Jonathan Fuller Jonathan Fuller runs down the latest trends in his dynasty fantasy football diary, covering players to target and sleepers.

We're in the thick of rookie draft season. With several rookie drafts done and a handful starting this weekend, it is a great time to zoom out and take stock of what I have noticed so far.

Travis Hunter and RJ Harvey first-round Wild Cards

In the weeks since the NFL Draft we have seen a strong consensus ranking emerge in dynasty rookie drafts. Of course, Ashton Jeanty is the 1.01 everywhere but beyond that Omarion Hampton, Tetairoa McMillan, and Cam Ward (in superflex) don't have much variance in where they go. Even in the second half of the first round, you can probably bet on TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson, and Matthew Golden going off the board within a 2-3 pick range in almost every draft. 

In the handful of rookie drafts I have done so far it has been Travis Hunter and RJ Harvey have been the players with the highest variance of where they are selected. They are both first-round picks to be sure, but I have seen Hunter go as high as 2nd overall and as late as 8th overall. I have to assume that some dynasty managers are worried about him playing on defense, but all signs point to the Jaguars viewing him as a WR first. Hunter is a special football player and I want those guys on my team. Worrying about snap counts strikes me as playing too conservatively in a game where upside is critical.

Harvey is the classic case of deciding how much to value a landing spot for dynasty purposes. For redraft leagues, he was easily one of the biggest winners of the NFL Draft. However, lots of analysts didn't view him as one of the top RB talents in this class which has caused him to fall behind players like Kaleb Johnson and Matthew Golden in some of my rookie drafts. Pre-draft evaluations aren't meaningless, but when an NFL team gives a player a major vote of confidence by taking him earlier than expected it is worth taking another look.

There are plenty of things to like in his profile, most notably his breakaway rush rate and missed tackles forced, which were both top 10 in college football last season. Despite being a smaller back, he still handled 240+ rush attempts in back-to-back seasons, which is a positive indicator for his ability to stand up to the punishment of an NFL season. 

Harvey is also an above-average receiving back, which should fit perfectly alongside Bo Nix in a Sean Payton offense. It also helps that Harvey's competition for touches—Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime—haven't looked like anything special in their NFL opportunities. The Broncos will certainly use some sort of committee, but Harvey has a good chance to consolidate a lot of the high-value touches which could make him a fantasy superstar as early as 2025. He should be the 1.07 in most rookie drafts and I will be actively trying to trade up for him when he falls beyond that pick.

Confessions of a QB-Needy Team

It's a tough year to be thin at the QB position in superflex leagues. Usually there are at least 3-4 rookies we can get excited about. This year there is basically one, and even he isn't all that exciting of a prospect. 

Almost by default, Cam Ward has to go with a top 5 (usually top 3) pick of superflex rookie drafts. He is virtually guaranteed to start all 17 games (assuming health) and showed enough playmaking ability in college for fantasy managers to talk themselves into Ward being worth a top pick in rookie drafts. What I found out in one of my first rookie drafts was that I just can't bring myself to take Ward over the top RBs and WRs in this class.

In the leagues where I need help at the QB position I have decided I am not going to prioritize getting Ward. If I can take him fifth overall that's fine but I don't want to pass on my top four (Jeanty, Hunter, Hampton, and McMillan) to address a positional need. I would rather trade for a competent, but low-ceiling veteran QB (think Geno Smith or Matthew Stafford) and draft the rookies I believe have league-winning potential.

There's a chance Ward will prove me wrong like he has so many doubters throughout his career, but I prefer to bet on the rookies with better profiles who also got excellent draft capital. 

Favorite Late-Round Targets

You probably have your own opinions about the rookies being drafted in the first few rounds, but if you haven't had a chance to research this year's rookie sleepers I've got you covered. Below are my favorite targets who usually go in the fourth round or later of rookie drafts.

Tahj Brooks—RB, Bengals

Brooks is a bigger back who tested well at the NFL Combine and accumulated more than 1,600 scrimmage yards in both of his final two seasons at Texas A&M. If he had gotten better draft capital he would have been a very intriguing prospect. Instead, he fell to pick 193 and his rookie draft stock suffered as a result. 

What makes him interesting to me is the college production and landing spot. He showed he was capable of handling a large workload and producing on it. Brooks also provides a different style of running than Chase Brown or Samaje Perine, which could allow him to carve out a role early on. Brooks profiles as a potential replacement for the Zack Moss role if the veteran is ineffective or not fully healthy.

The hope is that Brooks has a shot to learn early-down and goal-line work as a complement to Chase Brown in one of the NFL's most high-powered offenses. That would create meaningful TD upside for the rookie and makes him a worthwhile selection late in rookie drafts. 

Jaylin Lane—WR, Commanders

For being a fourth-round pick, I haven't seen much discussion of Jaylin Lane. In case you aren't familiar, Lane spent three years at Middle Tennessee State before transferring to Virginia Tech. His college production wasn't jaw dropping, but there are a few things I like about his prospect profile.

First off, Lane is a tremendous athlete and absolutely crushed the NFL Combine. He's very dangerous with the ball in his hands, as evidenced by the fact that he was one of the better punt returners in college football last year. He also had 32 rush attempts in 24 games at Virginia Tech. This versatile skillset should fit well in Kliff Kingsbury's system and reminds me a bit of Deebo Samuel, who the Commanders just happened to acquire this offseason. 

Field Yates also identified Lane as a rookie who could make an impact in 2025. His case was primarily focused on Lane's role on special teams, but that should ensure he is active on game days and give him a path to earning more opportunity if he proves to be a dynamic playmaker on an NFL field. I'm also not very impressed by the Commanders WR depth behind Terry McLaurin and Samuel, so I like taking a swing on an athletic rookie who has a realistic path to opportunity in his first season.

Tory Horton—WR, Seahawks

Another late-round WR, Horton was a popular sleeper pick before the NFL Draft. He didn't get the draft capital his backers had hoped for, but his profile and landing spot make him something worth keeping an eye on.

Horton has good size, measuring in at 6-foot-2.5" and 196 pounds, and he ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine with a 37.5" vertical, too. At Colorado State he recorded back-to-back seasons with more than 1,100 receiving yards, but then suffered a season-ending injury in 2025. He appears to have recovered well, though, running routes at his pro day and testing at the NFL Combine.

I was a fan of Horton in the pre-draft process and although the fifth-round draft capital isn't great it also isn't terrible. What I find interesting is that Horton has a very different skillset from the Seahawks' top two receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. If anything, Horton appears most similar to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who doesn't exactly have his role locked if the rookie shows some juice.

Both Kupp and MVS are essentially short-term rentals for Seattle so the depth chart is fairly open behind JSN. I like Horton's chances to earn playing time in 2025, and if he impresses like I think he can we might be talking about him as a starting WR in the Seattle offense heading into 2026. 

Rankings Movers—Trending Up

George Pickens

The biggest news in the NFL over the last couple weeks was the trade that sent Pickens to the Dallas Cowboys. Ever since the Steelers acquired DK Metcalf rumors had been swirling that Pickens could be on the move, and this is one of the better landing spots from a fantasy standpoint. 

Yes, he will be behind CeeDee Lamb in the target pecking order, but with no other target dominant players on the roster I don't think we have to worry about volume here. The Cowboys attempted 138 more passes than the Steelers did last season and that spread will probably be similar in 2025.

I also view Pickens as a player who can benefit from the attention that Lamb will command. The more often opposing defenses have to leave him in one-on-one matchups against someone who isn't their best cover corner the better. 

The only concern is that Pickens has yet to agree to an extension with the Cowboys so there is still a chance he moves on after this season. If that happens, his next landing spot might not be as fantasy friendly as the Dallas offense, but at least it would be with a team that he chooses and makes a major financial commitment to him.

Brenton Strange

A quiet veteran winner this offseason, Brenton Strange looks set to be the clear TE1 for the Jaguars. Evan Engram has moved on to Denver and the Jags didn't make any significant additions at the position, a major vote of confidence in Strange.

After having minimal involvement his rookie year, Strange had a real role in 2024. He had 40 catches for 411 yards and in the 8 games that Evan Engram missed, Strange averaged 5 targets per game. Only four of those contests came with Trevor Lawrence under center, but Strange did catch both of his TDs in that stretch.

With an offensive-minded HC in Liam Coen and two dynamic young WRs on the outside, Strange should be able to carve out a nice role in an offense that is trending up. He's one of my favorite cheap targets in dynasty leagues.

Rankings Movers—Trending Down

Chris Olave

This is a difficult situation because there is no denying Chris Olave is a very talented player. Unfortunately for him (and his dynasty managers) Olave may be in the worst offensive environment in the league. The Saints have a brutal salary cap situation, just lost Derek Carr to retirement, and are expected to start a second round rookie at QB.

The concern isn't just about the situation either, as Olave has suffered some serious head injuries in his career so far. These injuries raised questions about his long-term future in the NFL and put him at a higher risk of missing extended time if he suffers another concussion. Injuries are the worst part of football and generally we don't want to let them play too big of a role in our evaluation, but in dynasty leagues we at least need to be aware when a player has elevated risks.

When he's on the field, Olave should still be a valuable fantasy asset, but his ceiling outcomes have been lowered due to the team situation. His risk-reward profile has fundamentally changed over the past year, which has rightfully impacted his value in dynasty leagues. 

Jalen McMillan

One of the more surprising picks in the first round of the NFL Draft was the Buccaneers selecting Emeka Egbuka. Tampa Bay seemingly had a deep WR room before spending the 19th overall pick on Egbuka, but the Bucs viewed him as one of the best players in this class and they decided the value was too great to pass on. I actually don't hate the move from a real-football perspective, with Evans aging and Godwin returning from injury, but it was a major blow to the fantasy value of Jalen McMillan.

McMillan broke out down the stretch in 2024 scoring 7 TDs and going over 50 receiving yards in every game from Weeks 14-18. Despite that great run, he still posted only 1.18 YPRR for the season and perhaps didn't do enough to lock himself into the WR3 job for the Bucs this season. 

McMillan looked like an ascending young player just a few months ago, but now we need to adjust our expectations for his production in 2025 and beyond. This directly impacts his value in the dynasty trade market. You might have been able to get a mid-2nd round pick for him prior to the NFL Draft and now that is probably a mid-3rd round rookie pick at best.