TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 5 Fantasy Football: George Kittle & More

Let's get into the Week 5 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 5 favorites and fades.

Tight End Rankings For Week 5 (Top 15)

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Rank	Player
1	Trey McBride
2	Brock Bowers
3	Sam LaPorta
4	George Kittle
5	Tyler Warren
6	Dalton Kincaid
7	Isaiah Likely
8	Tucker Kraft
9	Colston Loveland
10	Juwan Johnson
11	Mark Andrews
12	Harold Fannin
13	Mike Gesicki
14	T.J. Hockenson
15	Hunter Henry

Matchup Downgrade In The Week 5 TE Rankings: Brock Bowers at Patriots & Dalton Kincaid at Rams

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Patriots and Rams are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

Patriots: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-6.1)
Rams: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-65.2%)

Here be dragons.

Brock Bowers (Raiders) at Patriots: It's not as if you're benching Bowers in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week. While he missed Weeks 1-2 to injury, he has been amazing since returning in Week 3 (20.1 fantasy points per game, 16-202-2 receiving, 24 targets, 100 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). He's the heart of the Raiders offense … but let's be real: The Raiders offense is not as good as its numbers (No. 8 with 28.8 points per game). Regression will hit soon. Why not this week? The setup isn't great for the Raiders, who are playing their third road game in four weeks and traveling East for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. On top of that, the Pats have an amplified home-field advantage against the Raiders, who are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and outdoors (vs. indoors).

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) at Rams: In Weeks 1-2, Kincaid was electric (17.5 fantasy points per game, 12-225-1 receiving, 14 targets, 69% route rate, 92 Utilization Score). In Weeks 3-4, he was a dumpster fire (2.0 points per game, 3-45-0 receiving, 5 targets, 61% route rate, 40 Utilization Score). Which one is the real Kincaid? Both are. In any given game, he can boom with the best or bust with the worst of them. Given the tough matchup, this feels like a bust game. Plus, the Bills are traveling across the country for a primetime game well outside their standard 1 pm ET kickoff window, and the Rams have a fully boosted home-field advantage against the Bills, who are outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Week 5 Scoring Downgrade In The TE Ranks: George Kittle at Seahawks & Juwan Johnson vs. Vikings

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the TEs."

This week the 49ers are No. 18 in implied team total (22.0 points), and the Saints are No. 22 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

George Kittle (49ers) at Seahawks: Since Week 2, in his three games without WR De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle, IR) and No. 2 TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR), Kittle has been perhaps the best player at the position (18.1 fantasy points per game, 14-232-4 receiving, 17 targets, 87 Utilization Score). But the matchup is tough: The Seahawks are No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-32.1%), and in his one full game against them last year, he had little success (5-29-0 receiving, 7 targets). Plus, QB Brock Purdy has underwhelmed previously as an underdog (2-5 ATS, -45.3% ROI, per Action Network).

Juwan Johnson (Saints) vs. Vikings: In the absence of No. 2 WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring, IR), Johnson has been consistent with 8+ fantasy points in every game this year, and he has the usage to support that production (73% route rate, 16% target share, 12% air yard share, 36% end-zone target share, 81 Utilization Score). And there's a lot to like about his setup: The Saints are on their third straight home game, whereas the Vikings are playing their third road game in four weeks. But the Saints have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football, and the Vikings are No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (6.3).

Offensive Injury Downgrades In My Week 5 TE Rankings: Colston Loveland at Packers & Mark Andrews at Falcons

Here are a couple TEs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Colston Loveland (Bears) at Packers: This is my third straight week highlighting Loveland as a fantasy fade. He has been truly and hilariously abysmal this year (3.7 fantasy points per game, 11-91-0 receiving, 18 targets, 57 Utilization Score). The Bears have cut home-field advantage for the Packers down to the core because they're playing in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and even without QB Caleb Williams (hamstring), the offense has averaged 25.0 points over the past two games. Still, it's a net negative that the Bears won't have Williams and LT Braxton Jones (knee, IR) available this week, and I can't imagine putting Loveland into a lineup of mine with anything less than perfect circumstances.

Mark Andrews (Ravens) at Falcons: Andrews has had lackluster production this year (7.5 fantasy points per game, 18-149-1 receiving, 24 targets), and now QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) is uncertain. Even if he plays, he could be a limited version of himself, as he was last season in the second half. On top of that, LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) and Cs Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle, IR) and Ethan Pocic (knee, IR) are out. Jackson is usually his best on the road (35-22 ATS, 19.0% ROI), but in this spot that might not matter given that the Ravens are yielding a maximized home-field advantage to the Falcons because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.