Things were going rather awesome for the Vikings during the first 17 weeks of 2024. A 14-2 start culminated in a Week 18 winner-takes-all showdown with the Lions for both the NFC North and the conference's No. 1 seed … and the Vikings got smacked 31-9.

Sadly, things only got worse the following week when a trip to Los Angeles resulted in another three-score beatdown at the hands of the Rams.

The Vikings went from boasting a +122 point differential during the first 89% of their season to a -40 disparity during their two most important weeks. I'm not a Vikings fan, and that still hurts to write.

Glass-half-full view: This was still one of just six squads to boast a top-10 scoring offense and defense!

Minnesota Vikings in 2024:

  • Points per game: 25.4 (9th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.14 (11th)
  • EPA per rush: -0.12 (22nd)
  • Points per game against: 19.5 (5th)

Of course, things will look quite a bit different on the former side of the ball in 2025 now that J.J. McCarthy will be taking over for Sam Darnold under center. Throw in multiple big-dollar and/or early-round investments into both the offensive and defensive lines, and you have a team seemingly ready to (again) compete to be one of the best squads in the league.

This brings us to today's goal: Answering key (mostly fantasy-related) questions about the Vikings ahead of their 2025 season.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Vikings 2025 Fantasy Football Team Preview

Is J.J. McCarthy poised to be Kevin O'Connell's next great fantasy QB?

Let's take a quick trip down memory lane regarding KOC's history of enabling high-end fantasy QBs in Minnesota before diving into what makes J.J. McCarthy tick:

  • 2022: Kirk Cousins sets a new career high with 4,547 passing yards and finishes as the QB12 in fantasy points per game.
     
  • 2023: Cousins works as the QB6 before tearing his Achilles. Then, pastronaut Josh Dobbs ripped off three top-nine finishes before the wheels fell off. After that? Nick Mullens posted QB14, QB11, and QB5 finishes in his only three starts.
     
  • 2024: Long considered a monster bust, Sam Darnold accounts for 36 touchdowns on his way to working as the QB9 in fantasy points per game.

Not too shabby! Obviously, having one of the NFL's best WR duos in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison alongside stud TE T.J. Hockenson makes life easier for QBs of all shapes and sizes … so what happens when this group is met with a legit blue-chip prospect in the form of the 2024 NFL Draft's 10th overall pick?

Well, according to President of the J.J. McCarthy fan club/Fantasy Life draft expert Thor Nystrom, the ceiling here might be pretty damn high considering the prospect profile:

“In 2023, McCarthy won a national title as a 20-year-old third-year junior in a 12-personnel pro-style offense for a sitting NFL HC (Jim Harbaugh) who called McCarthy the best player in last year’s draft and the greatest collegiate quarterback in Michigan history. McCarthy is a good athlete, with the sixth-fastest 3-cone at the NFL Combine and a reported 4.48 40 at Michigan. And he has a big-league arm, with a 61 mph max-velocity throw at the Combine that fell one mph under the record. Those things work in conjunction with one another on the field.”

The point about McCarthy's athleticism could wind up being a solid resource in fantasy land. While McCarthy only averaged 4.2 fantasy points per game from rushing in his last two collegiate seasons, his efficiency on scrambles (9.3 yards per pop) was actually superior to guys like Caleb Williams, Jalen Milroe, and Drake Maye.

Yes, betting heavily on McCarthy before he's played a regular-season snap carries some risk. Also, yes, some of the draft community's sharpest analysts believe McCarthy would have been the first QB off the board in this year's draft ahead of Cam Ward and company. Throw that sort of talent inside an offense that has made a habit of supplying a top-tier supporting cast and …

Bottom line: … I'm higher on McCarthy than any of the Fantasy Life "expert" rankers. My QB17, I'm buying into the youth, talent, and most of all, the offensive environment over guys like Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, and Tua Tagovailoa, among others. I get this isn't exactly the biggest endorsement in the world, considering that's still just mid-tier QB2 status; just realize he's in the same tier as guys like Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence—that's the sort of upside we could be looking at here.

Are drafters underestimating Aaron Jones' upside as the lead back?

A-aron parlayed plenty of production as a rusher (255-1138-5) and receiver (51-408-2) into an RB20 finish in PPR points per game during his first year wearing purple. Those 306 touches were the most of his career.

And yet, it's tough to look at Jones' advanced numbers from last season and conclude that he was anything close to elite. The Vikings' 21st-ranked offensive line in rush yards *before* contact per carry didn't help matters; just realize Jones ranked 17th or worse in missed tackles forced per carry, explosive rush rate, yards after contact per carry, and successful rush rate alike among 31 qualified RBs.

31 years old next December, the history of RBs putting forward RB1-caliber seasons in fantasy land at this age is nearly non-existent. That doesn't mean Jones can't return usable fantasy value in the right environment; just realize it's almost a certainty that we've seen the best ball of 33's career already.

This brings us to one of the Vikings' marquee offseason additions: Ex-49ers RB Jordan Mason, who made the absolute most out of his opportunities as a rusher with Christian McCaffrey banged up last season. Seriously: Only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley had more rushing yards than Mason during the first eight weeks of 2024.

Third in Next-Gen Stats' rushing yards over expected per carry, Mason finds himself in elite company when looking at some of his advanced rushing metrics.

A midseason A/C joint sprain and December high-ankle sprain prevented Mason from putting forward an encore during the second half of the season; either way, kudos to the third-year talent for making the most out of his opportunities and putting some pretty great plays on film.

The team's shuffling on the offensive line isn't guaranteed to yield better results, but at least they're trying in the form of former Colts G Will Fries (5 years, $88 million) and C Ryan Kelly (2 years, $18 million) as well as first-round G Donovan Jackson. This now stands as the league's fourth-most expensive group of big uglies in terms of 2025 dollars.

Bottom line: O'Connell has openly spoken about how getting Jones back into more of a "1A/1B backfield structure" can bring out the best of the eight-year veteran. And yet, even a little reduction in touches leaves plenty of room for Jones to produce some fireworks at his affordable RB28 ADP. Our rankers seem to agree, as each has him inside the position's top 26—he's a great zero-RB target for managers prioritizing WRs and an elite QB or TE at the top of the draft.

As for Mason: It's possible he carves out some standalone value if given double-digit touches per game and a goal line role–something KOC has already hinted at. Now, his RB34 ADP (pick 105) is a bit pricey if that FLEX-level role doesn't come to fruition; more pure handcuffs like Trey Benson (RB43, 141), Ray Davis (RB46, 147), and Tyler Allgeier (RB48, 153) are quite a bit cheaper. Still, like those other backs, Mason would instantly be in the weekly upside RB2 conversation should his team's starter miss any game action.

Should both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison be prioritized in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes?

We won't spend too much time on the Jettas part of this equation. Short answer: Yes, the WR2 in career PPR points per game … ever … is locked in as Kevin O'Connell's undisputed No. 1 pass-game option–a role which has yielded a 17-game average of 169 targets. He's the fourth overall player in the Fantasy Life rankings and someone who could even be due for some positive regression of sorts, considering nobody racked up more defensive pass interference yards (171) last season.

That brings us to Addison, who overcame August and September ankle injuries to improve upon his already stellar rookie campaign. His nose for the end zone has truly been amazing: Addison's 19 receiving TDs are tied for the fifth most during the first two seasons of their career since 1998. This is pretty special company!

Naturally, this has led to plenty of booms in fantasy land. Wanna hear the sort of cool, arbitrary cutoff offseason stat that can take a lonely fantasy analyst from six to midnight in a hurry? Last season, Addison scored the fifth-most PPR points of any WR during Weeks 9-17, just behind his friend Justin Jefferson.

Whether it be crispy double-moves, YAC goodness, or diving catches, Addison made a LOT of impressive plays during his age-22 season.

Just two problems:

  1. Addison's target ceiling will always be a bit capped while playing the Robin to Jefferson's Batman. This is reflected in the Fantasy Life Projections, which have the Vikings' top-two WRs earning 145 and 94 targets, respectively.
     
  2. There's still potential for Addison to face suspension stemming from last July's DUI charge. Fantasy football legal expert (and actual lawyer) Drew Davenport believes a truncated 1-2 game suspension is firmly in play for this season, but then again, legal systems can move quite slowly at times, so a prolonged trial could ultimately lead to (another) push to next year.

The reigning WR30 and WR23 in PPR points per game, Addison remains a good bet to supply upside WR3 numbers…if he's on the field.

Bottom line: Draft Jefferson as a top-five fantasy asset with all the confidence in the world, while Addison is firmly in the mid-tier WR3 conversation and someone I prefer over less-proven options with similar ADPs like Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, and Matthew Golden. If we've learned one thing from the KOC experience over the past three seasons, it's to trust the upside of this passing game.

Will T.J. Hockenson post elite numbers an extra year removed from a knee injury?

The longtime stud TE didn't suit up until Week 9 last season and didn't score his first TD until the Vikings' ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Rams. Throw in a four-year low in receiving yards per game (45.5) and 8.7 PPR points per contest (TE17), and it's fair to wonder exactly how much upside the soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran still has.

Then again, we are just, you know, one singular season removed from Hockenson working as the TE2 in PPR points per game (14.6). Now, those numbers are a bit inflated from Jefferson missing essentially eight games during the middle of the season …

Hockenson's 2023 numbers with and without Justin Jefferson:

  • Per-game with Jefferson (7 games): 7.1 targets, 53.6 yards, 12.8 PPR points
  • Without (8 games): 9.6 targets, 73.1 yards, 16.4 PPR points

Look, 12.8 PPR points per game from a TE is still a solid number. It would have been good for TE6 status in each of the past two years. That's good! Albeit, maybe not the sort of non-injury-induced ceiling worth chasing TOO early in drafts.

Bottom line: The TE5 in early ADP, I've found myself usually going after top-six QBs, top-30 RBs, or top-48 WRs instead of going hard in the paint for Hockenson at his current price.

What makes Brian Flores' defensive scheme so unique?

Mostly, his tendency to blitz like an absolute madman. Flores is basically like Coach Bill Yoast from Remember the Titans when he declares his intention to blitz all night.

Flores' blitz rate on dropbacks by year:

  • 2024 (Vikings): 38.6% (1st)
  • 2023 (Vikings): 49.5% (1st)
  • 2021 (Dolphins): 38.6% (2nd)
  • 2020 (Dolphins): 36.1% (6th)
  • 2019 (Dolphins): 29.9% (10th)

The strategy has certainly worked: The Vikings ranked ninth in pressure rate (38%) over the past two seasons and improved their scoring defense from 13th to fifth. Hell yeah!

Minnesota Vikings Prediction for 2025

The Vikings boast a modest 8.5 win total ahead of 2025, and honestly, it's my favorite OVER I've come across so far.

KOC has posted 13, seven, and 14 wins during his three seasons leading the squad, and now might just have himself his best QB yet. Throw in what sure looks like an improved defense line thanks to the presence of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, and I need to stop writing to bet this right now!

For my bold fantasy-related call: Jordan Mason will return legit RB1 production during his (hopefully for Aaron Jones' sake) brief stint as the team's lead back when pushed into action.