So, I finally watched Sinners last week.

First off, forgive me. I’ve felt the gravity of its cultural significance since opening day. But, as soon as the digital option was available, my wife and I cleared our calendars. I was ready, too. My bowl of dinner was in hand. The accompanying beverage was safely in a cup holder. It was time. However, my mind made the only sensible decision after Annie stopped talking, and I saw Preacher Boy pull up in the Chevelle covered in blood.

I put my food down. I couldn’t eat. 

Time became an abstract concept as I watched one of the best storytelling experiences unfold. I’ll admit I realized two-plus hours had passed, but it didn’t feel like it. The same can happen while watching football. A key series or even a single play can last what feels like forever. Still, measuring that time, even something as simple as how long it takes for a QB to throw, can tell us a lot about the passer and their upside as a fantasy asset. 

The Definition of Time To Throw

“Time to throw measures the average span from the snap to when the QB releases the football.”

This description sounds a lot simpler than the last few metrics we’ve explored. We’re not comparing one thing to another. The word ‘relative’ is nowhere in sight. All we have to do is count the beats post-snap. But, depending on the QB, you’ll need a stopwatch handy. 

 

Joe Burrow (aka “My Quarterback”) can paper over his lack of mobility or concerns about arm strength with arm talent. He can rip a ball into almost any tight window. His 14-yard gain to Ja’Marr Chase back in Week 5 of the ’23 season was no different.

In real time, there’s a hint of fluidity to the action. Snap, quick dropback, let it fly. Burrow added 1.6 expected points on the play by resetting the downs and moving the team closer to Arizona’s goal line. Threading the ball through two defenders only had about a 70.0% chance of working, so the completion was ~30.0% over expected. All of that happened because of a decision that took 1.8 seconds. Although, we’ve seen better results occur when things take a bit longer to develop.

 

Jesus, I see what you’ve done for other people, and I want that for me. Honestly, is giving Burrow a similar protection unit too much to ask? Anyway, I digress.

Again, in the moment, it felt like Jalen Hurts had all night to launch the ball. When Joe Tryon-Shoyinka’s pass rush created a gap to Hurts’s right, I thought the play would end in a scramble. But Hurts went through his progressions and tacked on 4.7 expected points after Olamide Zaccheaus found the end zone. Hurts’s completion rate was 75.6% over expected based on the depth and location of the throw. It was a big-time play by a big-time QB. But I doubt you’d be surprised if I told you 5.4 seconds went by as Hurts looked downfield.

Of course, one instance doesn’t describe a QB. Burrow has bought time in the pocket to keep Cincinnati marching down the field. Hurts can run quick game concepts. But their time-to-throw averages over a game or season can tell us something about them. Sure, the Bengals’ offensive line or the Eagles’ WRs might influence their decisions, but we can tease out parts of their play style from how long they like to hold on to the ball.

Why Does Time to Throw Matter?

We don’t have access to a QB’s vision after the snap. Or, better yet, we can’t be sure how they’re interpreting what they see once bodies start flying around. Their ability to process (or guess, in some cases) where to put the ball becomes a weapon. And sometimes, taking the extra beat to let a play develop can turn into a highlight. 

 

Imagine if this was Anthony Richardson’s last (positive) memorable moment as the Colts’ QB.

Regardless, seeing Richardson regain his balance to heave the ball downfield was part of his allure. Big game hunters like him, Jameis Winston, Jordan Love, or Trevor Lawrence, can flip the field on a single play. But explosives can’t happen in the blink of an eye.

Let’s be real. Unless your team has (healthy) Tyreek Hill or Xavier Worthy streaking down the field after each snap, their WRs will need time to get in position. Richardson’s bomb to Alec Pierce took 3.6 seconds from hike to hurl. I don’t know about you, but giving someone at least a few ticks to run 50 yards seems reasonable. Accordingly, we see a minor correlation between passing aDOT and time to throw (TTT).

To be fair, QBs hanging in the pocket aren’t always looking for a deep strike. Some might be unsure of what they see. Others may still be learning the position (see Williams, Caleb). Either way, in the aggregate, time to throw gives us another window into a QB’s play style. However, the takeaways aren’t always positive.

 

Understandably, dancing in the pocket requires the big guys in front of the QB to hold their blocks. And occasionally, more than a couple of seconds is asking too much. The protection breaks. Chaos ensues. Anyway, how often a defense puts a passer under duress goes hand in hand with how long they hold onto the ball.

Again, let’s add some context. In the above case of C.J. Stroud, we know he didn’t suddenly lose his ability to read a defense. Miami had his number in Week 15. Plus, if your second-best receiving options were Tank Dell (who played more than 80.0% of the snaps just once in ’24), John Metchie, and Robert Woods, you might hesitate, too. Playing behind a bottom-12 line in pass-block win rate wouldn’t help either. In other words, there can be factors outside of the QB affecting their rhythm. 

From play calling to receiver rapport, a QB invites pressure by keeping the ball. They don’t all play for the Eagles. Eventually, a defender will get through. But notice how I didn’t try to connect a QB’s average TTT to their sack or interception rate. Those outcomes can be the aftermath of defensive pressure. But they’re not the only result.

 

While unintended, scrambles can spike the fantasy point total of any QB. For reference, Josh Allen racked up 72.1% of his total rushing output in 2024 on scrambles alone. All of Patrick Mahomes’ 333 rushing yards were unintended. And there’s no question about how QB mobility is a plus for fantasy purposes. Luckily, there’s a way to spot who might try to boogie out in the open field versus going down behind the line of scrimmage.

Think of scrambling as a last resort. If a QB wanted to run, that would have been the intent of the play. There wouldn’t be a pause. They’d charge forward (hopefully through a hole created by their offensive line). But as a passer, knowing you have the speed and agility to take matters into your hands (or legs, as it were) is part of the waiting period.

Lamar Jackson can turn a would-be loss into a chunk gain. Jayden Daniels instantly announced to the league he’d be a problem if forced to break containment. Brock Purdy and Bo Nix also kept defenses guessing. The list goes on, but ultimately, we can start to gauge a QB’s floor and ceiling just by looking at their average time to throw.

How Can You Use Time to Throw in Fantasy Football?

I’ll be honest. I had to rack my brain for a bit to find legitimate uses for a QB’s average time to throw. No, it’s not because we can’t apply it. There are metrics with a higher priority.

For instance, let’s pull together what we’ve learned about TTT.

  • It can influence passing depth.
  • Sitting in the pocket invites more pressure.
  • Increased scrambling (i.e., rushing production) can come from a high pressure rate.

However, I don’t need time to throw to tell me about a passer’s aDOT. I can look it up. The same goes for pressure and scramble rate. But there are a couple of indications we can tease out of time to throw.

 

New England’s defense had Zach Wilson seeing double back in Week 2 of his rookie season. He threw four picks that day. At 2.9, 3.6, 2.8, and 3.8 seconds in the pocket on each turnover, you can feel Wilson’s uncertainty. So, I looked at the average TTTs for rookie passers over the last ten seasons. The guys on the slow end aren’t too much of a surprise.

Of course, seeing Josh Allen on a list with Wilson and Kenny Pickett should stop us from jumping to conclusions. Or, at the very least, give young QBs time to develop. But when looking at the freshmen signal callers with a faster trigger finger, there’s a clear contrast.

Outside of Beathard, the guys who could grip it and rip it showcased above-average accuracy to go with their quick processing. And no, they didn’t “cheat” by keeping their passes short. If anything, Burrow’s 8.5 air yards per attempt in ’20 lent credence to the idea Cincinnati’s aerial attack needed more playmakers. 

All of this to say, if we’re noticing a delay in Cam Ward’s decision-making through the first few weeks of the season, I’d hope for personnel or coaching changes in Tennessee sooner rather than later. However, when it comes to veterans, we need to apply a little more nuance.

 

Brocky Purdy is another case where increased time to throw isn’t necessarily a negative. But we can use it to characterize his evolution as a passer. Let’s look at how he’s operated over the last three years.

  • 2024: 2.84 (TTT), 8.6 (air yards per attempt)
  • 2023: 2.69, 8.2
  • 2022: 2.66, 6.6

No wonder Purdy’s impact on the offense was hard to separate. He could quickly release the ball, and one of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or George Kittle would take care of the rest. But injuries removed most of those options, including Christian McCaffrey, from the 49ers’ offense. And still, Purdy was fifth in EPA per dropback. He took more chances downfield (aDOT), knowing he could still make a positive play if his protection broke down (fourth-highest scramble rate. All of which coincided with his willingness to hang in the pocket and live in the chaos just a bit longer.