The Commanders overachieved in a major way during year one of the Jayden Daniels-Dan Quinn partnership, making it all the way to the NFC Championship before the clock struck midnight on their fairytale story.

While that 55-23 loss exposed a Washington defense that was more meh than good throughout the season, there's still little doubt that Daniels had this offense absolutely humming during his rookie campaign.

Washington Commanders in 2024:

  • Points per game: 28.1 (5th)
  • EPA per dropback: +0.21 (4th)
  • EPA per rush: +0.03 (4th)
  • Points per game against: 23 (18th)

Suddenly, expectations are much higher ahead of 2025, and for good reason: More weapons have been added to the offense (what's up Deebo Samuel!), and the front office traded for a hopeful franchise left tackle in Laremy Tunsil.

The ceiling might as well be the roof for this squad if Daniels manages to take anything close to resembling a year-two leap.

Commanders 2025 Team Preview

With all this in mind, today we'll break down some of the biggest (mostly fantasy-related) questions facing the Commanders ahead of 2025.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

What is stopping Jayden Daniels from being THE fantasy QB1 this year?

The 2024 NFL Draft's second overall pick is fresh off turning in one of the position's most productive rookie seasons … ever.

Most fantasy points per game from a rookie QB in NFL history (min. 8 starts):

  1. Cam Newton (23.1)
  2. Justin Herbert (22.2)
  3. Robert Griffin (21.2)
  4. Jayden Daniels (20.9)

Yes, Daniels' lethal ability on the ground was a big reason for this: His 891 rush yards and six scores resulted in a whopping 7.8 fantasy points per game from strictly rushing production–a mark which tied Josh Allen and only trailed Anthony Richardson (7.8) and Jalen Hurts (9.8) in 2024.

Also yes, it was the rising second-year talent's already polished passing ability that should really have fans and fantasy managers alike excited ahead of next season: Daniels posted the same EPA per dropback (+0.15) as Joe f*cking Burrow, and his +3.5% completion percentage over expected was good for the 10th highest mark in the league—better than Patrick Mahomes (+2.6%)!

Ultimately, the only players to finish as fantasy's overall QB1 since 2018 are Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. That's it. Daniels' ability to join this group is contingent on his rushing floor remaining sky high and experiencing a spike in production through the air–something that is certainly possible after posting relatively beatable marks in pass TD rate (5.2%, 8th) and yards per attempt (7.4, 13th) last season.

Jayden Daniels Fantasy Football Outlook for 2025

It's tough to rationally rank Daniels ahead of either Jackson or Allen due to their demonstrated superior passing upside, but the potential for the Commanders franchise QB of the present and future to take a step forward in that department has at least earned him overall QB3 status over Jalen Hurts.

Is Brian Robinson a late-round RB drafter's delight?

The Commanders were a popular dark horse player in the RB market during free agency and the draft this offseason. And yet, the only somewhat meaningful addition they wound up making was adding New Mexico/Arizona product Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Round 7.

This means Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are once again poised to lead an offense that racked up the league's fifth-most total rush attempts last season. Now, part of this was simply the Commanders' ability to play with plenty of leads (their dropback over expectation rate was actually an above-average +1%), but hey, that could certainly be a reality again in 2025 should Daniels and company manage to build on their success.

Now for the tricky part: Discerning what exactly this rotation could look like in 2025 when both B-Rob and Ekeler are operating at full health. We unfortunately don't have the best sample size for this, as the former back missed three games and was limited in others while dealing with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, while the latter had to sit out five full games stemming from two concussions.

Accordingly, the team's three-game playoff stretch with both RBs healthy is probably our best bet to go off. The backfield usage was as follows:

 

Robinson is the thunder who has the chance to flirt with 15-plus carries when the Commanders can build a lead, and Ekeler is the lightning who should see more action when Washington is forced into a trailing game script.

Note that B-Rob easily led the way in carries inside the five-yard line (11 vs. 5) on the season, although the presence of Daniels (10) didn't help matters for either.

That latter variable is the primary "issue" with being overly excited about either RB ahead of 2025. Obviously Daniels is a baller, but high-volume dual-threat QBs historically haven't been great for the fantasy success of their RBs due to: 1) Scrambling more often than they check down, and 2) Factoring into the rushing equation near the goal line.

The real path to success for either Robinson or Ekeler comes down to one of them taking over the backfield via an injury. While Washington did (annoyingly) insist on keeping guys like Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez involved when either of their top-two backs missed time, both Robinson and Ekeler did post multiple games with a snap rate north of 70%–that sort of near every-down role could go a LONG way in fantasy land inside an offense that most expect to (again) finish as a top-10 scoring unit.

Are Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler Fantasy Targets in 2025?

Robinson and Ekeler profile as poor men's versions of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs: An evenly split backfield between RBs used differently, but we don't feel as good about the overall offense, and have to deal with a far more mobile QB.

That said, both Commanders RBs have underappreciated "handcuff" upside if the other goes down, making each more-than-solid mid-to-late round investments on rosters that largely faded the position in early rounds.

Are Terry McLaurin *and* Deebo Samuel capable of putting up big-time fantasy numbers?

Expecting McLaurin to put up big-time numbers shouldn't be a hot take after the 29-year-old veteran posted a career-best WR14 finish in PPR points per game last season. The high-end consistency was truly something to marvel at: McLaurin's 11 top-18 PPR finishes surpassed even Justin Jefferson (10) and Ja'Marr Chase (10) for the position's best mark.

Now, the artist known as Scary Terry had previously posted WR29, WR20, WR30, WR23, and WR36 season-long finishes in PPR points per game. 2024 was admittedly an outlier of sorts, although the reality that it came alongside McLaurin finally experiencing above-average QB play lends credence to the idea that the high-end production wasn't a fluke.

I have a little bit tougher time simply writing off Samuel's down campaign as variance. The 2024 version of Samuel simply wasn't on par with what fans were used to seeing. Brutal efficiency numbers as both a rusher and receiver resulted in the least productive season of the 29-year-old veteran's career.

Samuel combined receiving and rushing yards per game and total TDs by season:

  • 2024: 53.7 yards per game, 4 total TD
  • 2023: 74.5, 12
  • 2022: 66.5, 5
  • 2021: 110.6, 14
  • 2020: 59.6, 1
  • 2019: 64.1, 6

Of course, some context could help explain why Samuel struggled so much in 2024. Maybe Father Time simply came for the typically electric WR/RB hybrid, or maybe that September calf strain lingered more than we knew. He also suffered a rib injury during Week 8 against the Cowboys … right after he had ended up in the hospital with pneumonia!

I am NOT a doctor, but dealing with calf and rib injuries on top of an illness bad enough to require multiple nights spent inside a hospital doesn't exactly seem ideal. Samuel averaged 77.2 total yards per game during his first five games of the season before the latter rib and illness issues, compared to just 46.7 during his final nine contests. His efficiency on per-target (10.5 vs. 6.8) and per-reception (16.8 vs. 10.8) bases told the same story.

Overall, Samuel averaged 14.1 PPR points per game (WR25) in Weeks 1-6 last season before the rib/illness issues, compared to 9.4 (WR54) in Weeks 8-17. Small sample size, sure, but then again, the latter disappointing stretch also doesn't exactly supersede, you know, the previous five years of excellence from the longtime baller.

To summarize: Deebo wasn't very good in 2024 after largely doing nothing but ball the hell out during the five seasons of his career, but his early-season performance does suggest that perhaps illness and rib injuries played bigger roles than we realized, and he now finds himself inside an offense that needs a YAC-monster of his caliber to make the most out of their abundance of screen opportunities.

How Do The Commanders WRs Project For Fantasy Football in 2025?

It might be tough for McLaurin to match last season's gaudy 13 TDs, but he still profiles as the clear-cut No. 1 target for one of the league's best young QBs. That alone makes him worthy of mid-tier WR2 treatment, while Samuel is more of a borderline WR3 who fantasy managers are hoping can get back to partying like it's 2023 again.

That said, Deebo is still "just" 29 years old and projects for triple-digit combined carries and targets; there's some "2024 pre-injury Chris Godwin" potential here should the motivated playmaker manage to rekindle his previous form.

Will Zach Ertz keep getting away with it?

Ben Sinnott truthers were forced to watch the twitchy second-rounder catch just five passes all season long, failing to beat out John Bates on the depth chart, let alone old man Zach Ertz.

The 34-year-old veteran is fresh off posting his best numbers since 2021, as his 66-654-7 receiving line was good for TE10 status in PPR points per game. Ertz's season-ending 11-104-0 revenge game special against the Eagles was more evidence that the old man still has some gas in the tank.

Even more wild was the reality that Ertz actively functioned as Jayden Daniels' No. 2 pass-game option throughout the season. Obviously Terry McLaurin (117 targets) easily led the way, but Ertz (91) finished far ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus (64) and Noah Brown (56).

Say what you will about Ertz's after-the-catch ability (he did hurdle a man!), but he's consistently managed to demand targets at a high level even in his later years. Just look at 2023 with the Cardinals when Ertz managed to post a 23.4% target per route run (6th!) before getting injured and giving way to Trey McBride.

Is Zach Ertz A Late-Round TE Sleeper?

35 next November, Ertz's best football is certainly in the rear-view mirror; just realize he's still good enough to out-slow plenty of linebackers around the league and accordingly is capable of keeping a younger, more exciting TE firmly on the bench (see: Sinnott, Ben).

Don't be surprised to see him on the cover of Week 2 Waiver Wire articles after catching seven passes for 53 yards and a TD.

How much easier does a dual-threat QB make life for a team's run blocking?

Offenses' willingness to utilize the read option has made dual-threat QBs more dangerous than ever in recent years due to the gravity that they tend to have on the football field. Think about a fast QB like a deadly three-point shooter in basketball: Defenses need to be aware of where they are at all moments, and their sheer threat of doing something cool accordingly pulls defenders out of position.

To try and measure this, I went ahead and looked at every team's RB yards before contact ranks for the ~10 best dual-threat QBs of the last 10 years when they were able to start at least eight games. I just used career rushing yards per game to get 40 qualified seasons, and the results were as follows:

  • The average rank in team RB yards before contact per carry in our baller dual-threat QB group: 11.4
  • The median rank: 9.5
  • 28 of the 40 qualified seasons (70%) put forward an above-average rank

Bottom line: Last year's Commanders ranked 10th–don't be surprised if Robinson and Ekeler again have plenty of space to run, thanks in large part to defenders continuing to be awfully worried about Daniels skirting free around the edge.

Washington Commanders 2025 Prediction

Expectations for the Commanders are suddenly quite high and reflected in their 9.5 win total ahead of 2025. This is the second-highest mark in the NFC East behind only the Eagles (11.5).

Based on Daniels' ascension and overall roster improvements, I'm taking OVER 9.5 wins for this aggressive-minded team who didn't back down from any challenges in 2024.

My bold fantasy-specific take is that Robinson will score 12-plus total touchdowns on his way to a top-20 finish in PPR points per game. Hail to the Commanders!