Can You Trust Jaylen Waddle in Fantasy Football 2025?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog:
Fantasy football is a fickle game, and we're not just talking about how fantasy managers need to constantly adapt—we get tested on our prior beliefs every single year at this time.
Let's play a game … think of a fantasy player who burned you last season, you know the one who made you SWEAR you would never play fantasy again. Now that you have the name, tell me, are you willing to go back again?
What if I told you that their ADP was drastically cheaper than in years prior …
And the cycle continues!
The test that many fantasy managers face during early drafts is the ADP discounts on certain players and whether the risk is already baked into their current price.
Yes, they didn't lead you to a fantasy championship, but was the logic of that draft pick sound? Did the environment not allow them to fully showcase their talents? What changed in the offseason that could open a better runway to fantasy success in 2025?
And the biggest question: Is it worth it?
Let's break down some players who burned fantasy managers last season and see if their discounted ADP might be worth a second chance.
Chris Olave (ADP: WR36)
Unfortunately, Chris Olave finished as the WR93 last season after going in Round 2 of fantasy drafts. The risk with Olave is not only the quarterback play, with Tyler Shough looking like the potential starter, but also his unfortunate string of concussions. He started only eight games last season, but his WR36 price tag right now has that risk baked in, especially since he has no competition for targets besides Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara.
C.J. Stroud (ADP: QB18)
C.J. Stroud did not live up to his expectations during his sophomore campaign. He was going off the board as the fifth quarterback selected in fantasy drafts (early in Round 5), and he crashed and burned with an overall QB18 finish and averaged just 13 fantasy points per game. Stroud was sacked 52 times last season and pressured on 38.6% of his dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. I think Stroud's true outcome for this year is somewhere in the middle of his 2023 and 2024 seasons, but QB18 is the floor.
Jaylen Waddle (ADP: WR32)
For the first time in his career, Jaylen Waddle did not reach 1,000 yards, and he is coming off a disappointing 2024 season. Tua Tagovailoa was unable to stay healthy, and the offense focused heavily on De'Von Achane and Jonnu Smith, leaving Waddle with only 744 yards and two touchdowns. Waddle also struggles with staying healthy, but his current Underdog price has him being drafted around other receivers like Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison.
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The Skeleton Key To Best Ball Success Is Here
The best ball drafting season is essentially four months—May, June, July, and August—which means we are already a quarter of the way through.
With 70-plus drafts under his belt, Pete Overzet finally feels like he has a firm grasp on the ADP landscape and a plan of attack for this next quarter of drafts in June.
Now, he wants to make the case for building out both three late-round QB and three late-round TE builds …
“A structural strategy is ultimately only as good as the performances from the individual players. And in 2024, the Elite TEs bombed. Outside of George Kittle and Trey McBride, the other elite tight ends going in the first six rounds of drafts destroyed advance rates and playoff hopes (Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and Dalton Kincaid).
Drafters have responded accordingly in 2025. Brock Bowers and McBride are the only tight ends in the top 50 picks. And Kittle, who goes in the early 5th round, is the only other TE with an "Elite TE" price tag.
At the start of drafting season, I was aggressively selecting Bowers and McBride at any opportunity. But then I realized something … I almost always liked my teams better when I took a running back or wide receiver in Round 2 as opposed to an elite tight end.
I noticed the same thing is true for the Elite QBs. This resulted in an extremely weird dynamic where I realized I loved the individual click of those Elite QBs and TEs in the moment, but not the end result of the team.”
To understand why Elite TE and Elite QB builds often feel gross in 2025, we have to understand where the value pockets of the draft are and then work backwards.
This year, Pete has uncovered two extreme late-round value pockets for both the QB and TE positions … ⬇️
ARE THESE QBs/TEs THE BIGGEST STEALS ON THE BOARD?
Three Reasons To BUY Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams' disappointing rookie campaign was mostly just relative to his "generational" billing as the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick. There were still plenty of highs; the former Heisman winner is certainly blessed with some special arm talent and can evade pass rushers with the best of them.
Still, there were too many times when the easy was hard, and negative plays were far too frequent, particularly when it came to avoiding sacks.
So why will 2025 be any different? Well …
- The scheme: Ben Johnson is anyone's idea of a top-five playcaller and oversaw the league's highest-scoring offense from 2022 to 2024.
- Offensive line upgrades: Chicago replaced the interior of its offensive line, signing Falcons C Drew Dalman and trading for former Rams G Jonah Jackson and Chiefs G Joe Thuney. PFF graded Dalman and Thuney as top-10 players at their position last season, while Jackson started 25 games with Johnson during their final two years together in Detroit.
- More juice in the passing game: It's not fair to say DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen were anything close to a bad WR trio, but it's also hard to deny the 2025 Bears have managed to make a strength even stronger. The departure of free agent Keenan Allen (turned 33 in April) was met by spending the 39th overall pick on Missouri playmaker Luther Burden. Additionally, stud Michigan TE Colston Loveland was added with the team's 10th overall pick.
The Bears have turned every stone in an effort to make Williams' second season work far better than the first. And you know what? Ian Hartitz is buying it … to an extent …
Around the Watercooler
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.
👀 OTAs are here, which means it’s a good time for a dynasty rankings update.
📝 Speaking of dynasty … make sure you’re evaluating your teams honestly.
🚀 ICYMI: QB projections are live. That Caleb Williams ceiling is juicy.
🔮 Is Justin Fields a top-10 fantasy QB? The crystal ball speaks …
📈 How high is too high on Brian Thomas Jr.? You be the judge.
🚨 A trade on the horizon? This Pro Bowler could be on the move.
🏒 Xavier Legette at his first NHL game is all kinds of awesome.
