I tracked Taylor’s flight all night…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Hugo Boss:
- Bets & Angles For The Big Game
- Morning Download: Everything you need, all in one place.
- Taylor Taylor Taylor
- Bets from the Group Chat: One final parlay.
- It’s 2/11. Take it away Peter Overzet…
We finally made it. The last game of the 2023 NFL season.
Below I highlighted my favorite prop, bet, and DFS plays for today, as well as the biggest question and most interesting storyline…
💰 My favorite prop: MVS higher than 39.5 rec yards (2.5x spice on Underdog Fantasy)
I’ve been Marquez Valdes-Scantling pilled (which is truly a scary thing). But with so much uncertainty surrounding Chiefs’ pass catchers not named Travis Kelce or Rashee Rice, MVS’ 96% route participation in the AFC Championship game sticks out like a sore thumb.
On Underdog Fantasy, you can get a 2.5x multiplier on your Pick ‘Em entry for taking MVS to clear 38.5 receiving yards. He had one catch for 30+ yards vs. the Ravens and two catches for 30+ yards vs. the Bills and now gets a banged-up Niners secondary.
He could certainly bagel here, but this payoff is worth embracing the volatility in his game.
💸 My favorite bet: Chiefs vs. Niners Under 47.5
I’ve been a chicken on picking a side here. My typical m.o. would put me on the Niners, but Brock Purdy’s recent play has me spooked and I’ve felt myself slowly capitulating to the “just take the G.O.A.T QB as an underdog” crowd.
So instead, I’ll do what worked well for me in the AFC Championship and take the under (47.5).
For as strong as the Mahomes narratives are, this Chiefs team is built around their defense and run game. I fully expect them to bleed the clock with Isiah Pacheco and dink and dunk away this game as much as possible.
I also expect the Niners to attack the Chiefs via the ground, which would result in a lower-scoring affair.
💎 My favorite Hidden Gem DFS play: Chiefs TE, Noah Gray
If you don’t want to take the MVS plunge, Noah Gray is my other favorite gem for DFS contests. Here’s why:
- Only $1,800 salary on DraftKings
- Chiefs running way more 2-TE sets
- Gray has earned 14% of the team’s targets in back-to-back weeks
- Will likely be in the optimal lineup if he snatches a TD
For more DFS thoughts, check out James McCool’s piece.
❓ The biggest question: is Brock Purdy ready for the biggest stage?
We’ve spent a good chunk of this season debating whether Brock Purdy is a game manager propped up by an otherworldly skill position group or a unicorn 7th-round pick deserving of the MVP.
Tonight won’t tell the entire story, but it will give us a very good indication of where Purdy falls on that spectrum.
🧚 Best storyline: Taylor Swift
Speaking of capitulation, I’m giving in to the Big Taylor Swift industrial complex and going to fully embrace it.
The Swifties are totally out of control and it’s honestly endearing.
I hope they show her 200 times on the telecast.
I hope she parachutes in from her private jet after her long, arduous commute from Tokyo.
I hope she accepts the Lombardi with Travis Kelce.
When all of our long-shot bets get dusted, their happiness will be all we have left.
Enjoy the game.
🛠️ Everything you need for Super Bowl Sunday
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on everything you can find at Fantasy Life to prep for the big game.
For everything else you need for Super Bowl Sunday—including our Inactives page—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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It’s the final game of the season. It’s been a long two weeks leading up to kickoff, but our team has put together some amazing coverage throughout. Matt LaMarca highlights some key pieces to review on Super Bowl Sunday:
⚔️ Matchup Roundup
As always, a great place to start would be looking at Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report.
He dives into some of the biggest developments for the 49ers and Chiefs during the playoffs, including Christian McCaffrey rarely leaving the field, Isiah Pacheco’s increased workload, and Travis Kelce’s improved target share.
After that, Ian Hartitz put together two articles worth exploring.
The first details how each team made it to the Super Bowl and what they need to do to win the final game of the year.
The second breaks down some of the unsung heroes for both squads and how they could impact Super Bowl LVIII.
For fantasy purposes, the Super Bowl provides some of the biggest DFS slates of the season. Our team tackled the DFS slate from every angle you can, including:
- Optimal lineup constructions for Showdown slates.
- Favorite plays at each position.
- Some potential hidden gems for your lineups.
- Correlated plays for pick’em contests.
Finally, make sure to check out this week’s Fantasy Questions article and podcast, where Ian and the rest of the team look at some of the most important factors in 49ers-Chiefs.
💰 Betting Roundup
Let’s get started with the content I produced this week because I’m a narcissist.
The Sharp Report highlights how the pros have been betting the side and total, while I highlighted some of my favorite prop bets.
For the more adventurous, I also broke down some SGPs to consider taking advantage of, especially if you’re grabbing some of the various promotions available across the industry.
Of course, I am just a small part of the betting team here at Fantasy Life. Freedman is the top dog, and he broke down his favorite ways to bet the game and the prop market.
We’ve also been busy finding edges in every other corner of the betting market, including:
Ian dipped his toe into the player prop market as well.
Freedman, Geoff, and I also got together on Saturday morning to record a comprehensive review of all of our favorite plays for Super Bowl LVIII.
Whether you’re a hardcore bettor or someone just looking to have a fun sweat during the Super Bowl, we’ve got something for everyone.
🤝 One more chance at finding paydirt for a payday. Big game TD bets.
🚑️ Will the Chiefs get this RB back? It will be a game-time decision.
💰 We’re up 50.48 units and counting with Super Bowl bets locked in…all for free.
🎹 Single Game Parlays for the Swifties. Of course.
📈 Go big or go home. Four players to ladder bet on Sunday.
✍️ Super Bowl pick’em plays. Lock ‘em in.
🎸 Tua playing guitar at the Super Bowl. What a world.
🤔 Will Ekeler stay with the Chargers? Harbaugh weighs in.
🛩️ The story behind Taylor’s flight from Tokyo to Vegas. Give the people what they want.
Welcome to Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his losers.
After shipping our Conference Championship parlay (+450 odds), the group chat SGP is now up +17.18 units for the season (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride together with us!).
Good luck!
🏆 Super Bowl Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay
Each of these legs can be found in the Same-Game Parlay tab of the Chiefs/49ers game on BetMGM.
1️⃣ Freedman likes: Chiefs moneyline
Officially, Matt is on the Chiefs +3.0 in our bet tracker but as an extension, he likes the Chiefs in this game and laid why in his analysis from earlier in the week.
From the trends (Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog) to the experience advantage at head coach (and kicker!) it’s hard to pick against the Chiefs this week.
2️⃣ LaMarca likes: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards
- Projection: 74.7
- Play to: 69.5
As much as I know he likes the 49ers in this game, LaMarca also recognizes this is a good spot for Pacheco:
“Pacheco has operated as the team's clear lead back, and he has at least 67 rushing yards in five of his past six games. That includes all three postseason contests. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the run than the pass, so it's another great spot for Pacheco.”
3️⃣ Geoff likes: Travis Kelce anytime TD
The 49ers lost starting safety SS Talanoa Hufanga in Week 11 and since that time they have been more susceptible to big games from opposing TEs.
They’ve allowed three TDs to tight ends over their last seven games and last game, allowed rookie TE Sam LaPorta to post a 9-97 line on 13 targets.
🤝 Putting it all together: +380, BetMGM
- Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rush yards
- Chiefs moneyline
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account here!
