The flesh is weak…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Paramount+:
Two 0-3 teams in a shootout?!
Morning Download: No Jimmy G
QUICK HITTER: Bet on Anthony Richardson’s return?
Updates on Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb
Bets from the Group Chat: Tutu?! Not just an outfit choice.
Hidden Gems: Two dual-threat QBs to target.
It’s 10/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
The 0-3 Broncos and 0-3 Bears—two teams with historically bad defenses—will square off today in the ultimate toilet bowl…
or will they?
Despite a matchup involving one team who just gave up 70 points and another team in an organizational tailspin, this unholy pairing still project for the third highest scoring game on the week (46.5 point total):
🚀 Justin Fields finally unleashed?
It’s been a brutal start to the season for Fields. He finished as the QB21 in Week 2 and the QB24 in Week 3. His completion rate is fourth-worst in the NFL (57%), which puts him in Zach Wilson territory.
But this is the ultimate get right spot. The Broncos are a historically bad defense across every single metric:
Overall defense: 40.4 (32nd)
Run defense: 41.3 (31st)
Tackling: 28.9 (32nd)
Pass rush: 63.7 (27th)
Coverage: 42.0 (31st)
As Dwain noted in his rankings write-up, Fields’ rushing ability (he still leads the QB position with 25 total rushing attempts) gives him paths to a legitimate blowup game.
It’s why I’ve been scrolling down for him as a Hidden Gem in this week’s Underdog Fantasy contests and why you should feel comfortable starting him as a Top 10 QB option.
🙏 Can Javonte Williams get going?
Williams getting off to a slow start was somewhat expected, but that was more from a workload perspective. He’s now leading the Broncos rushing attack (55.4% of the attempts), but it’s his efficiency that has been surprisingly poor:
He’s behind Najee Harris and Devin Singletary in success rate (30.6%) and has fewer explosive plays (3) than Alexander Mattison.
Chris Allen
Similar to the Broncos defense providing a bounce-back spot for Fields, this atrocious Bears rush defense—who have given up a TD to every lead back they’ve faced this season—provide an opportunity for Williams to get back on track.
We have him ranked as a consensus RB2 for today:
🧨 Splash play candidates!
If this game is going to turn into a shootout, we are going to need some big plays.
Luckily, both of these teams have the personnel to do so.
With Chase Claypool a health scratch today, the Bears offense could really condense around DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, and also open up a few more deep shot looks for Darnell Mooney.
Both Moore and Mooney are averaging an aDOT (average depth of target) greater than 10, which indicates some big plays are coming.
On the Broncos side, you are well aware of the Marvin Mims situation by now. He’s barely on the field (23% of the routes on the year), but has been absolutely electric when Sean Payton gives him opportunities, as Ian notes here:
PFF receiving grade: 85.7 (No. 7)
Yards per route run: 7.22 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 27.9 (No. 4)
Yards after the catch per reception: 7.3 (No. 8)
There are some whispers out there that Mims could see an increased role today.
If that’s true, he could easily explode for a couple big plays. I don’t mind starting him in a pinch, and I love scrolling down for him in Underdog contests and slotting him in DFS tournament lineups.
🛠️ Everything you need for Week 4
Read on for more info in the Morning Download on the Raiders turning to a rookie QB, injuries piling up for the Chargers, and an update on Deshaun Watson.
For everything else you need for Week 4—including our Inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates—you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
👀 Want to Watch What Miami Does Next??
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1:00 pm ET Kick-Off
Denver at Chicago
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Baltimore at Cleveland
Pittsburgh at Houston
4:05 pm ET Kick-Off
Las Vegas at LA Chargers
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There’s always a flurry of overnight news to process on Sunday mornings. Matt LaMarca is here to catch you up on the most important updates to guide your lineup decisions today…
We’re getting into the belly of the beast. The NFL regular season is no joke, and the injuries continue to pile up heading into Week 4. There are a number of key injuries to keep an eye on this Sunday, but we did get a few key updates on Saturday.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest news you may have missed this weekend:
📉 Jimmy Garoppolo Ruled Out
The Raiders brought in Garoppolo to replace Derek Carr, and he’s done a decent job so far. He’s 14th in EPA + CPOE, and more importantly for fantasy purposes, he knows how to get the ball to his best players. Davante Adams, Jacoby Meyers, and Josh Jacobs have combined for a target share north of 85%, so it’s been one of the most condensed offenses in football.
With Garoppolo sidelined, it makes the rest of the offense extremely risky. You’re obviously not benching Adams, but Meyers becomes a WR3 at best.
The Raiders will turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell, who represents a clear downgrade for the offense, but is an intriguing DFS option ($4,000 salary) or streaming candidate for Superflex leagues:
🚑️ Injuries Piling Up for Chargers
The only silver lining for the Raiders is that the Chargers are also dealing with a TON of injuries. They lost Mike Williams to a season-ending injury in Week 3, while Austin Ekeler hasn’t suited up since Week 1.
Ekeler is doubtful to return to the lineup vs. the Raiders, but he’s not alone. Joey Bosa and Derwin James are also doubtful, while center Corey Linsley has been ruled out. That means the Chargers will likely be without multiple key contributors on both sides of the ball.
While it remains to be seen if the Raiders can take advantage of the Chargers’ defensive injuries, it does open up some opportunities for the rest of the Chargers’ offense.
Keenan Allen cements his status as a slam-dunk WR1, and he’s the No. 5 wide receiver in our Week 4 rankings. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnson also enter the flex conversation, while Joshua Kelley is a viable RB2. He’s stunk up the joint in his two previous games without Ekeler, but he’s had strong utilization in those outings.
🤔 Deshaun Watson – Will He or Won’t He?
The Browns are sending mixed signals when it comes to their starting quarterback. He’s officially listed as questionable, but he was able to get in three limited practices. Watson told reporters that he’s going to play in this contest, and the latest reports are that the team expects Watson to suit up.
That said, calling up Walker to the active roster isn’t the most encouraging sign for Watson’s status. I think it’s possible the team is downplaying the severity of this injury, so don’t be surprised if Watson is a true game-time decision.
One way or another, points figure to be at a premium in this matchup. The Browns’ defense is elite, the Ravens are banged up, and Watson hasn’t been particularly good even at full strength. The total on this game has already dipped significantly, currently residing at 38.5 on BetMGM.
I’ve already locked in a play on the under in our free Bet Tracker, and this number could fall even further before kickoff. If Watson is unable to go, this number could absolutely plummet.
Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 4 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Bringing you one of the latest from ClevTA…
🚁 The WR going off for 9-144-2 today. The chopper has spoken.
🤷 A status update on Jonathan Taylor. All quiet on the trade talk front.
🙈 Note to self: never become a college football security guard. Tough scene.
😡 Bad news for the Cardinals. It may be a long time until we see Kyler.
🙏 A scare for David Njoku. Not ideal, but he’s in good spirits.
🤔 Will Derek Carr play vs. the Bucs? An update here.
💰 Need some last-minute bets? Rhetorical question, we know you do.
🚑️ Nick Chubb undergoes surgery. There’s hope he’ll return in 2024.
🔮 How to handle Saquon Barkley for MNF. Tips from Matthew here.
Welcome to Week 4 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where Geoff elicits as much information as he can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as he’ll probably be using some of their plays to offset his own losers.
Let’s get to it…
📈 Logan Thomas Over 2.5 receptions (+105, BetMGM)
On top of getting plus money to take the over on Thomas, the Eagles have been a terrific matchup for opposing TEs. They have good boundary corners that tend to push the action towards the middle of the field and the TE can also act as an outlet for teams against Philadelphia’s pass rush.
We saw the Commanders pepper Thomas with targets in Week 1 against a surprisingly good Cardinals pass rush in much the same manner. Thomas had a 25% team target share in Week 1 against Arizona (the only full game he’s played thus far) and an 86% catchable target rate (7.0-yard ADOT).
Thus far, Sam Howell has been reluctant (or unable) to throw the ball much downfield to his wide receivers and has directed 31% of his targets to Washington’s TEs. While Thomas may lose a few targets to his backups at that rate there should still be enough work for him to go over on this small total.
✍️ Milestones and Alternative Lines
With these we’re looking at players who have big enough upside that if they do go over on their regular totals (O/U) they may end up doing so by a large margin – and cashing these milestones at big odds…
📈 Roshon Johnson 50+ (+248, BetMGM)
The Johnson breakout is coming. The rookie has been the Bears’ most efficient rusher on the season, averaging 5.29 yards per carry, and has seen his usage rise every week.
He’s slowly sneaking his way up on Khalil Herbert in the early down carry department.
The Broncos’ struggles at this point on defense are also well-known.
They are last in defensive DVOA and allowed a hellacious 8.1 yards per carry against the Dolphins. The Bears have nothing to lose at this point and would likely be well served by giving their rookie more touches.
Everything seems to be aligning here from a usage and matchup standpoint to make Johnson a great alternate/milestones target in Week 4.
📈 Tutu Atwell 75+ / 100+ receiving yards (+158 / +380, BetMGM)
I’ve written about this spot numerous times already this week.
Despite having a great matchup against the Colts secondary (7th most yards allowed to opposing WRs) and a 14.3 yards per reception mark, his O/U totals for Week 4 are far below teammate Puka Nacua…a difference that doesn’t really make sense given how good he has been at making big plays.
You can take the over on the regular line of 51.5 yards (I did) but if you want to play for the big game I really like these two milestones.
The Rams are 6th in pass play percentage and both of these teams are top 10 in plays per game. It’s a combination of a potentially great game environment and longer odds, on an undervalued player, that make Atwell a fantastic alternate line target for Week 4.
More Week 4 Bets from the Group Chat
Everyone knows the best plays. Jalen Hurts, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce. But what about the sleepers no one else is on? Those are the guys that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In this weekly piece, Pete will go treasure hunting for Hidden Gems that you can draft in Battle Royale contests on Underdog Fantasy and in DFS contests.
With everyone loading up on Dolphins and Bills (and rightfully so), Week 4 sets up as another great week to get contrarian and hunt for gems in Underdog Fantasy’s contests.
Below, I’ve identified two specific game environments, as well as a sneaky RB, that you should consider scrolling down for in Underdog drafts or plugging into your DFS lineups.
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
💪 QBs: Anthony Richardson & Justin Fields
ADPs: 34+; Drafted less than 20% of the time
Richardson (QB7) and Fields (QB9) are both going outside the Top 6 selections in Underdog contests right now. Neither are “sneaky” per se, but they are beneficiaries of the “QB ADP Cliff” where positional settings limit only 6 QB selections in each draft.
So even though Richardson and Fields project similarly to Kirk Cousins (QB5) and Lamar Jackson (QB6), their popularity is wildly different because people are so anchored to ADP when drafting.
Check out these drafted percentages compiled from Chad’s data:
Cousins: 75%
Jackson: 56%
Fields: 20%
Richardson: 17%
The discount on Richardson stems from him missing Week 3 with a concussion, but he practiced in full this week and now gets a home start in the game with the third-highest total on the slate:
Richardson’s rushing upside and “tushy pushy” TD equity near the goal line make him an awesome selection this week if these sub-20 % field exposure numbers continue to hold.
As for Fields, we are getting an “organizational collapse” discount, but if there’s one entity who could single-handedly get an offense back on track, it’s the Denver Broncos “defense” who just gave up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins:
Check out these stats on the Denver defense from PFF (h/t Dwain):
Overall defense: 40.4 (32nd)
Run defense: 41.3 (31st)
Tackling: 28.9 (32nd)
Pass rush: 63.7 (27th)
Coverage: 42.0 (31st)
The nice thing about both of these QBs is that you don’t have to force stacks thanks to how much production they derive from their legs, but the potential shootout game environments also make it viable to layer in 1-2 more pieces from the game (read on for some WR/TE ideas).
Bonus: I certainly prefer Fields, but Russell Wilson (35.8) is also a way to attack this spot, especially if you take the Broncos WR I’m going to hype up below.
You can try your hand at Battle Royale on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $500 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!
