In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bud Light:
You know what's nice? Not having to wait on the San Francisco 49ers to get a deal done with superstar tight end George Kittle. The two sides agreed to a four-year contract extension that's worth $76.4 million with $40 million in guaranteed money and ties Kittle to San Francisco through the 2029 season.
This is a great move for the 49ers and puts a little bit of ease in fantasy managers heading into 2025.
While Kittle is now the highest-paid tight end in NFL history, it's a great time to look at the tight end landscape across the NFL and a week after the NFL Draft to see where some of the rankings have changed …
Kittle Far From The Middle
Kendall: Sorry, Trey McBride. I know you were the highest-paid tight end for a hot second, but will it make you feel better to know that you're ahead of Kittle in fantasy rankings?
The top 3 tight ends for 2025 should be somewhat unanimous—Brock Bowers, McBride, and Kittle. I will say I was a little disappointed after the NFL Draft to see where some of these rookies ended up.
Starting with Tyler Warren, while it was almost the worst-kept secret in the NFL that the Colts were going to draft a tight end, it doesn't mean Warren is going to immediately put up Top-10 numbers. I expect Anthony Richardson to be the Week 1 starter, but unless he becomes a better passer (and fast) we aren't going to reach the heights of Warren's talent immediately. In 2024, Richardson ranked last among qualified QBs in completion percentage, off-target rate, and passer rating.
The same sentiment holds true for Colston Loveland, who was drafted with the 10th overall pick (and ahead of Warren). Not only does Caleb Williams need to improve, but Loveland is also competing now in a loaded offense. Between DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Cole Kmet, it won't be easy getting to a route rate that gives us the fantasy production we desperately want. I'm still in on both these players, but we shouldn't expect early returns.
Adam: I agree with Kendall on Warren and Loveland. It’s not the ideal landing spot for fantasy production in Year 1. Regardless of the quarterback in Indianapolis, the Colts will be run-first and at the bottom of the league in passing attempts. Ben Johnson believes Loveland fits the offense well, but there are a lot of options in the offense.
With that said, it doesn’t take much to be a TE1 because the bar is low. Zach Ertz finished as a Top 12 tight end last season in PPR with 61 catches for 610 yards and 6 TDs through 16 games. David Njoku had 64 catches for 505 yards with 5 TDs, and Pat Freiermuth had 57 catches for 568 yards with 6 TDs. Those stats aren’t impressive and would it be surprising if Warren or Loveland come close to those numbers?
If the Bears offense is as good as some think, Loveland could score 5-7 TDs. If the price of either rookie is a TE2, it’s worth taking the shot as a backup tight end in a format where you draft two at the position.
IN THIS NEWSLETTER, WE USE A LOT OF ADP NUMBERS. Where are we getting all of that data? We have a page on our site that’s constantly being updated and allows you to sort by platform, format, etc. It’s good old-fashioned (but very modern and cutting-edge) ADP fun! 🫵🏻 👇🏻
CURRENT ADPs FROM A BUNCH OF DIFFERENT PLACES!
For Your Eyes and Ears
While Reading is Fundamental, who doesn’t enjoy the occasional video show or podcast? (You? OK, well … just scroll to the next section)
For everyone else, here are some of our favorites from this week—the debut of our dynasty show, a heavy helping of the Jags, and Dwain and Ian try to guess the ADPs of some newly drafted rookies.
Dynasty SuperFlex Mock Draft
Jake Trowbridge joined me (Kendall) for a Dynasty SuperFlex mock draft. You know Jake for his incredible short-form videos but he is a dynasty GENIUS.
State of the Jaguars
Cooterdoodle’s “State of the Team” videos won the FSWA award for “Best Short Form Content.” Have a look at her Jags take and immediately see why.
🎧 Guess the ADP 🎧
Ian and Dwain discussed where they were ranking rookies and tried to forecast their ADP in our most popular Fantasy Life podcast episode of the week.
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An Accuracy King Releases His Rookie Ranks
Have you noticed a trend this week? ROOKIE RANKS EVERYWHERE! The beauty of having several rankers is you get several opinions. And then the beauty of having several opinionated rankers is we can ask them to write columns and expound on their work. All to benefit us.
Rob “Waz” Waziak is one of the most accurate fantasy football rankers. And he wrote this week about where he has the rookies … and why.
Is this fancy box of four players not enough for you? Go check out all of Waz’s ranks —rookies, veterans, possibly-retiring-QBs-who-make-you-google-Tartarian-Empire —for free right here. 👇👇👇
CHECK OUT WAZ’S RANKINGS (THEY’RE FREE!)
Boring Veterans, Falling Knives, and Steep Cliffs
We’re talking, of course, about best ball advice. And your Friendly Neighborhood Pete is already weekending, but left us with some sage advice to ponder as we jump into “early” best ball drafts (although if you read this newsletter, maybe it’s just regular best ball season for you).
In his latest trends column, Pete gives us “the only fresh produce available right now for value hounds”—veterans nobody wants:
Isiah Pacheco—I hate to say it because I really don't like drafting Pacheco, but the draft broke perfectly for him. Elijah Mitchell and the rookie Brashard Smith still lurk, but Pacheco is going to get another crack at being the lead back.
Trey Benson—I thought there was a chance the Cardinals might make another RB investment in this draft, but Benson's role looks secure as the clear handcuff behind the 29-year-old James Conner.
Javonte Williams—It seems hard to believe after we did this exact same song and dance with Rico Dowdle last year, but once again the starting Cowboys RB is available in the double-digit rounds (12-round, specifically). I prefer the rookie Jaydon Blue cost-adjusted, but Williams deserves some stabs.
And here it is in picture form!
For "the “falling knives” and cliff dropoffs, Pete’s full column is up now!
ARE ANY ROOKIE VALUES OUT THERE?
Around the Watercooler
As you ponder who you will root for in the Kentucky Derby tomorrow …
📊 Cam Ward drops to 5th in our latest SuperFlex Dynasty Mock (by the great Jake Trowbridge)
❤️🤬 Matthew’s back with a post-draft Love/Hate.
📰 Ready to get hurt again with MHJ?
🤔 Don’t forget Jake Ferguson come draft day.
🍻 We need to talk … about fantasy football winners post-NFL Draft.
👀 Our Best Ball Guide got a refresh, just in time to jump in all those draft rooms.
🌐 Fleaflicker is giving Travis Hunter an “apply to” option, where you can pick all of his points, only WR points, only IDP points, etc.
🐎 Speaking of the Derby, here’s how every horse got its name. “Sandman” is a Metallica tribute … via Mariano Rivera.
