WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 5 Fantasy Football: George Pickens, Mike Evans & More

Let's get into the Week 5 WR rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 5 favorites and fades.

WR Rankings For Week 5 Fantasy Football (Top 36)

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Rank	Player
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2	Puka Nacua
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown
4	Zay Flowers
5	Drake London
6	CeeDee Lamb
7	Nico Collins
8	Malik Nabers
9	Michael Wilson
10	Chris Olave
11	Garrett Wilson
12	Christian Watson
13	Davante Adams
14	Parker Washington
15	George Pickens
16	Matthew Golden
17	Jaylen Waddle
18	Jameson Williams
19	DK Metcalf
20	Luther Burden
21	Jordan Addison
22	Josh Downs
23	Mike Evans
24	Carnell Tate
25	Stefon Diggs
26	Deebo Samuel
27	Romeo Doubs
28	Devaughn Vele
29	Denzel Boston
30	Rome Odunze
31	Dontayvion Wicks
32	Malik Washington
33	Tre Tucker
34	Emeka Egbuka
35	Kalif Raymond
36	KC Concepcion

Week 5 Matchup Downgrades In My WR Rankings: Chris Olave vs. Vikings & George Pickens vs. Buccaneers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Chiefs are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.177)
Buccaneers: No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-6.8)

Here be dragons.

Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Vikings: I hate the idea of fading Olave. He's one of my favorite players, and he has been great this year (18.2 fantasy points per game, 35-491-1 receiving, 48 targets, 95 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And there's a lot to like about his setup: The Saints are on their third straight home game, whereas the Vikings are playing their third road game in four weeks. But the Saints have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and they're down LT Kelvin Banks (ankle, IR). That's just not ideal given that the Vikings are No. 1 in defensive scoring (12.8 points per game) and No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (-28.6%).

George Pickens (Cowboys) vs. Buccaneers: This is my second straight week highlighting Pickens as a fantasy fade. Given that he's yet to hit 100 yards or score a TD in any game, I have no regrets. The Cowboys have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (11,873 miles), and outside division, QB Dak Prescott has underperformed (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI, per Action Network). He's indoors at home, where the Cowboys have a boosted advantage against the Bucs, who are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But the Bucs are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (-53.2%). I don't see this as the spot where Pickens has a peak performance.

Scoring Downgrades In My Week 5 WR Ranks: Mike Evans at Seahawks & Luther Burden at Packers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week the Bears are No. 16 in implied team total (23.25 points), and the 49ers are No. 18 (22.0).

Downgrades warranted.

Mike Evans (49ers) at Seahawks: Evans has been modestly mediocre in his four-game tenure with the 49ers (10.5 fantasy points per game, 17-213-2 receiving, 24 targets, 64 Utilization Score). Even without WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR), Christian Kirk (calf, IR), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR), and Demarcus Robinson (ankle, IR) and TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR) for most of the season, he has failed to dominate within the 49ers offense (38% air yard share, 33% end-zone target share). And then there are the circumstances: The Seahawks are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (17.4), and QB Brock Purdy has underwhelmed previously as an underdog (2-5 ATS, -45.3% ROI).

Luther Burden (Bears) at Packers: This is my … counting … first, second, third, fourth, fifth! This is my fifth week in a row to feature Burden as a fantasy fade! At this point, is it a bit? Maybe. But let me ask you this: At any point this season, has Burden actually made a positive difference to your lineup? Has he actually helped you win a matchup? Maybe … but probably not. For the season, he has been an utter disappointment given the hype he had in the offseason (9.4 fantasy points per game, 19-219-1 receiving, 29 targets, 64 Utilization Score with 3-20-0 rushing). The Bears have cut home-field advantage for the Packers down to the core because they're playing in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and even without QB Caleb Williams (hamstring), the offense has averaged 25.0 points over the past two games. Still, it's a net negative that the Bears won't have Williams and LT Braxton Jones (knee, IR) available this week.

WR Offensive Injury Downgrades In The Week 5 Rankings: Zay Flowers at Falcons & Emeka Egbuka at Cowboys

Here are a couple WRs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) at Falcons: Flowers has been one of the league's most dynamic playmakers this year (19.4 fantasy points per game, 18-352-2 receiving, 22 targets, 82 Utilization Score with 1-20-0 rushing). But QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) is uncertain, and even if he plays, he could be a limited version of himself, as he was last season in the second half. On top of that, LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) and Cs Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle, IR) and Ethan Pocic (knee, IR) are out. Jackson is usually his best on the road (35-22 ATS, 19.0% ROI), but in this spot that might not matter given that the Ravens are yielding a maximized home-field advantage to the Falcons because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Finally, the Falcons are No. 3 in defensive dropback SR (40.7%).

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) at Cowboys: Egbuka is yet to have even 9.0 fantasy points in a game this year, and last week, without QB Baker Mayfield (thumb), Egbuka had absolutely pathetic production (2.3 points, 2-13-0 receiving, 4 targets) and a hilariously terrible Utilization Score (39) despite having strong underlying usage (94% route rate, 26% air yard share, 100% end-zone target share). The Cowboys are terrible: They're No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.412), dropback SR (59.2%), and pass DVOA (50.8%). Still, the Cowboys have a boosted home-field advantage because the Bucs are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and there's only so much enthusiasm a human can muster for a WR when the guy throwing to him is undrafted rookie dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels. As long as Mayfield is out, all his pass catchers need to be deprioritized. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting Egbuka in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.