Bo Nix Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Bo Nix Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 234.7 overall (QB35), rookie QB6
Bo Nix is a former five-star recruit and was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 class … one spot ahead of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
Like Daniels, Nix’s career didn’t start and end in the same place. While Nix became Auburn’s first freshman starting QB since 1946, the Tigers ranked just 28th, 90th, and 68th in scoring alongside underwhelming 9-4, 6-5, and 6-7 records during his three years as their starter.
Of course, context helps explain the slow career start a bit better. Nix’s offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham left for Florida State after just one season at Auburn, and a fractured ankle certainly didn’t help matters down the stretch of 2021.
Enter The Oregon Ducks, who brought in Nix and proceeded to lead all Power-Five schools in offensive TDs (146), yards per play (7.4), and EPA per play (+0.3) during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Naturally, the (at this point) veteran QB was a big reason why.
Nix among 89 Power Five QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2022-23:
- PFF pass grade: 91.3 (tied for No. 2)
- Passer rating: 126.1 (No. 1)
- Yards per attempt: 9.2 (No. 7)
- Adjusted completion rate: 84% (No. 1)
Overall, no Power 5 QB scored more total TDs than Nix (94) over the last two seasons. Hell, Caleb Williams (93) was the only other signal-caller within 15 scores of him.
Now for the elephant in the room: Nix is old. He turned 24 back in February, making him just 142 days younger than rising fourth-year pro Trevor Lawrence.
There’s also the reality that Nix played in one of the coziest offensive environments in continental America. How much of what we saw was him being great, and how much was more so due to his playmakers and scheme?
Good questions – let’s try to figure them the f*ck out.
Note: I watched the all-22 copies of the 2022 Georgia, 2023 Washington (x2), 2023 Utah, 2023 Arizona State and 2023 Stanford games specifically in preparation for this article.
Pros and Cons - Bo Nix
Pros
Tough to stop when in rhythm
My top five Nix comps reflect this:
- Baker Mayfield with less arm talent
- Homeless man's Tony Romo
- Gardner Minshew without flow
- Less dynamic Jalen Hurts
- Post-2017 Carson Wentz
As evidenced by his aforementioned ridiculously great 84% adjusted completion rate at Oregon: There are games where Nix hardly ever lets the football hit the ground. He broke the freaking FBS record for single-season completion percentage (77.4) for crying out loud (per Dane Brugler).
This was certainly due to the Ducks’ desire to get the ball out of Nix’s hands quickly. His 7.1-yard average target depth ranked 86th among 89 qualified Power 5 QBs over the past two seasons, and his 2.52-second average time to throw was tied for 77th. Nearly 30 percent of his passes were thrown behind the line of scrimmage in 2023.
There’s also the reality that Oregon ran a pretty QB-friendly offense:
Oregon offensive ranks among 69 Power 5 schools 2022-23
- RPO rate: 28% (No. 16)
- Screen rate: 24.1% (No. 5)
- Play-action rate: 32.7% (No. 22)
Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt summed up Nix’s game well when discussing the possibility of the Oregon product landing in Denver:
“The guy that I think fits best in that mold as an experienced, smart, point guard-style, accurate passer, ball in the right spot at the right moment is Bo Nix from Oregon. … Nix at No. 12 makes so much sense to me for Denver because of the fit of his style, what his strengths are, and what Sean Payton wants out of the quarterback.”
The point guard note is a great callout, but don’t confuse this with Nix being a stationary or weak-armed passer.
Athletic enough to stress a defense vertically and horizontally
Remember everything I just said about Nix being more than willing to consistently take what the defense is giving him?
Well, that is true – but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a bit of a wild child hidden beneath the surface.
There are more examples of sack-avoidance goodness that help paint a clearer picture of the popular Tony Romo comp. The man’s ability to limit sacks (6 total in all of 2023!) is one of the best features of Nix’s game. It’s also good to see his 7.3 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production over the past two seasons stack up so favorably with Caleb Williams (8.6).
As for the vertical element, Nix doesn’t have a bazooka, but at a minimum, the arm strength is fine enough. There are plenty of examples of him accurately hitting receivers deep downfield on the run and from the pocket alike. Nix also deserves credit for thriving when throwing across the middle of the field in general.
In short: Nix doesn’t have overwhelming speed or arm strength, but it’s good enough to keep defenses at least honest about defending all areas of the football field. Maybe not to the same extent as the expected top-three QBs in the draft; just realize we aren’t looking at a statue or noodle-armed signal-caller here.
Cons
The man is old
And that’s typically not been a great sign over the years.
That list isn’t completely full of busts, but not every elderly QB turns into Joe Burrow at the next level. Kudos to Nix for improving drastically throughout his collegiate career, but simply comparing his 2023 season against the other top QB prospects doesn’t quite tell the whole story.
How would we have felt about Nix had he simply declared for the draft after his Auburn years? Are his attributes essentially maxed out at this point? They are fair questions for a prospect more than two years older than Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy.
How much of this was simply due to a great offensive environment?
This was arguably the single most QB-friendly situation in college football last season.
Obviously, Nix was the straw that stirred the drink, but there were a LOT of easy places to go with the football during his two seasons at Oregon, and having the fifth-ranked run game in yards per carry (5.9) didn’t hurt either. Oh yeah, this offensive line also allowed the Power 5’s single-lowest pressure rate (17.6%) during his time in town.
Nix did what he was supposed to do inside an elite offense: He supplied elite production. Still, there’s a reason why we value Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over guys like Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa when it comes to ranking QBs. There’s nothing wrong with being a system QB, but that system better be damn good if it’s going to return high-end results.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Bo Nix
The final draft capital afforded to Nix will give us a better idea of just how high his 2024 ceiling really is. There simply isn’t a great track record of non-day-one QBs going on to produce big-time fantasy results.
Landing in Denver at pick No. 12 and getting the full support of Sean Payton? We’re in business.
Joining the Falcons in Round 2 as a backup/long-term development QB? All of a sudden things aren’t looking too hot.
Ultimately, Nix gives me a lot of Andy Dalton vibes: If his surrounding pieces and offensive environment are great, there’s a decent chance the corresponding offense will be solid. If not? Look out. This QB archetype isn’t the sexiest thing in the world and accordingly doesn’t warrant a Round 1 selection in dynasty land, but don’t count out Nix (again) finding his way to fantasy relevance should he (again) land in an offense willing to give him the keys.
I’m tentatively prioritizing Nix ahead of Michael Penix Jr. as my pre-draft QB5 behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy, but I do believe it’s a four-member tier behind the big two talents at the top.
