Table of Contents
  1. 2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings
  2. 1. Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR
  3. 2. Malik Nabers | WR
  4. 3. Rome Odunze | WR
  5. 4. Brock Bowers | TE
  6. 5. Caleb Williams | QB
  7. 6. Jayden Daniels | QB
  8. 7. Brian Thomas Jr. | WR
  9. 8. Jonathon Brooks | RB
  10. 9. Xavier Worthy | WR
  11. 10. Troy Franklin | WR
  12. 11. Ladd McConkey | WR
  13. 12. Adonai Mitchell | WR
  14. 13. Trey Benson | RB
  15. 14. Keon Coleman | WR
  16. 15. Jaylen Wright | RB
  17. 16. Blake Corum | RB
  18. 17. Roman Wilson | WR
  19. 18. Ricky Pearsall | WR
  20. 19. Braelon Allen | RB
  21. 20. Will Shipley | RB

For the past six weeks, I have been working on the Rookie Super Model and have broken down the top prospects for each position into tiers.

We have also updated our Super Model tools to include draft classes for each position back to 2018 so you can compare prospects. You will also find detailed information on the inputs and methodology for each position so you can understand the why and how behind the model’s scores.

With all that research and information under my belt, it is time to combine everything into one ranking list across all positions. Below, I have ranked my top 20 rookies for 2024 before the NFL Draft. If you want my entire rookie rankings, you can check them out on the fantasy football rankings page.

2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR

Harrison's Super Model Score, a unique metric that surpasses Ja'Marr Chase's, is a testament to his potential. He embodies all the qualities of an elite prospect, ticking all the boxes of pedigree, adjusted production and efficiency.

MHJ

Harrison's versatility shines through — he can line up outside and win against zone and man coverage. While he may not be the best yards-after-catch (YAC) player, his ability to win over the top and master the intermediate range of the field is truly impressive.

WRs with a score in the same range in the WR Super Model have found success at a high rate in their first two seasons.

  • Top-12 Finishes: 17%
  • Top-24 Finishes: 67%
  • Top-36 Finishes: 83%

2. Malik Nabers | WR

Nabers doesn’t have the same pent-up anticipation as Harrison, but he is an elite WR prospect in his own right, with the third-best score in the history of the WR Super Model.

Malik Nabers

Adjusted career receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) is the most robust production metric in the Super Model. It normalizes for age, average depth of target (aDOT), alignment, QB play and quality of teammates (target competition) — and Nabers posted the No. 1 score in the class.

Nabers offers the skill set to line up inside or outside and provides more big-play potential after the catch than Harrison. He dominated against both man and zone coverage concepts at LSU, making him a diverse prospect who should find a way to win regardless of landing spot.

Nabers grades out in the same range as Harrison, offering the same fantasy hit rates.

3. Rome Odunze | WR

Being in the same class as Harrison and Nabers isn’t easy. However, Odunze would have been the WR1 in the 2022 and 2023 classes. He is the No. 5 all-time prospect in the WR Super Model behind Jaylen Waddle and just ahead of DeVonta Smith.

Rome Odunze

Odunze comes in slightly behind Harrison and Nabers primarily for two reasons:

  1. He broke out a year later.
  2. He didn’t reach the same heights.

Still, he is a fantastic prospect who can win at every depth of the field, playing from the outside. Odunze was unfazed against zone and man coverage. 

When you add all that up, the Super Model still LOVES Odunze, and NFL talent evaluators agree. Lance Zierlein has him as his No. 1 prospect.

Odunze offers immediate WR1 potential despite grading slightly lower than Harrison and Nabers.

4. Brock Bowers | TE

Based on data back to the 2018 NFL Draft, Bowers is the No. 2 prospect in the TE Super Model behind Kyle Pitts. We don’t have a Speed Score for Bowers because he didn’t run the 40-yard dash, but if he had posted a time similar to his Nike SPARQ Combine (4.50), Bowers would have eclipsed Pitts if he had gone in the top five.

Brock Bowers

Bowers can attack all levels of the field — a rarity for the TE position — and has demonstrated an ability to defeat man and zone coverage. He is a WR playing the TE position who should be a mismatch nightmare for linebackers and safeties for years to come.

While TEs don’t have a great history of breaking out in their first two seasons, Bowers fits the bill. Here is how Super Model scores have faired in Years 1 and 2:

  • Top-9 Finishes: 50%
  • Top-12 Finishes: 100%

5. Caleb Williams | QB

We don’t have a Super Model for quarterbacks because I haven’t been able to nail down a strong model for the position. However, Williams is a near-lock to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.

Per our own Ian Hartitz in his scouting report on Williams, he graded out well among 122 Power 5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks from 2021 to 2023:

  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade: 91.4 (No. 5)
  • Passer rating: 118.3 (No. 3)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 76% (No. 23)
  • Yards per attempt: 9.1 (No. 7)

Williams doesn’t offer the same ceiling as Jayden Daniels as a rusher, but he could still provide value over many of his NFL peers. Ian found that Williams’ rushing production looked pretty good when excluding sacks.

  • 2023: 74-356-11 (4.8 YPC)
  • 2022: 94-624-10 (6.6 YPC)

The Bears currently hold the No. 1 pick and offer a strong group of weapons with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. While Chicago hasn’t been great at developing QBs in recent years, it looks like a great landing spot for early fantasy production.

6. Jayden Daniels | QB

Daniels doesn’t have the same resume as Williams, but he finished as strong as anyone. Per Ian Hartitz, Daniels was amazing over his last two seasons.

  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade: 90.5 (tied for No. 7)
  • Passer rating: 121.1 (No. 4)
  • Yards per attempt: 9.3 (tied for No. 5)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 78.3% (No. 6)

However, in his Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Matt Waldman had concerns regarding the former four-star recruit’s transition to the NFL. When making multiple reads, Daniels lacked timing and patience, which caused him to move to the next read too soon, leaving big plays on the field.

While those challenges will have to be ironed out for Daniels to reach his potential as a passer, he still offers the type of rushing upside that can offset those concerns for fantasy football purposes. In his final season, Daniels flashed that mouthwatering potential with 135 attempts for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs.

In his scouting report, Ian mentions Daniels' propensity to take big hits and his smaller frame as potential concerns. That is worth considering, but in a clean runout where everything goes well for Daniels (I don’t know what percentage of the time this happens), he has the traits to become a major difference-maker in fantasy football.

7. Brian Thomas Jr. | WR

Thomas isn’t a complete prospect like the top three WRs, but he offers the size-speed combination (6-foot-3 with a 4.33 40-yard dash) that NFL teams love. He was never a high-end target earner in college, and his coming-out party didn’t happen until his final season. However, when QBs did look his way, Thomas rewarded them. The former four-star recruit registered a 132.8 career targeted QB rating.

Thomas was a superb deep ball threat, but he also showed promise as an underneath option, with 50% of his targets coming 0 to 9 yards downfield. He has work to do as an intermediate route runner, and his 18% targets per route run (TPRR) are lower than we expect from an alpha WR.

Thomas offers immense upside if he works out these areas of his game, and the model trusts his LSU pedigree. If he doesn’t, he could get stuck in a vertical route tree, which isn’t ideal in a league that prioritizes preventing the deep pass. The track record for players of his archetype is tricky — check out Thomas’ Super Model Prospect Profile for more.

8. Jonathon Brooks | RB

Brooks is the most complete back in the draft, which gives him a ton of outs. He busted loose as a redshirt sophomore with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson gone, with a 2.22 adjusted yards per team attempt (YPTA). That is the second-best age-20 mark of any Power 5 back in the class.

The former four-star recruit was proficient in the passing game with the third-best PFF receiving grade in the class. He wasn’t a high-end target earner but made the most of his opportunities when they came.

He is coming off a late-season ACL injury, so fantasy managers might need to be patient in Year 1. Still, historically, this type of profile has a great hit rate, with 71% of the RBs in his range of the Super Model reaching a top-24 finish and 48% climbing into the top 12 by Year 2. 

Note: If you are wondering how the 46th percentile is a good score, it has to do with draft capital disparity. The 46th percentile ranks 20th out of 215 prospects — you can read more details here.

Brooks is the hands-down RB1 of the 2024 class for dynasty and rookie drafts. He would be among my top eight players if he hadn’t suffered an ACL injury.

9. Xavier Worthy | WR

Worthy grades out as the No. 30 WR receiver prospect since 2018 in the Super Model database. While his record-setting 40-yard dash (4.21) is the most often talked about aspect of his game, Worthy was a high-end producer starting as a true freshman. The Longhorn’s adjusted career RYPTPA is one of the best in the class.

Worthy’s high-end ability around the line of scrimmage, paired with his downfield prowess, makes him one of the more versatile WRs in the class after the elite options. At 165 pounds, his size is somewhat concerning, but he dominated against man and zone coverage in college.

The big question is if Worthy can develop into an every-down player at the next level. He has the receiving skills to get there, but it could depend on his offensive coordinator's style of offense and open-mindedness. We have seen 25% of WRs in Worthy’s range of the model deliver a top-24 finish in their first two seasons.

10. Troy Franklin | WR

Franklin ranks as the No. 33 WR in the Super Model database. The former No. 3 WR recruit in the 2021 class didn’t take long to make an impact at Oregon, producing high-end adjusted RYPTPA scores as a sophomore (2.07) and a junior (2.95). He was electric with QBs dialed his number, posting the fourth-best career-targeted QB rating since 2018.

Franklin’s target share against zone was lower than expected, with a 21% TPRR but he cooked man coverage (28%). His target-depth profile showed him to be a threat at all field levels.

In a loaded WR class, Franklin gets pushed down a little, but he is in the same tier as Thomas and Worthy. Like Worthy, landing spot could be huge for Franklin, but he has the tools to provide WR2 to WR3 upside.

11. Ladd McConkey | WR

McConkey wasn’t a highly lauded recruit, and it took time before he made his mark with the Bulldogs. But he made a difference in a tough conference when he got opportunities. McConkey posted the third-highest career targeted QB rating in the class. 

Some think of McConkey as an underneath-slot wide receiver, but he played in a wide alignment on 69% of snaps. 

He saw a heavy dose of targets behind the line of scrimmage but also stretched out the field, with 20% of his targets coming 20-plus yards downfield. He was at his best in the 10- to 19-yard range of the field — where he could do severe damage at the next level.

He was above average against man coverage (23% TPRR) but one of the best WRs in the class against zone with a 25% TPRR and the best yards per route run (YPRR) at 3.05.

McConkey offers three-down ability at the next level and could become a fantasy darling if he lands on a team that keeps him on the field in two-WR alignments.

12. Adonai Mitchell | WR

Mitchell is a polarizing prospect because he flashes the high-end ability talent evaluators love and checks the height-speed boxes. However, his data profile reveals his inconsistencies in a big way. His adjusted career RYPTPA will be the second-lowest on record behind Kadarius Toney if he does go in Round 1.

Mitchell is a certifiable deep threat. Over his career at Georgia and Texas, he earned 25% of his targets 20-plus yards downfield and registered a 15.6 aDOT. He produced 519 yards and eight TDs on those targets.

The question is if he can ever turn into more than a one-trick pony in a league with a not-on-my-watch mentality toward deep chunk plays. Even when he got man coverage — when true alphas shine — Mitchell managed a below-average 19% TPRR.

Mitchell offers a high ceiling if he can put everything together. He just profiles more like a raw Day 2 prospect than a Round 1 NFL Draft pick. But, hey, I am not running an NFL team, and with expected draft capital in the equation, he profiles in a range where 25% of WRs have posted a top-24 finish in their first two seasons.

13. Trey Benson | RB

Benson posted the fourth-highest Power 5 career PFF rush grade and the No. 1 Speed Score in the class. No other back forced more missed tackles per attempt (0.39), and he averaged the fifth-most yards after contact (3.97). However, he didn’t find the field often on passing downs and wasn’t that effective when targeted (40th-percentile PFF Receiving Grade).

This profile type doesn’t often find a highly profitable three-down role at the next level. Benson’s got enough in his pass-blocking bag to find his way onto the field in long-down-distance scenarios, but his avenue to a role in the two-minute offense isn’t favorable. His best path to fantasy stardom is as an early-down banger who gobbles up carries inside the five-yard line on a high-quality offense.

Taking Benson over Brooks in league formats focused on only 2024 makes sense. Historically, backs with similar Super Model scores have produced a top-24 finish in their first two seasons 27% of the time.

14. Keon Coleman | WR

Coleman is a big-bodied rebounding WR archetype that was all the rage in the NFL 10 to 15 years ago. He got off to a hot start as a 19-year-old sophomore at Michigan State with a 1.93 RYPTPA but couldn’t build on that after transferring to Florida State (1.78).

When targeted, he was a plus WR and boosted his offenses in the TD department, but he wasn’t elite in either category. After adjusting for aDOT and alignment, his 26% contested target rate was still 6 percentage points above expectation. Despite those challenges, his QBs trusted him against man-coverage looks with an above-average 25% TPRR.

Coleman might not have the high-end vertical speed teams are looking for, but he could add value in a friendly scheme. Due to his separation struggles, his best fit might be as a big slot WR. It could take some time to develop if asked to play outside where he must prove he can beat cornerbacks over the top to set up his underneath route tree. 

We have seen 39% of WRs with a Super Model profile like Coleman reach top-36 status, with 6% finding their way to a top-12 finish.

15. Jaylen Wright | RB

Wright is a boom-bust prospect who offers the size and speed NFL teams covet. His 73rd-percentile Speed Score is the third-best in the class, but he never carved out a full-time role, which kept his production profile (YPTA) in check.

He performed admirably on his limited touches with a 71st-percentile PFF Rush grade and a 60th-percentile receiving grade. Lance Zierlein graded him as his No. 2 prospect at RB in the class.

Wright offers three-down upside along with big-play potential. He won’t likely ever become a dominant passing-down option, but he can turn schemed looks and check-downs into chunk plays, adding a dynamic element to his team's offense.

16. Blake Corum | RB

Corum’s age and low Speed Score hurt him in the Super Model, but his production and quality of play speak for themselves. He has proven that he can handle a significant workload, which matters at the next level.

If you focus on yards after contact (30th percentile), missed tackles forced (43rd percentile) and explosive rush rate (12th percentile), you may see Corum as a high-volume back without much upside. However, his 84th-percentile PFF Rush grade already accounts for those things but within the context of the situations he faced.

Corum wasn’t a high-end receiving option in college, but he offers every-down upside in the right situation and grades out in the same tier as Wright.

17. Roman Wilson | WR

Wilson’s collegiate production wasn’t dominant. He served as a role player until finally securing a more prominent role as a senior with a 72% route participation. However, on a per-target basis, he showed up in the data with a 75th percentile targeted QB rating.

He primarily played from the slot, with only 42% of his snaps coming out wide, but he wasn’t a check-down option. He stretched the vertical boundary with 29% of his targets 20-plus yards downfield. Playing the vertical slot might be his best initial fit in the NFL — a role we saw Christian Kirk parlay into much more.

Historically, 25% of the players in Wilson’s range in the Super Model have produced a top-24 finish in their first two seasons.

18. Ricky Pearsall | WR

Pearsall’s stock jumped 50 spots in mock drafts after a strong performance at the NFL Combine. The film community also gives him solid marks for his route-running prowess. 

However, that didn’t manifest in adjusted career RYPTPA the way we would expect. Pearsall didn’t do much until Years 4 and 5 at the ages of 22 and 23, and even then his production wasn’t high-end.

He grades out in an area of the Super Model where he has a shot at turning into a top-24 producer, but it is right on the line, and more players than not with his late-age production have struggled. However, if he gets Round 2 draft capital, he will get a chance to carve out a role as a slot, flanker or possibly both.

19. Braelon Allen | RB

Based on his production and workload capacity, Allen could develop into a volume-based contributor on a run-centric offense at the next level. He has the size NFL teams covet but hasn’t shown he is a high-quality runner. 

Despite decent pass-blocking skills that could get him on the field on third downs, he doesn’t offer much upside as a receiver. If Allen can land with a team needing an early-down back that can help in short-yardage situations, he could push for RB2 value — especially if it is a high-quality offense.

20. Will Shipley | RB

Shipley’s pedigree and traits scream RB1 upside, but his production profile leaves you scratching your head. The former five-star recruit was a solid producer the moment he got to Clemson but never notched an elite season.

He is the most versatile back in the class and offers massive potential as a pass catcher if he further develops with NFL coaching. There are no guarantees that progress ever takes place, but it is the kind of bet that pays off big when you are right.

Shipley offers the type of every-down upside we want to take a swing on, because if the light switch comes on he has the skill set to unlock gobs of fantasy points as a dual threat. One in four prospects who graded out in Shipley’s range of the Super Model found top-24 success by Year 2. 

Dwain McFarland
Dwain McFarland
Dwain is the Lead Fantasy Analyst and Director of Analytics of Fantasy Life. He is best known for the Utilization Report, which led to his first full-time role in the industry at Pro Football Focus. Dwain’s experience and background have helped him craft a unique voice in the fantasy football community. He has placed highly in multiple national season-long contests, including three top-five finishes at the FFPC. Before beginning his fantasy career in 2018, Dwain led product strategy and data and analytics teams for one of the largest healthcare improvement companies in the nation.
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