Ian Hartitz breaks down potential 2025 fantasy football breakouts based on upside we've seen from small sample sizes:

Small sample sizes are a helluva drug in fantasy football land.

On the one hand, efficiently picking up yards in the name of the game, so it'd make sense if players putting up elite per-touch numbers earn more opportunities down the road. On the other hand, shooting 40% from three-point land on 10 attempts isn't the same as on five, especially when looking at the difference in attention between someone like Steph Curry vs. … someone who isn't Steph Curry.

Ill-fated attempt at integrating a basketball reference aside: Today's goal is to honor some lesser-name players who just so happened to put up pretty, pretty, pretty great efficiency numbers in 2024. We'll stick with guys who have a shot to perhaps expand their role next season to, you know, hopefully find some gems in fantasy land.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Fantasy Football Breakouts for 2025: Small Sample Size All-Stars

Jets QB Justin Fields

Over the past three seasons, there has actually been minimal turnover atop the "fantasy points per dropback" leaderboard. In fact, four QBs have made the metric's top five in three consecutive seasons:

Now, this goodness from 2024 obviously only came across six starts, but for all the grief that Fields catches as a passer, we probably don't give him enough love for what he's capable of doing on the ground. After all, Fields joins Jackson and Jayden Daniels as the only QBs in NFL history to average at least 50 rushing yards per game during their career.

This dual-threat element has really helped Fields consistently rack up rather great numbers in fantasy land, even if his progression as a real-life passer hasn't exactly been awesome:

Fields fantasy points per game:

  • 2022: 19.7 (QB5)
  • 2023: 17.7 (QB11)
  • 2024: 18.9 (QB8)

It remains to be seen if Fields will turn into the first overly successful Jets QB since … Chad Pennington? Mark Sanchez? Joe Namath?

Yikes, it really has been rough. But yeah: I wouldn't count on Fields necessarily being confused with some of the league's more elite pure passers anytime soon (have you SEEN that WR room outside of Garrett Wilson?); just realize Fields putting up quality numbers in fantasy land would be par for the course–and he's accordingly the Fantasy Life consensus QB13 at the moment.

Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby

I was a big fan of Bigsby coming out of Auburn and believed he had the potential to serve as the Jaguars' "Thunder" to Travis Etienne's "Lightning" while also perhaps providing some plus goodness as a pass-catcher based on some (now hilarious in hindsight) training camp reports.

Well, things went quite miserably on the … Tank-wagon? We'll workshop it: Things were ROUGH in 2023, as the rookie was one of the league's least-efficient rushers and maybe the single-worst pass-catcher in the NFL (not an exaggeration). He had a LONG way to go to approach average status at a position not exactly known for having a great shelf life.

But then something funny happened: Bigsby suddenly started to resemble one of the game's more violent rushers, accordingly posting some borderline erotic advanced rushing numbers—ESPECIALLY compared to his aforementioned atrocious debut campaign.

 

The (very fun) film backed up the numbers: Bigsby was the best RB in Jacksonville last season, especially with ETN dealing with nagging hamstring and shoulder injuries throughout the year.

Now, it's not a given that new head coach Liam Coen views the rising third-year talent as the best RB in Duval County—ETN has a pair of 1,400 yard seasons to his name, and Bhayshul Tuten already has an army of speed-score truthers–but don't be so quick to dismiss the man who just averaged the ninth-most rush yards over expected per carry in 2024.

Oh, what's that? Bigsby IS being completely dismissed and carries a significantly lower ADP (RB44, pick 145.1) than either Etienne (RB37, 119.6) or Tuten (RB38, 122.7)? Interesting!

Buccaneers RB Sean Tucker

One of my favorite columns every year is Matthew Berry's most interesting things he heard at the combine—and I swear I'm not just saying this because Mr. Berry is the boss man over here at Fantasy Life. It's simply a fun column filled with actionable insider information that actually focuses on fantasy impact. Cool? Cool.

Anyways, this one particular note stuck out to me regarding the Buccaneers … No. 3 RB.

“But perhaps the most interesting part of the Tampa Bay running back discussion was about Sean Tucker. “He has the talent to be a No. 1 RB in this league,” said a team source. The issue is just that he’s stuck behind Bucky Irving. Reading between the lines of the conversation, I came away thinking they love Irving, they love Tucker, and aren’t as enthusiastic about Rachaad White. I bet Tucker overtakes White for the RB2 role sooner [rather] than later.”

Head coach Todd Bowles has since thrown some gasoline into this flame, and why not? Small-sample size of just 50 rush attempts be damned, we're talking about THE most explosive RB in the NFL when it came to percentage of carries to gain 10-plus yards (14%!) last season. The only other RBs to clear 12% in a season since 2023 are De'Von Achane, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Christian McCaffrey. That's really good company! Tucker also demonstrated the ability to make plays as a receiver, easily ranking first in yards per route run (2.6) among 82 qualified backs.

To summarize: The Bucs really like Tucker, and he made more out of his (limited) opportunities as a rusher and receiver than just about any other RB in the league. This is a good football player!

 

It remains to be seen if Tucker is really a threat to Rachaad White's RB2 job, and obviously Bucky Irving isn't going anywhere atop the depth chart. Still, there's enough positivity and proven efficiency on the table here for me to buy in enough to throw last-round darts the 23-year-old's way in best ball land.

Broncos WR Marvin Mims

The term "gadget" is a bit derogatory in the football world because it implies that a player needs to be schemed up touches in order to contribute; they aren't good enough to simply be a full-time RB or WR.

That said, there's nothing inherently wrong with being the sort of playmaker capable of making big things happen on screens or designed deep shots. If it was THAT easy, everyone would do it, so getting "gadget" plays isn't a bad thing … unless they really do come at the expense of a starting job.

This brings us to Mims, who has been used as more of a part-time player during his short two-year career. In fact, the Broncos' Wild Card loss to the Bills marked the first time all season that Sean Payton put Mims on the field for at least 50% of the offense's snaps.

Glass-half-empty folks will point to this fact as a sign that the 2023 second-rounder isn't good enough to play starter's snaps … but glass-half-full folks can simply say that Payton finally caught up to the reality that we're looking at one of the league's more efficient pass-catchers here.

 

Mims has received 24 rush attempts in 34 career games, and his 27 screen targets last year were the sixth-highest mark in the league. The first-team All-Pro returner made plays all over the field in 2024 while proving especially lethal from the slot. This is a damn good football player!

Maybe new additions like TE Evan Engram, RB RJ Harvey, and/or WR Pat Bryant eat into some of these designed touches and limit Mims' potential to finally get a true full-time role … or maybe year three will be the time that Payton takes the chains off and let's arguably the Broncos' most explosive playmaker do his thing on a more regular basis.

Cowboys WR KaVontae Turpin

Turpin is listed as 5-foot-9, 153 pounds. A strong gust of wind probably has a decent chance of toppling him over. There was a hilarious sequence last year when massive human being Vita Vea wrapped Turpin up, and it didn't look like the two should be playing the same sport. 

And yet, Turpin's small and slight stature didn't stop him from leading the Cowboys in yards per carry and yards per reception last season.

Similar to Mims, we never really saw Turpin get a full opportunity to work as an every-down starter (he's never played more than 53% of the offense's snaps in a game), although his only two career games playing at least half of the offense's snaps did, perhaps not coincidentally, come in the final two games of 2024.

Now, the absence of CeeDee Lamb during Weeks 17 and 18 of last season was probably what compelled the Cowboys to increase Turpin's role, but their lack of additions at the position throughout the entire offseason (save for George Pickens) is perhaps a sign of bigger things to come here. After all, Turpin's wins on the football field weren't exactly gimmicky–this simply looks like a player with electric enough speed to threaten defenses of all shapes and sizes from pretty much anywhere on the football field.

 

The eye test and the stat sheet both tell us Turpin was probably the Cowboys' second-most explosive playmaker behind only Lamb last season (with all due respect to Rico Dowdle). What if the former XFL MVP's shiny new three-year, $13.5M contract is the first step in more fully integrating him in an offense dying for more big-play talents?

As is the case with most players in this article, it seems unlikely Turpin gets fully unleashed in 2025, but you could imagine what it'd be like if he did.

Honorable mention: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and Saints WR Rashid Shaheed

Crowning Rice and Shaheed as small-sample size all-stars feels a bit like cheating since neither would have qualified for this "honor" with better luck from the Injury Gods, but I did want to give both some love for truly doing some special things on the football field in 2024.

In Rice's case, all the man did through three games was average 21.6 PPR points per contest–a mark that would have only trailed Ja'Marr f*cking Chase over the course of an entire season. Literally the only WR more efficient when it came to picking up yards and earning targets on a per-route basis was Puka Nacua!

It remains to be seen if Rice's past legal issues will catch up to him this season (there's reason to believe they won't), while learned doctors are optimistic about his chances of being healthy enough to go in Week 1. Should the 25-year-old talent make it onto the field come September, you won't need more than two hands to count the number of WRs you'd rather have on your fantasy squad.

And as for Shaheed: The man is good at football.

  • Shaheed managed to post four top-18 PPR fantasy finishes in just six games last season. Somehow, that mark tied Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison, and Garrett Wilson, and was more than guys like Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens, DK Metcalf. Not too shabby!
     
  • The Saints' field-stretching maven has averaged 15+ yards per reception while catching at least 20 passes in each of the last three seasons–something only Pickens has also managed to achieve across the NFL. Nobody has more TD catches on passes thrown 30-plus yards downfield than Shaheed (7) over the past two seasons.
     
  • The former first-team All-Pro returner is also electric when bringing back punts as well as sneaky solid on the ground (7.2 career yards per carry on 17 attempts!).

Shaheed, put simply, is a dog. Here's to hoping whoever winds up under center for the Saints in 2025 is capable of getting this playmaker the football.