Brock Bowers Futures Bet and Receiving Prop for 2025 NFL Season
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Hims:
MLB’s in full swing and processing 15 games simultaneously every night has somehow again become second nature. It’s truly amazing how much baseball gets played in a regular season when you think about it.
Back To The Futures
And even though I never take my eyes off the diamond for more than five minutes, I spent the entire day dreaming about the gridiron. The NFL schedule is out, immediately creating a tidal wave of robust futures markets nationwide.
Combing through our expert projections in combination with my handy-dandy spreadsheets, I came up with a couple of player props today that I absolutely love.
For my baseball heads, we didn’t forget you—make sure to scroll all the way to the bottom for a sneak peek at today’s advanced SP matrix.
Fantasy Life Player Projections (WOOHOO!)
As someone who takes a lot of pride in progenerating my own work, it’s important to not be totally stubborn and have somewhere to turn for help since MLB eats up so much of my time. After the incredible NFL betting season we posted last season, I’m fully on-board with the incomparable work being done by Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman, our very own conglomerate of gurus here at Fantasy Life.
CHECK OUT OUR 2025 PLAYER PROJECTIONS
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Hot takes 🔥 , hotter takes 🔥🔥🔥, and the latest NFL rumors …
🔮 Is it ever too early to look at Week 1 NFL Betting Odds? Nope.
🔥 Brock Purdy got PAID and now look at his Weeks 15-17 schedule.
🤔 Which RB ran for over 1,000 yards and scored less than 5 TDs? Plus more NFL trivia.
💬 We’ve all at some point been a part of this league chat.
👀 And would you believe some are looking ahead to Week 17? Thank you Best Ball Bros.
🏈🔮Look Into My NFL Crystal Ball—The Tet Offensive 🔮🏈
THE BET: Tetairoa McMillan Over 795.5 Receiving Yards (-110) MGM
Had you told me 12 months ago I’d be this stoked about betting the over on a Carolina Panthers offensive bet, there’s a good chance I’d recommend you stop skipping your medication. Well, ranges of outcome are real and maybe (just maybe) 32 front offices displayed an air of competence in making Bryce Young a consensus top-two pick after all.
After a historically bad 2023 campaign in which the black cats finished dead last in points/game (13.9), yards/game (259.3), and yards/play (4.1), abandoning ship on CAR felt warranted. Not to combine adages for my own personal gain when it comes to Young—but prospect growth isn’t linear, and when someone tells you who they are, listen.
All bettors/traders get things wrong, yet it’s the ability to properly capitulate and course correct in the presence of new compelling evidence. Looks like I jumped the shark trying to prematurely bury Young Year 1. Lesson learned.
Whether grinding tape or clawing through spreadsheets to counter data, the furtherance is undeniable. You won’t need an expert technical analyst at Morgan Stanley to read the trajectory of Young’s 2024 EPA/Attempt chart (image above). Very impressive stuff.
So here we have an ascending offense in desperate need of playmaking on the outside—which Carolina decisively addressed by drafting 6-foot-4 former Wildcat Tetairoa McMillan eighth overall. Could there be a better contextual environment for a rookie WR to excel? We’ve all heard the narrative that first-year wideouts break out in the second half. However, a decent amount of that has to do with injuries clearing a pathway to playing time. There’s a roughly zero percent chance David Moore is stealing routes outside the hashmarks from Tet in 2025.
McMillan has got the tools to succeed out of the box, popping in all the right places on both Dwain’s Super Model as well as Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception profile.
McMillan should easily earn the lion’s share of WR1 snaps based on draft capital alone—and if he plays a full season will need to average just 47 yards/game to cash the over. Nothing like a nice, low bar.
Have I made a strong enough argument to wrap up with a little appeal to authority?
Hard not to be thrilled when our very own resident projection pessimist and wet blanket Matthew Freedman is over with us—I kid, but it’s important at least one team member stays grounded.
Both Dwain and Freedman project Tet to eclipse +910 yards for an aggregate of 944. Let’s go!
🏈🏆NFL Futures—Brock And Roll🏆🏈
THE BET: Brock Bowers Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-110) DK
Always the kiss of death in sports betting, let me start by saying this line feels off by at least a few percentage points. Brock Bowers is coming off a season screaming superstar for years to come and I’m buying whatever it is he’s selling. If a 1,149-yard year from a TE sounds outlandish, that’s because it is. Only two rookies had ever topped the 1,000-yard milestone (Kyle Pitts in 2021 and Mike Ditka in 1961, and he accomplished the feat in just 14 games). And before Bowers’ 112 catches in 2024, no one at the position hauled in more than 86 balls over a debut season.
I’d be willing to accept any arguments surrounding natural regression, but 17% feels too heavy for me—especially when considering the general offensive overhaul out in Sin City. The Raiders were so bad on offense in terms of efficiency last year … (crowd) How bad were they?
- 18.2 Points Per Game: 29th
- -0.12 EPA Per Play: T-31st
- 4.8 Yards Per Play: T-29th
- 42.5% Success Rate: 28th
- 26.4 Yards Per Drive: 30th
- 2:36 Time Of Possession Per Drive: 29th
- 1.6 First Downs Per Drive: T-31st
- 1.6 Points Per Drive: T-30th
The Raiders finally understood the assignment, acquiring an actual NFL quarterback this offseason in Geno Smith after rolling out the underwhelming triumvirate of Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder in 2024. Plus, they drafted top rookie Ashton Jeanty from the six-hole with the sole intention of improving those putrid efficiency metrics highlighted above. The one place on the roster left untouched? You guessed it, the pass-catcher room.
Bowers’ route tree resembles that of a top-flight wide receiver (image above), evidenced by a variety of high-value routes at maximum volume. Bowers ran ~4% more routes than anyone else at the position in 2024 and should cruise over 951 receiving yards as the main engine in a passing game benefitting from extra attention being paid to the backfield.
(FOR THE RECORD, IT’S ANOTHER PROP OUR IN-HOUSE PROJECTION EXPERTS EXPECT TO WIN)
🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮
Today’s SP Sheet
For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
