QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 5 Fantasy Football: Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Titans are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.177) and SR (33.8%)
• Titans: No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs (13.8)

Here be dragons.

Tyler Shough (Saints) vs. Vikings: One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Shough has more than lived up to the expectations I had for him entering the season (22.1 fantasy points per game, 1,203 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs with 16-72-1 rushing). Especially encouraging has been Shough's role as a runner (No. 5 with a 9% designed rush share, No. 3 with a 40% goal-line rush share, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And there's a lot to like about his setup: The Saints are on their third straight home game, whereas the Vikings are playing their third road game in four weeks. But the Saints have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and they're down three starters in LT Kelvin Banks (ankle, IR), RB Travis Etienne (hamstring, IR), and WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring, IR). And then there's the matchup against the defense that has dragged the Vikings to a 4-0 record and is No. 1 in scoring (12.8 points per game). This week, I doubt Shough will foughck.

C.J. Stroud (Texans) at Titans: Last week Stroud had one of the best performances of his career (23.1 fantasy points, 347 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 2-12-0 rushing), and the 0-4 Titans feel fake on defense given that most teams don't need to pass heavily against them to win, which the data suggests: The Titans are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (35.7%). And they have a minimal home-field advantage against the 0-4 Texans, who play in the division and on a similar turf surface. But outside of his game against the putrid Cowboys, Stroud has had only modest success (60.0% completion rate, 7.1 AY/A), and when winless teams face off, the underdog tends to outperform (78-48-5 ATS, 19.0% ROI, per Action Network). I mean, who are the Texans to be -7 against any team? And even if they do cover, I doubt Stroud will play a big role in their achievement. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Week 5 Scoring Downgrades In My QB Rankings: Brock Purdy at Seahawks & Jalen Hurts vs. Jaguars

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week the 49ers are No. 16 in implied team total (22.0 points), and the Eagles are No. 28 (18.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Brock Purdy (49ers) at Seahawks: I highlighted Purdy as a fantasy fade last week, and I wasn't especially right (19.6 fantasy points, 218 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 10-29-0 rushing). And for the season, he has been elite (25.4 fantasy points per game, 1,007 yards passing, 11 TDs, 1 INT with 20-122-1 rushing). But Purdy has underwhelmed previously as an underdog (2-5 ATS, -45.3% ROI), and the Seahawks are No. 5 in defensive dropback SR (42.1%). Plus, in three games last year against the Seahawks, Purdy acquitted himself poorly (544 yards passing, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 4.5 AY/A).

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Jaguars (in London): The Eagles are 2-2, but they're one of the fakest teams in football. They have a negative point differential (-18) and a horrendous market record (0-4 ATS, -100% ROI). In my opinion, it all starts with Hurts, who hasn't been terrible this year (17.5 fantasy points per game, 713 yards passing, 7 TDs, 3 INTs with 21-105-1 rushing) but also hasn't been anything close to a top-tier QB. And in all fairness to him, this is the kind of thing that can happen when you have your … counting … seventh offensive playcaller in seven years. On top of that, this offseason the Eagles fired longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland and brought in OC Sean Mannion, who had no play-calling experience and just two years as a coach. And now Hurts could be without five starters: RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring), WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), TE Dallas Goedert (knee), RT Lane Johnson (personal), and LG Landon Dickerson (knee, IR). The Jags could be without two secondary starters in CB Montaric Brown (hamstring) and FS Eric Murray (concussion) … but I'm skeptical that will even matter.

Situational Downgrades In Week 5's Quarterback Rankings: Lamar Jackson at Falcons & Jordan Love vs. Bears 

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Falcons: There's a reason I had him as one of my 2026 fantasy fades and boldly predicted that the Ravens will miss the playoffs before the season started. Jackson (ankle) has been awesome (70.8% completion rate, 10.9 AY/A), but he has missed 4+ games in three of the past five years, and now, although it's just Week 5, he's "week to week" with another injury. Even if he plays, he could be limited … as he was in the second half of last season. LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) is out, and the team is without Cs Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle, IR) and Ethan Pocic (knee, IR). Jackson is usually his best on the road (35-22 ATS, 19.0% ROI), but in this spot the Ravens are yielding a maximized home-field advantage to the Falcons because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). And it doesn't help Jackson that the Falcons are No. 3 in defensive dropback SR (40.7%).

Jordan Love (Packers) vs. Bears: For the second straight week, Love is a fade. He hasn't looked great this year (16.9 fantasy points per game, 1,041 yards passing, 8 TDs, 3 INTs with -8 yards rushing), and the Packers offense could be without five starters: RB Josh Jacobs (Commissioner Exempt List), WR Jayden Reed (neck, IR), LG Aaron Banks (toe), RG Jacob Monk (undisclosed), and RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee, IR). On top of that, the Bears are No. 2 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.096), and they've cut home-field advantage for the Packers down to the core because they're playing in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium.

Week 5 QB Rankings - Offensive Injury Downgrades: Joe Burrow at Dolphins & Daniel Jones at Steelers 

Here are a couple QBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) at Dolphins: I hate being down on Burrow. He has been solidly unspectacular to open the year (19.9 fantasy points per game, 1,171 yards passing, 7 TDs, 3 INTs with 11-38-1 rushing), but this week profiles as a perfect "go off spot" against the Dolphins, who are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (33.9%). On top of that, Burrow's on the advantageous side of his splits: On the road, he dominates (31-15 ATS, 29.1% ROI). Outside division, Burrow devastates (40-17-1 ATS, 33.8% ROI). And on the road outside division … he decimates (23-7 ATS, 46.8% ROI). It's perfect … except for the fact that he could be without WRs Ja'Marr Chase (concussion), Tee Higgins (groin), Colbie Young (knee), and Andrei Iosivas (thumb, IR).

Daniel Jones (Colts) at Steelers: Last week I had Jones as a fantasy favorite because of an advantageous matchup. Never again. Jones has been straight-up bad this season in terms of both overall production (10.1 fantasy points per game, 754 yards passing, 3 TDs, 4 INTs with 11-21-1 rushing) and per-attempt efficiency (63.6% completion rate, 4.8 AY/A). Now the Colts are playing their third away game in four weeks … coming off the London game (3,717 miles this week). That's brutal … and it gets worse: They have a three-day rest deficit relative to the Steelers, who have a boosted home-field advantage because the Colts are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). And then … Jones has to deal with injuries to WRs Alec Pierce (heel, IR) and Keenan Allen (groin). Unreal.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)