Fantasy Football Eclipse Scenarios: Examining Rare Occurrences Coming In 2024

What in the absolute hell are these total eclipse shenanigans everyone keeps going on and on about?

Per literally NASA:

“On April 8, 2024, a total solar eclipse will cross North America, passing over Mexico, the United States, and Canada. A total solar eclipse happens when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, completely blocking the face of the Sun. The sky will darken as if it were dawn or dusk.”

You should check this out if in the area; it’s a phenomenon that occurs every 18 months on average — but only every 400 years from any one given place on Earth.

Three different avenues come to the top of my head when attempting to relate the moon briefly passing between the Sun and Earth for a few minutes to … fantasy football:

• Flash-in-the-pan ballers who pop up every year or two but don’t last.
• True generational talent — not like draft head jargon — but legit, “We don’t expect to see this level of excellence again for a long-ass time” talent.
• Potentially awesome players who are unfortunately “blocked” on the depth chart by someone else.

Ultimately, I struggle to come to decisive decisions when it comes to anything not related to NCAA Football 2014 play-calling, so let’s go ahead and just break these bitches down one by one because why not: It is indeed a great day to be great, after all.

Flash-in-the-pan ballers who pop up every year or two but don’t last

I conveniently wrote an article on the biggest one-hit wonders around this exact time last year before even fathoming what a total eclipse was, let alone commit to relating it to the great American pastime known as fantasy football.

And here we are: The top five from 1997 to 2022. Sorry, Cleveland:

1. 2010 Browns RB Peyton Hillis
2. 2013 Browns WR Josh Gordon
3. 2015 Browns TE Gary Barnidge
4. 2010 Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd
5. 2014 Patriots RB Jonas Gray

This begs another question (a question inside a question — question-ception if you will):

Are there any imposters from 2023 who we should be particularly wary of ahead of next season?

Well, two teammates do happen to sit atop PFF’s 2023 leaderboard for most PPR fantasy points ABOVE expected:

1. De'Von Achane (+6.1 PPR points above expected per game)
2. Raheem Mostert (+4.5)

On the one hand, we are talking about two of the four fastest RBs in terms of highest ball-carrier speed from Next-Gen Stats; it makes sense that both managed to make a bit more out of their opportunities than a mere mortal.

On the other hand, Achane just averaged 7.8 yards per carry. On 103 rush attempts. In the year 2023. THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN. It’s the highest mark in the GOAT Stat Head query that dates back to 1946 — but plot twist: Bears RB Beattie Feathers averaged an absurd 8.4 yards per carry back in 1934 (people forget).

Eclipse haters might want to call the Dolphins’ rising second-year talent a fraud since Feathers would never gain even 400 total yards in a season again after his breakout rookie campaign — but not you, a scholar and part-time scientist: Achane is a consensus top-eight RB in the Fantasy Life rankings, and Mostert’s RB25 ADP is more than reasonable for a guy that just, you know, scored more half-PPR points than any RB not named Christian McCaffrey last season.

True generational talent — not like draft head jargon — but legit, “We don’t expect to see this level of excellence again for a long-ass time” talent

One of the worst terms in the NFL draft lexicon: generational talent. It’s shallow and pedantic and you can’t convince me otherwise.

Anyways, what is generational, you ask? (Asking for a friend.) Per Wikipedia:

“A generation is all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively." It also is “the average period, generally considered to be about 20-30 years, during which children are born and grow up, become adults, and begin to have children.”

Not quite the whole 400-year thing that we were talking about with the moon and Sun and all that earlier, but close enough.

For our purposes: “Generational” is considered as “since the 1990s” … and it certainly seems like there are MAYBE two such candidates in this year’s draft class.

USC QB Caleb Williams

The 2022 Heisman Trophy Winner can pass. The 22-year-old prodigy can run.

There’s a reason why Williams remains the HEAVY favorite to land on the Chicago Bears via the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Joining a suddenly fantasy-friendly offensive environment featuring stud WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen could help lead to fireworks in fantasy land sooner rather than later; Williams looks like the real deal Holyfield.

Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison’s 77-1,263-14 line with C.J. Stroud as a true sophomore was impressive enough, but his follow-up 67-1,211-14 campaign while catching passes from Kyle “Honda” McCord really demonstrated the reality that the 21-year-old talent is largely capable of thriving regardless of who is under center.

The thing that Harrison does better than just about any college WR in recent memory is go up and get the football. Contested-catch artist doesn’t fully do him justice; you just don’t see this sort of body control from a guy standing 6-feet-4 and weighing 205 pounds.

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) celebrates a first down in the first half against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The evaluation for Harrison becomes even cleaner when we consider the chances that he lands with either the Cardinals (picking fourth overall) or the Chargers (fifth). Both teams conveniently boast proven franchise QBs and WR depth charts in dire need of an elite No. 1 option.

The Ohio State product deserves to be the first non-QB off the board in dynasty land. Honestly, if you want to draft Harrison over anyone not named Caleb Williams, go for it.

Potentially awesome players who are unfortunately “blocked” on the depth chart by someone else

I guess in this ridiculous scenario the Earth is the backup, but the moon (teammate) is blocking them from the Sun — which must be the starting job.

Got it? One key difference: The process is going to take a lot longer than 3 minutes and 49 seconds to clear out for these three talented — yet technically backup — AFC RBs:

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren

Warren was one of the NFL’s best RB by most advanced metrics in 2023:

Warren among 41 RBs with 125-plus rush attempts

• PFF rushing grade: 84.2 (No. 7)
• Yards per carry: 5.3 (No. 2)
• Rushing yards over expected per carry: +1.11 (No. 2)
• Yards after contact per carry: 3.6 (No. 2)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.36 (No. 1)
• Explosive run play rate: 16.1% (No. 2)

One problem: Warren (210 touches) was used well behind Najee Harris (284), who continues to soak up most of the work on the ground and (especially) the fantasy-friendly goal-line opportunities.

Look for Warren to again provide solid efficiency-induced RB3 production next season, but he'll be knocking on the RB1 door should Harris ever be forced to miss any time … which he hasn’t since entering the league in 2021. (I knocked on wood, chill out Steelers fans.)

Bengals RB Chase Brown

Small sample size be damned…

Brown among 67 RBs with 15-plus targets last season:

• PFF receiving grade: 81.1 (No. 4)
• Yards per route run: 4.46 (No. 1)
• Targets per route run: 42.9% (No. 1)
• Passer rating when targeted: 132.2 (No. 2)
• Yards per reception: 11.1 (No. 1)

Literally no RB hit a faster top speed than Brown last season. The man can FLY.

Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown (30) makes a catch in the second quarter of the NFL Week 15 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Minnesota Vikings at PayCor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023.

Of course, the Bengals’ decision to bring in Zack Moss to replace Joe Mixon could be a sign that they still view Brown as more of a scat back as opposed to a featured option. Still, Brown’s status as an explosive pass-catching RB with the sort of size (5-foot-10, 209 pounds) to theoretically handle a bigger role makes him a stellar “FLEX with benefits” fantasy option capable of providing decent PPR-induced weekly production with the upside for so much more should he ever get a starting opportunity.

Titans RB Tyjae Spears

Only three running backs posted PFF grades north of 70.0 in rushing, receiving and pass blocking in 2023 (min. 100 carries):

• Derrick Henry
• Tyler Allgeier
• Tyjae Spears

The latter back made a habit of creating big plays during his impressive rookie campaign, but Spears ultimately only handled 15-plus touches on one occasion while working as Henry's backup. The absence of the Big Dog should bring out a bigger role, although we shouldn’t get too excited after Tennessee signed up to give Tony Pollard 21.75 million doll hairs over the next three seasons.

Spears’ size (5-foot-10, 201 pounds) might prevent a true workhorse role from emerging. That said: He has the pass-catching chops to thrive should he ever see something similar to what Austin Ekeler handled in Los Angeles over the years — this sort of pipe dream would be borderline erotic for fantasy purposes. 

Even if you’re unable to check out the total eclipse next Monday (April 8), I think everyone can agree that we learned a little something about space, fantasy football and maybe even ourselves (lol jk).

Hope you enjoyed: This will be the last Fantasy Life solar eclipse-related content until next time — which in continental America will be August 23, 2044.