Upgrades For Week 9 Tight End Rankings: Sam LaPorta & More

Let's get into the Week 9 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

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Week 9 Tight End Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Brock Bowers	LV	SF
2	George Kittle	SF	LV
3	Trey McBride	ARI	SEA
4	Colston Loveland	CHI	TB
5	Sam LaPorta	DET	MIA
6	Harold Fannin	CLE	NO
7	Isaiah Likely	NYG	PHI
8	Tucker Kraft	GB	NE
9	Tyler Warren	IND	DAL
10	Travis Kelce	KC	NYJ
11	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	BUF
12	Dallas Goedert	PHI	NYG
13	Mike Gesicki	CIN	ATL
14	Kyle Pitts	ATL	CIN
15	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	MIN

Week 9 Matchup Upgrades: Greg Dulcich vs. Lions & Davis Allen at Commanders

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Commanders are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TEs.

Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+10.2)
Commanders: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (45.7%)

Bang a gong.

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins) vs. Lions: After a slow start in Weeks 1-2 (2.8 fantasy points per game, 4-35-0 receiving, 5 targets), Dulcich has been more productive in his five games since (6.6 fantasy points per game, 18-221-0 receiving, 23 targets), especially in two since the Week 6 bye in terms of production (8.7 fantasy points per game, 9-129-0 receiving, 11 targets) and usage (71% route rate, 23% air yard share, 75 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). For his career, he has been better as an underdog (6.2 fantasy points per game, 40.8 yards, 0.10 TDs vs. 4.6, 24.9, 0.14 otherwise). This is the second straight game for the Dolphins at home, where they have a fully amplified HFA against the Lions because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). As for the Lions, LB Jack Campbell (neck) is doubtful, and FS Brian Branch (concussion) is uncertain.

Davis Allen (Rams) at Commanders: Allen is a deep-league desperado dart throw. Without WR Davante Adams (hamstring, IR) over the past two weeks, the team has leaned heavier into big personnel packages, and yet No. 1 TE Tyler Higbee has done almost nothing in that span (2.2 fantasy points per game, 3-28-0 receiving, 5 targets) despite seeing an uptick in usage (64% route rate). Allen, though, has been productive over the past two weeks (8.9 fantasy points per game, 6-28-2 receiving, 7 targets, 52 Utilization Score), in large part because he seems to have inherited Adams' vacated red-zone role (100% end-zone target share). His setup isn't ideal: For the Commanders, this is their second straight game at home and their fifth week out of seven not on the road. On top of that, they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors), and the Rams are traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. But with TEs Colby Parkinson (ribs) and Terrance Ferguson (ankle, IR) uncertain, Allen could have a bigger role than usual.

Week 9 Scoring Upgrades: Sam LaPorta at Dolphins & AJ Barner vs. Cardinals

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."

This week, the Lions are No. 3 in implied team total (28.25 points); the Seahawks, No. 4 (28.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) at Dolphins: Last week I highlighted LaPorta as a fantasy fade, and he duly disappointed (5.0 fantasy points, 3-33-0 receiving, 5 targets). He has struggled in both games since the Week 6 bye (3.7 fantasy points per game, 4-51-0 receiving, 7 targets), but for the season his usage is still good (84% route rate, 75 Utilization Score), and for his career he has been a better scorer as a big favorite (10.9 fantasy points per game, 44.7 yards, 0.67 TDs vs. 9.9, 52.9, 0.38 otherwise). This is the second straight game for the Dolphins at home, where they have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors), and the Lions might be without C Cade Mays (ankle). But all of that probably won't matter … because they're playing the Dolphins.

AJ Barner (Seahawks) vs. Cardinals: Barner hasn't produced much this season (4.7 fantasy points per game, 21-203-0 receiving, 34 targets with 4-5-1 rushing), but he's a near every-down player (80% route rate), and over the past two weeks without No. 2 TE Elijah Arroyo (shoulder, IR), his usage has ticked up (85% route rate, 15% target share). The Cardinals are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (21.4%), and the Seahawks should have plenty of scoring opportunities as -11.5 home favorites.

Week 9 Injury Upgrades: Eli Raridon vs. Packers & Brenton Strange at Ravens

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Eli Raridon (Patriots) vs. Packers: With TE Hunter Henry (foot) exiting early in Week 8, Raridon took on a bigger role (74% route rate, 17% target share), and although he did little with his opportunity (1.0 fantasy points, 1-5-0 receiving, 4 targets), he showed his upside a week earlier (13.1 fantasy points, 3-56-1 receiving, 4 targets). Henry could be out in Week 9, as could No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle), in addition to WRs Romeo Doubs (shoulder, IR) and Mack Hollins (calf, IR), so Raridon could be one of QB Drake Maye's primary targets. The Packers are No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (7.0), and they have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, but the Pats have the No. 2 HFA over the past 16 games (+8.54, per NFElo), and it's boosted against the Packers because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Plus, the Packers are without LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles, IR).

Brenton Strange (Jaguars) at Ravens: Strange had a quiet game in a 42-7 blowout last week (6.5 fantasy points, 2-55-0 receiving, 2 targets, 39% route rate), but in the three games before the Week 7 bye he was a steady producer (10.1 fantasy points per game, 19-207-0 receiving, 23 targets, 72% route rate, 84 Utilization Score). The Jags are -9 favorites, and for his career Strange has been better as a big favorite (8.7 fantasy points per game, 44.8 yards, 0.40 TDs vs. 6.3, 37.9, 0.14 otherwise). HC Liam Coen has crushed as a favorite (10-4 ATS, 37.6% ROI, per Action Network), and the Ravens could be without LB Roquan Smith (foot) and FS Jaylinn Hawkins (knee). I'd probably be willing to start Strange in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.