The Miami Dolphins have been making headlines over the past few days with their moves. I can't help but think about the 2011 hit movie Moneyball, which starred Brad Pitt as former Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane.

When the manager, Art Howe, refused to play a lineup more indicative of Beane's radical vision, Beane began trading players so that Howe had no other choice but to put the players that he believed could do the job like he wanted it done in the lineup.

Jonnu Smith and Darren Waller Traded - Fantasy Football Fallout for Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers

Now imagine spending a few hundred million dollars on speedsters at receiver and a quarterback to get them the football. Then you see it work, and the offense becomes one of the best in the league; you're making the playoffs. You feel like your vision is being followed.

All of a sudden, the offense changes, and the Ferraris and Lamborghinis that you watched lead your team to the playoffs are used as decoys while the head coach coordinates an offense that throws a bunch of check-downs and targets the tight end heavily, while the team struggles for wins.

In 2024, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier must have felt like Beane watching his tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De'Von Achane finish the season as the leading and third-leading receiver. Meanwhile, his two top-dollar receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, were reduced to WR2 and WR4. That's a far cry from 2023, when both guys were tops in receiving in an offense that was the best passing offense in the league. In 2024 that passing offenses plummeted to 15th. 

Miami HC Mike McDaniels left Grier with no other choice than to Billy Beane the situation. He traded Jonnu Smith away to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a package that included Jaylen Ramsey and a future seventh-round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick and a future fifth-round pick. He then replaced Smith by trading a 2026 sixth-round selection to the New York Giants, for a 2027 conditional seventh-round pick and retired tight end Darren Waller, who will end his retirement to join the team.

 

In my mind, these moves were Grier's way of expressing that he wants the offense to return to its 2023 quality, one that was run through and dominated by the Formula 1 speed. Hill just beat professional sprinters in a 100-meter race. His time was a ridiculous 10.10 seconds. That's the person this passing offense was meant to flow through.

McDaniels may have forgotten his way because of recent injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, but he can't live in fear, and he can't run his offense through the tight end because there is no longer a tight end to run it through. Instead, he needs to get back to calling an offense that prioritizes getting the ball in the hands of a home run hitter every play. Let's look at the fantasy ramifications of Miami's busy week. 

Die on the HILL

This is definitely a win for Tyreek Hill, who many believed was falling off after last season's performance. This summer has sent a different message, and now with Smith gone, his targets may return to their normal abundance.

When he arrived in Miami, Hill was given back-to-back 170 target seasons, and he rewarded the offense and fantasy managers, with consecutive 1,700-yard seasons. In 2024, his targets dropped by almost 50, and to nobody's surprise, so did his numbers. His 10.6 half-PPR PPG average in 2024 was the worst output since his rookie season. 

His current consensus fantasy football ADP has him as a Round 3 selection, and if he's there to pick in the third round, then run your selection to the podium. I'm not letting him get out of the second round.

Yes, it was a bad season for him and where managers drafted him, but it was not a bad season. I could also see legit regression to the mean, which would mean improved numbers for Hill. Will they return to the excess we enjoyed during the ‘22 and ‘23 seasons? Maybe, but it is difficult to predict that level of play. It should be easy to predict a better season than we were treated to in 2024. If they landed somewhere between 2023 and 2024, I think we all would be happy with that.

Not just Waddle-ing Around!

2024 was not only a fall off for Hill, but Jaylen Waddle was equally affected. He had 21 fewer targets than he had in 2023 and 34 fewer than in 2022. His 12.8 yards per reception was the worst since his rookie season, and his two touchdowns were the worst of his career.

He went from a more consistent feast with a little famine type of fantasy play to simply famine. In 2024, he only eclipsed 10 points in Half PPR formats three times. In 2023, that number was seven, and in 2022 it was 10. It was so bad in 2024 that people were actually dropping Waddle for players like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

A condensed offense was never going to benefit Waddle, who, like the Dixie Chicks' song says, needs “wide open spaces” (I know you wish you could hear me singing right now. Maybe at a karaoke bar one day). He needs the area to move and unleash his speed. Waddle and Hill work in tandem on the field. Since they both possess the ability to blow the top off the secondary and also run after the catch, one guy can stretch the field while the other grabs a short to intermediate pass on the move, and then it's “boogity, boogity, boogity let's go racing boys!” There's no reason why Waddle can't return to the form of his first three seasons with his regular targets and a little more space to work.

His ADP of 57 hovers around George Pickens and Chris Godwin, which means bottom of the fourth round or top of the fifth. It's not bad company for Waddle, but what I would be bullish on is that nuclear capability that only guys like he and Hill possess.

The Steelers “Jonnu” Weapon: Will They Stand “Pat”?

It's difficult to figure out what type of offense this Steelers team will have in 2025. The immediate thing to note for fantasy managers is that Smith is not joining a team without a tight end. Pat Freiermuth is still there.

The first question to answer is: Are they going to split reps and therefore split targets?

If so, it could devalue both players. It was always going to be difficult for Smith to recreate what was for him a magical season, but if he is fighting for snaps, that becomes practically impossible in a platoon situation. Yes, Steelers OC Arthur Smith loves to run 12 personnel, but one of those spots will likely be occupied by Darnell Washington. He is the 6-foot-7 primary blocking tight end who, according to reports, has shed 20 pounds in hopes of being a more effective pass catcher.

Can Smith carve out a major role in a revamped offense, with a quarterback who is likely taking his final lap? Of course, it's possible. It's also more likely that he ends up assuming a role where all three guys mixed together would make one hell of a fantasy tight end.

Smith is currently being drafted TE10 ahead of guys like David Njoku, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, and Dallas Goedert. That will likely change quickly. Freiermuth is going as TE19, which is probably a more realistic place to draft Smith. This might be a wait-and-see situation for me. I'd grab either at the right time for value as my TE2, stash them away, and monitor their utilization.

Wonder Waller

Former Giants TE Darren Waller must have found free time in the midst of getting his music career off the ground, because he's coming out of retirement to join Miami.

I actually spoke with him before he retired from the league before the 2024 season. He did not give me the impression that he was retiring because he could no longer perform. His 2023 statistics support that belief. In 11 games, he caught 52 passes for 552 yards and a touchdown. That was in an offense with multiple offensive line injuries and three different quarterbacks throwing him the football.

A year away from football could have brought a renewed vigor for the game and health. He will turn 33 at the beginning of the season, and if the athleticism is still evident, he could be effective. The difference is that he is not the contested catch receiver that Smith is, even as the bigger-bodied receiver. He will need more wide-open spaces.

If you are looking for a guy late in the draft to take a chance on, he would not be a bad choice, but don't start elevating him to a late mid-round selection, thinking you are going to outsmart your league.

Nothing Changes for De'Von Achane

If you are invested in Achane, this may make you want to buy more stock in the Dolphins top back. If the offense is indeed trying to get that old feeling back, remember the types of numbers the backs were putting up in that offense. The difference now is that Achane is the RB1. If Hill and Waddle are cooking, that will open up more opportunities for Achane to eat as a rusher and pass receiver.

He has been teetering on being a consensus first-round back. I have previously said that I was not sure about taking him that high, but now I'm reconsidering. If he gets some of those Jonnu Smith targets and the field is more open for him to rev up his Bugatti engine, he could be a 1000 rushing yard/800-receiving-yard running back.