs on 41 carries, 23 targets). I tend not to like road underdog RBs, and I don't love that QB Brock Purdy has underwhelmed previously as a dog (2-5 ATS, -45.3% ROI). The Seahawks could be without DT Leonard Williams (ankle), but I doubt that will be enough to make a meaningful difference in McCaffrey's outlook.

Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Jaguars (in London): The Eagles are 2-2, but they're one of the fakest teams in football. They have a negative point differential (-18) and a horrendous market record (0-4 ATS, -100% ROI). This is the kind of thing that can happen when you have your … counting … seventh offensive playcaller in seven years. On top of that, this offseason the Eagles fired longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland and brought in OC Sean Mannion, who had no play-calling experience and just two years as a coach. And now Barkley (hamstring) is dealing with an injury, C/LG Cam Jurgens (concussion) and RT Lane Johnson (personal) are uncertain, and LG Landon Dickerson (knee, IR) is out. Even if Barkley plays, he's nowhere near his best right now (5.3 fantasy points per game, 190 yards, 0 TDs on 36 carries, 7 targets, 39 Utilization Score), and change-of-pace RB Will Shipley seems likely to get more action against the Jags, who have a theoretical travel edge in that they play in London often and are No. 2 in defensive rush DVOA (-32.7%).

Road Dog Downgrades In My Week 5 RB Rankings: James Cook at Rams & Ashton Jeanty at Patriots

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

James Cook (Bills) at Rams: On the surface, Cook is having a good season (15.9 fantasy points per game, 445 yards, 3 TDs on 70 carries, 10 targets), but if we dig deeper, we see that he's basically a lesser version of Derrick Henry … because in his two games this year with pass-catching specialist RB Ty Johnson, he has done almost nothing as a receiver (three targets), and he doesn't have a strong role inside the five-yard line (44% goal-line rush share). All of that makes him a risky option when he's a road dog … and the matchup is tough anyway against the Rams, who are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (13.1). On top of that, the Bills are traveling across the country for a primetime game well outside their standard 1 pm ET kickoff window, and the Rams have a fully boosted home-field advantage against the Bills, who are outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) at Patriots: The setup isn't great for the Raiders, who are playing their third road game in four weeks and traveling East for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. On top of that, the Pats have an amplified home-field advantage against the Raiders, who are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and outdoors (vs. indoors). But really … this blurb is mainly about the fact that I don't think Jeanty is that good. His production is fine (16.1 fantasy points per game, 429 yards, 2 TDs on 78 carries, 24 targets), but it's not as good as one might expect given his usage (75% snap rate, 72% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 63% route rate, 97 Utilization Score), and it's only as good as it is because the Raiders have been way better than expected (No. 8 with 28.8 points per game). But whereas the offense might regress, Jeanty's inefficiency seems sadly real (3.6 yards per carry, 5.3 yards per target for career). The Pats might be without DT Christian Barmore (shoulder), but they're still favored at home by more than a field goal: They have a chance to give Jeanty an uninspiring 60-yard, no-TD flop.

Week 5 RB Rankings - Offensive Injury Downgrades: Bucky Irving at Cowboys & Jeremiyah Love vs. Lions

Here are a couple RBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) at Cowboys: QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out once again, and in his absence last week backup undrafted rookie dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels gave Irving … checks notes … zero targets. Also, since change-of-pace No. 3 RB Sean Tucker returned to action in Week 3, he (and not Irving) has had a … checks notes … 100% goal-line rush share. Irving has essentially been reduced to a between-the-20s runner without Mayfield (6.1 points, 61 yards, 0 TDs on 16 carries, 0 targets, 49 Utilization Score in Week 4), and that's pretty unattractive as a +9.5 dog on the in Dallas, where the Cowboys have a boosted advantage because the Bucs are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs. Lions: This is the fourth time this year I've highlighted Love as a fantasy fade. So far, no regrets (10.9 fantasy points per game, 259 yards, 2 TDs on 55 carries, 13 targets, 64 Utilization Score). Not only is he still splitting too much of the work with No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier (50 Utilization Score), but Love (ankle) is now also dealing with an injury, and his OL situation is subpar: LT Paris Johnson Jr. (biceps) is out, and RG Isaiah Adams (ankle) and RT Jonah Williams (shoulder) are uncertain. His setup is good: The Lions are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (2.6%), on their third away game in four weeks, and disadvantaged on the road because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). But given his light workload and ravaged OL, the overall situation is suspect.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)