Upgrades For Week 5 Tight End Rankings: Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee & More

Let's get into the Week 5 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 5 favorites and fades.

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Week 5 Tight End Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Trey McBride
2	Brock Bowers
3	Sam LaPorta
4	George Kittle
5	Tyler Warren
6	Isaiah Likely
7	Dalton Kincaid
8	Tucker Kraft
9	Colston Loveland
10	Juwan Johnson
11	Mark Andrews
12	Harold Fannin
13	Mike Gesicki
14	T.J. Hockenson
15	Hunter Henry
16	Tyler Higbee

Week 5 Matchup Upgrades: Trey McBride vs. Lions & Mike Gesicki at Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TE.

Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+9.0)
Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (44.4%)

Bang a gong.

Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs. Lions: This blurb is pretty simple. On one side, you have McBride (13.2 fantasy points per game, 33-242-2 receiving, 46 targets, 97 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). On the other side, you have the Lions, who are on their third away game in four weeks and have an enhanced road disadvantage because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). Additionally, they're without SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR). That's the blurb.

Mike Gesicki (Bengals) at Dolphins: In three games this year, Gesicki has had 10+ fantasy points. I mean, OK, sure, in the fourth game, he had zero points. But let's be positive! Both WRs Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin) suffered injuries last week, and if they're out this week then Gesicki could be the top pass catcher against the Dolphins, who could be without FS Dante Trader (knee). But perhaps most importantly, QB Joe Burrow is on the advantageous side of his splits: On the road, he dominates (31-15 ATS, 29.1% ROI). Outside the division, he devastates (40-17-1 ATS, 33.8% ROI). And on the road outside the division … he decimates (23-7 ATS, 46.8% ROI). Gesicki could be the primary beneficiary of the onslaught.

Week 5 Scoring Upgrades: Sam LaPorta at Cardinals & Jake Ferguson vs. Buccaneers

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."

This week, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (29.5 points); the Cowboys, No. 3 (28.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) at Cardinals: LaPorta has been up and down this year, primarily because he's competing for targets with WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Even so, his overall numbers look good (11.5 fantasy points per game, 22-228-2 receiving, 32 targets, 83 Utilization Score). The Lions are on their third away game in four weeks and have a road disadvantage because they're outside the division and on grass (vs. turf). That's true … but what matters most for them is this: QB Jared Goff is indoors, where he tends to shine (48-28-2 ATS, 20.6% ROI, per Action Network). And it doesn't hurt that Goff throughout his career has owned the Cards (8-1 ATS, 67.6% ROI), who could be without FS Andrew Wingard (knee) and No. 3 S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (back).

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs. Buccaneers: Ferguson scares me. He has three games with fewer than 8.0 fantasy points and one game with more than 18.0. The dude doesn't have more than 5 targets in any game this season. Sadness is his receiving yardage (83). Despondency is his inefficiency (5.5 yards per target). Pretty much all he has going for him is his 3 TDs, and let's be honest … that's not a big number, and it's likely not sustainable given his usage (70% route rate, 11% target share, 7% air yard share, 20% end zone target share, 57 Utilization Score). The setup isn't perfect for Ferguson: The Cowboys have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (11,873 miles), and outside division, QB Dak Prescott has underperformed (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI). Still, the Bucs are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (27.1%), they could be without LBs Josiah Trotter (knee) and SirVocea Dennis (ankle) and FS Antoine Winfield (ribs), and they have a marked road disadvantage because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Maybe Ferguson can fall into the end zone while holding the football this week.

Week 5 Offensive Injury Upgrades: T.J. Hockenson at Saints & Tyler Higbee vs. Bills

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) at Saints: No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) exited Week 3 with an injury, and without him in Week 4, Hockenson went off (18.4 fantasy points, 13-119-0 receiving, 13 targets, 98 Utilization Score). QB Kyler Murray has generally done well on the road (28-13-2 ATS, 30.8% ROI), and the Vikings have a one-day rest-and-prep edge over the Saints, who could be without LB Kaden Elliss (calf).

Tyler Higbee (Rams) vs. Bills: TEs Terrance Ferguson (ankle, IR) and Colby Parkinson (shoulder) both exited Week 3 early with injuries, and in their absence Higbee over the past two games has been very productive (12.7 fantasy points per game, 13-129-1 receiving, 17 targets) and heavily used (77% route rate, 85 Utilization Score). I expect that to continue this week against the Bills, who are traveling across the country for a primetime game well outside their standard 1 pm ET kickoff window and granting a fully boosted home-field advantage to the Rams because they're outside the division and conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Week 5 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Isaiah Likely at Commanders & Brenton Strange vs. Eagles

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Isaiah Likely (Giants) at Commanders: Likely is yet to replicate the triumph of his Week 1 breakout (23.8 fantasy points, 8-78-2 receiving, 8 targets), but his overall numbers are still good enough (10.5 fantasy points per game, 22-190-2 receiving, 35 targets, 86 Utilization Score), and last week he showed some chemistry with backup-turned-starting QB Jameis Winston (10.1 points, 7-66-0 receiving, 12 targets). The Commanders have a notable travel disadvantage coming off the London game (3,659 miles this week), and Giants HC John Harbaugh has been strong as a visitor throughout his career (90-65-6 ATS, 13.0% ROI). In the secondary, the Commanders could be without S/CB Nick Cross (illness) and SS Jeremy Reaves (finger).

Brenton Strange (Jaguars) vs. Eagles (in London): Strange lacks eye-popping production (7.4 fantasy points per game), but he's explosive (9.1 yards per target since last year), and he's actually the team's No. 2 pass catcher in receiving yards (167), receptions (14) and targets (18). The Eagles are No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.9), but they could be without LB Zack Baun (concussion) and SS Marcus Epps (groin), and the Jags have a theoretical travel edge because they play in London often.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.